'China is on the cusp of a deflationary vortex'

[OwlHoot]

If the Chinese could see their way to giving us half a trillion, we could carry on buying things from them, their economy would take off again, and we'd be out of the woods debt wise. So win win all round.

[eek]

3 main things that bother me about China are:
1) very slow access to western sites that are otherwise very fast
2) apparently Chinese can get debit/credit card only if they have a house - so can't pay easily for western goods online
3) Amount of false refund claims and chargebacks makes them rather stand out

You accept chinese customers? I gave up when the hassle / con for freebie rate hit 80%.

[AtW]

3 main things that bother me about China are:
1) very slow access to western sites that are otherwise very fast
2) apparently Chinese can get debit/credit card only if they have a house - so can't pay easily for western goods online
3) Amount of false refund claims and chargebacks makes them rather stand out

[BrilloPad]

Its an interesting article - though like you I am not convinced how likely it is to come true. But the last paragraph is nice :-

Woe betide the world if China does indeed land with a thud. We will then have a synchronised planetary slump for the first time since you know when.

[AtW]

From the same chap who keeps writing mostly about how eurozone will collapse... don't take his words too seriously!

"China is on the cusp of a deflationary vortex.

This was signalled late last year by the sharpest contraction in the (real) M1 money supply since modern records began. The hard data is now confirming the warnings.

Consumer prices have been falling for the last three months, producer prices have been falling for four months. This is not a food cost story. It is systemic.

"While an economy-wide generalized deflation is yet to be seen, the deflationary spiral looks to have started in some industrial sectors, attesting to considerable stress with the economy. Persistent deflation can be poisonous," said Xianfang Ren from IHS Global Insight in Beijing.

Indeed it can be poisonous, and China already has the twin-afflictions of the deflation malaise: a fast aging nation, and a surfeit of factories and industrial plant.

Meanwhile, Japanese machine tool orders fell 14.8pc in May, the biggest drop since 2001 – when Japan’s deflation began in earnest. The post-Fukushima reconstruction boom has run its course. Asia is turning stone cold."

China heads for a deflationary shock – Telegraph Blogs

My comment - this article is a load of tulip.