Reply to: Rain, rain, rain

[Scoobos]

Well, the suns come out where I am ... huzzah!

[Old Hack]

That's convenient as now you won't need to comment on the unchanging rainfall trend over the last 100 years.

Have a nice day.

Not a bit, for everything I have posted, you've not answered. I just think you have an entrenched position, which you'll not change, so it's all rather pointless.

We have had more rain in June, than in any other year. Ever. This is what they call an event. Some places are having one or two months rain in 24 hours. This is also a record, and an event. One place in Cumbria recently had 1 foot of rain in a day. No matter what kind of infrastructure you have in place, that's impossible to handle, realistically.

I am not going to list all of th crazy record breaking weather we've been having, this year alone.

What you are doing, is obfuscating.

Have a nice day yourself.

[BlasterBates]

Blaster, I am not prepared to discuss anything with you anymore, as you have a set position, which you are not going to move from, regardless. This is no longer a discussion, it's simply a continual pad for your unrelenting position.

You keep planning that nothing is changing, and I will do the opposite. Darwinism will see to the rest.

That's convenient as now you won't need to comment on the unchanging rainfall trend over the last 100 years.

Have a nice day.

[Old Hack]

Blaster, I am not prepared to discuss anything with you anymore, as you have a set position, which you are not going to move from, regardless. This is no longer a discussion, it's simply a continual pad for your unrelenting position.

You keep planning that nothing is changing, and I will do the opposite. Darwinism will see to the rest.

[BlasterBates]

Can you see any trend in the rainfall over the last 100 years?

http://www-958.ibm.com/software/data...fall-1910-2011

[Old Hack]

Jet stream has dropped more southerly. This has affected out weather.

Gulf stream is changing, and as this originates in the Gulf of Mexico, affects Florida and Europe.

The effects of this are more rain, and a drop in temperatures.

There is evidence that the gulf stream has weakened, and will further weaken. No one really knows the impact on this, aside from the fact our mild winters are thought to be be caused by the gulf stream, and that areas without the gulf stream on similar latitudes are significantly colder.

I understand you're saying this is cyclic, and that's a fair opinion, but one I think isn't true.

I remember cold winters, and warm summers. I also remember, clearly, that we simply do not have the same weather, than that in the 60's and onwards. I also know we're having more devastasting weather instances. Whilst there is more reporting, there is similar recordings. I can't argue with what is being recorded.

I had a gig at the Met Office and they have an outstanding centre of research into climate change, but also a magnificent library, which also happens to contain a significant amount of historical data. Reading that, you could only assume change is happening.

[Paddy]

In the 1960's if there had been a weather extreme in China, Russia or South America, it would never have been reported, and to get a perspective there were plenty of weather extremes in the 1960's. There was a winter where the North of Germany was cut off by extreme arctic conditions. There was massive flooding in Holland and North Germany. The UK had one of the severest winters ever. In China there was a series of floods and droughts that lead to an absolute disaster for their agriculture.

I mean if you look back in history there are plenty of meterological disasters to look back on. What makes you think the weather used to follow a regular pattern?

Yep, the snow in 1963, and I remember as a kid the road tarmac used to melt nearly every summer, there were massive floods in the Dorset rivers, people thought it was normal but in those days nobody was so stupid to build houses on flood plains.
Don’t forget the weather in July 1945 near D Day, the same as this year.
Don’t forget St Swithun, Swithun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia it has truth about once the weather is unsettled in July, it will be unsettled for the rest of the summer.

[sasguru]

There is a phenomenon called the PDO. Pacific decadal oscillation.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

This causes a 60 year climate cycle which has an effect on the jet stream. This causes decadal shifts in the climate.

eg:
The cause of the dust bowl drought in the 1930's:



This means as you grow up, the weather you considered normal as a kid won't be normal when you're 30 years older, hence you might have grown up with a period of hot summers, and then 20 years later you start notice it's always wet and vice versa.

This might have something to do with people's perception that the "climate is screwed".

There is also a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Oscillation which also causes decadal changes.

Your argument is that the extreme worldwide weather events seen around the world recently are a cyclical phenomenon.
Mine is that they are a step change.*
Time will tell.

*Interestingly (and I agree this is anecdotal) someone who agrees with me (based totally on UK weather) is a 76 year old farm-hand who works on my mate's farm in Suffolk.
He and I had an interesting discussion a few weekends ago about the changing seasons, the time for sowing, harvests, the different crops that can now be grown etc. etc.

[BlasterBates]

There is a phenomenon called the PDO. Pacific decadal oscillation.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

This causes a 60 year climate cycle which has an effect on the jet stream. This causes decadal shifts in the climate.

eg:
The cause of the dust bowl drought in the 1930's:

cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and warmer than normal tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to a weakened low-level jet stream and changed its course. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast moving air near the Earth's surface, normally flows westward over the Gulf of Mexico and then turns northward pulling up moisture and dumping rain onto the Great Plains. As the low level jet stream weakened, it traveled farther south than normal. The Great Plains dried up and dust storms formed. Analysis of other major U.S. droughts of the 1900s suggests a cool tropical Pacific was a common factor.”

This means as you grow up, the weather you considered normal as a kid won't be normal when you're 30 years older, hence you might have grown up with a period of hot summers, and then 20 years later you start notice it's always wet and vice versa.

This might have something to do with people's perception that the "climate is screwed".

There is also a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Oscillation which also causes decadal changes.

[Old Hack]

Nice to see this has stayed amicable though! I've usually sat on the fence when this topic comes up.

To answer you Blaster, my experience has come from seeing things and having local people say how unusual everything is. Everyone's doing it, "this is weird, for this time of year" - "I've never seen jellyfish here before, the waters usually much too cold etc". Whole communities are starving, on the fringes, due to changes in migrationary patterns etc.

So no, it isn't very scientific. But neither is the post above this. To have laymen refute the scientists I don't understand, I don't really see a motive in the early research or the UN science team either.. Sure there are now people arguing FOR climate change that have conflicts of interests, but everything i see that is AGAINST is DEFINATELY coming from people with ulterior motives.

The bottom line for me is that I am no scientist and I'm guessing most of us on here aren't - but I'm willing to trust expert opinion from people with little to gain from it , over the layman who just wants to not have to change their lifestyle; or the marketing engine funded by polluting multi-nationals.

I'm jaded , but for me, I see this whole debate as a "non debate" but a fact, the worlds changing and people, animals and the biosphere are suffering as a result.

I believe there's argument both ways, but I also believe that the big companies have much power through their financial position and media influence to debunk everything and the scientists are struggling for funding.

Even if it is (just for arguments sake) only 10% worse due to human behaviour, then as people are dying it's our humanitarian responsibility to adjust our lifestyles to minimise the damage. It's a cheesy phrase but it is the future of our children at stake.

But my view is we live in a very selfish time, where people have everything and refuse to compromise even one bit (in fact, many get annoyed and go over the top the other way, increasing pollution) - and that is the problem , the total lack of responsibility to even acknowledge that our behaviour is worsening things.

Finally, yes I am a greeny - I refuse to short haul flight (I've flown 3 times, to canada, australia and Indonesia), other than that have only ever travelled overland (and been to nearly every continent now) and recycle, etc etc.. so I am sold to it. But i firmly believe that anyone, no matter how cold - should go to places like Old Crow, the Yukon, Central Australia etc - to see for themselves how human behaviour (corporate usually) is externalised on poor victims, who are too far away for anyone to care.

WSS

I'm pretty much precisely from this camp. However, I am no scientist, so it is mainly from looking at things from a logical, personal and anecdotal perspective. I can see how easily this could be blown out of the water, but everything said thus far points precisely to climate change, imo.

Australia has only just got over a 9 year drought, where most of its top soil got blown away, rendering the land useless. It's also not having as many bush fires as it normally does. Weather is odd there too.

I just think too many things have happened over the last 10 years, especially, for it to be put down as nothing but variation.

But as I said, this is purely from an interersted laymans perspective.

[Scoobos]

Can I sign up to the SAS Guide to posting when it next opens?

Once again my whole wall of text has been posted far more clearly in about 2 lines

[sasguru]

I have little doubt that both global warming (as in a rise in average surface temperatures on the Earth's surface) and climate change are now in train (the two probably being intertwined) and that man is a big, if not only, cause. All the evidence and data say so.

[Scoobos]

Nice to see this has stayed amicable though! I've usually sat on the fence when this topic comes up.

To answer you Blaster, my experience has come from seeing things and having local people say how unusual everything is. Everyone's doing it, "this is weird, for this time of year" - "I've never seen jellyfish here before, the waters usually much too cold etc". Whole communities are starving, on the fringes, due to changes in migrationary patterns etc.

So no, it isn't very scientific. But neither is the post above this. To have laymen refute the scientists I don't understand, I don't really see a motive in the early research or the UN science team either.. Sure there are now people arguing FOR climate change that have conflicts of interests, but everything i see that is AGAINST is DEFINATELY coming from people with ulterior motives.

The bottom line for me is that I am no scientist and I'm guessing most of us on here aren't - but I'm willing to trust expert opinion from people with little to gain from it , over the layman who just wants to not have to change their lifestyle; or the marketing engine funded by polluting multi-nationals.

I'm jaded , but for me, I see this whole debate as a "non debate" but a fact, the worlds changing and people, animals and the biosphere are suffering as a result.

I believe there's argument both ways, but I also believe that the big companies have much power through their financial position and media influence to debunk everything and the scientists are struggling for funding.

Even if it is (just for arguments sake) only 10% worse due to human behaviour, then as people are dying it's our humanitarian responsibility to adjust our lifestyles to minimise the damage. It's a cheesy phrase but it is the future of our children at stake.

But my view is we live in a very selfish time, where people have everything and refuse to compromise even one bit (in fact, many get annoyed and go over the top the other way, increasing pollution) - and that is the problem , the total lack of responsibility to even acknowledge that our behaviour is worsening things.

Finally, yes I am a greeny - I refuse to short haul flight (I've flown 3 times, to canada, australia and Indonesia), other than that have only ever travelled overland (and been to nearly every continent now) and recycle, etc etc.. so I am sold to it. But i firmly believe that anyone, no matter how cold - should go to places like Old Crow, the Yukon, Central Australia etc - to see for themselves how human behaviour (corporate usually) is externalised on poor victims, who are too far away for anyone to care.

[Doggy Styles]

I said before that the climate is always changing. What you are doing is taking a very brief moment of history and extrapolating something semi-permanent and dramatic from it.

What I am saying is that you could have done that over any period in history, were the data available, and come to every variety of conclusion. It's cooling, it's warming, and all points in between.

[Old Hack]

I am guessing that checking climate change through the medium of the rings in trees is not an exact science, and the previous time they did this, they had it as cooler...

Hmmm.