There are two types of people
The first will sell their dollars
The second will hold on to theirs.
In a couple of weeks, one lot will be hailed as geniuses, the others as world class idiots. The genii will go on to write books and appear on breakfast tv. The idiots will moan about how they forgot the basics.
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Previously on "Will China start unloading US bonds / dollars?"
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Opportunity to buy on the dips ? I find myself with a significant cash position at the moment and I am steadily buying index trackers as the market drifts lower. Kept some powder dry too which I will wedge in on any big steps down.
They will not default, they will bounce the ceiling after the posturing has been done and points made.
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Originally posted by scooterscot View PostTouché
Are you still working in Germany?
I agree with you about the house of cards. It is driving the layman that pays attention to the point of distraction just not knowing.
The one rather sobering thought I had last night was "there must be a reason no one cares". Perhaps the timeline is set, and the powers that be just keep pumping up the tyres when they go flat no matter how many times they have to pull over and do that as they know they will still reach their destination in time.
For your benefit, the metaphor above describes the bicycle with punctures as the global economy and the elite as the cyclist. When the cyclist reaches his destination the bike is discarded.
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Originally posted by suityou01 View Post
How are you this thick?
Are you still working in Germany?
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Originally posted by suityou01 View PostPut in simple terms for PooperScooter :
1) China can't sell off it's USD without triggering a financial collapse.
2) America can't default without triggering a financial collapse.
Anything outside these known truths is unthinkable.
HTH
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Originally posted by Freamon View PostObviously if the US defaults then all bets are off. I didn't think the original question was "if the US defaults, will China start selling its treasuries?"...
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Put in simple terms for PooperScooter :
1) China can't sell off it's USD without triggering a financial collapse.
2) America can't default without triggering a financial collapse.
Anything outside these known truths is unthinkable.
HTH
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Originally posted by scooterscot View PostWhy is it automatically assumed to be a closed system incapable of change? The point is they might not have a choice if, a big if, the US defaults. They can be first, be smarter, or cheat.
Wind the clocks back, the 11th hour 2007, ordinary joe walks up to Fred of RBS and says "Look, you've got to sell all US mortgage securities, do it, do it now" Fred says "You're mad, those debts have triple A ratings, nothing beats owning US debt"
Then wham. All I'm saying is the probability the US will not default is no longer 0%.
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Originally posted by Freamon View PostWhy would they risk weakening the dollar by unloading their stash?
Wind the clocks back, the 11th hour 2007, ordinary joe walks up to Fred of RBS and says "Look, you've got to sell all US mortgage securities, do it, do it now" Fred says "You're mad, those debts have triple A ratings, nothing beats owning US debt"
Then wham. All I'm saying is the probability the US will not default is no longer 0%.
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China's economy is built on the strength of the dollar. They dont care what their US Treasuries are worth, as long as their exports continue to look cheap. Why would they risk weakening the dollar by unloading their stash?
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Originally posted by aussielong View PostYou would think the Chinese would have hedged their USD exposures though. They arent punting, like Suity does.
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Originally posted by scooterscot View PostIf the US defaults, if, then the Chinese will find themselves sitting on a pile of paper worth about as much. Bugger if I'd be sitting on me hands doing nothing about the situation.
Why of why the US still maintains a AA+ credit rating when it's potentially 10 days away from default is beyond me.
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Originally posted by DimPrawn View PostWhen the news of the shutdowns hit the market, everyone panicked and bought...........US govt debt.
Safe haven.
Yep, the markets are mad. People worried about the collapse of the US buying US debt as it's the ultimate safe haven.
but yes its utterly insane....
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When the news of the shutdowns hit the market, everyone panicked and bought...........US govt debt.
Safe haven.
Yep, the markets are mad. People worried about the collapse of the US buying US debt as it's the ultimate safe haven.
Leave a comment:
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