Reply to: Best and most thorugh analysis of the Eurozone crisis by the wise Nouriel Roubini

[Doggy Styles]

The alternative is for them to go bust. Then they will see real austerity. Iceland at least has some sort of industry to fall back on. The only thing the greeks are good at is tax dodging.

No, they've got tourism. But when the euro was strong they've had to drop their prices so I don't know how much profit they are earning compared to before.

[BrilloPad]

What's stopping them are the hordes of angry Greek voters. Regardless of whether or not it's good for them, the Greek public won't accept harsh austerity - look at the protests over the relatively minor reforms proposed so far. They've had the easy life for so long it's ingrained in their culture, and the shift back to reality won't come easily.

The alternative is for them to go bust. Then they will see real austerity. Iceland at least has some sort of industry to fall back on. The only thing the greeks are good at is tax dodging.

[GreenLabel]

But it can be done, absolutely nothing stopping these countries doing what Ireland has done. Why can't they?

What's to stop Greece privatising billions of Euros worth of assets? Why not? Why is this immovable? What is the sense in raising even more debt when there is some money available? and why is it unreasonable to raise the retirement age to 67?

What's stopping them are the hordes of angry Greek voters. Regardless of whether or not it's good for them, the Greek public won't accept harsh austerity - look at the protests over the relatively minor reforms proposed so far. They've had the easy life for so long it's ingrained in their culture, and the shift back to reality won't come easily.

[Mich the Tester]

Argentina has a wealth of natural resources.

Indeed, and I would happily exploit some of them.

[DodgyAgent]

But it can be done, absolutely nothing stopping these countries doing what Ireland has done. Why can't they?

Ireland austerity and growth

What's to stop Greece privatising billions of Euros worth of assets? Why not? Why is this immovable? What is the sense in raising even more debt when there is some money available? and why is it unreasonable to raise the retirement age to 67? The Germans did it.

By forcing these countries face up to some reality will force them to change.

I don't accept the fact that letting people retire early is somehow beneficial for growth.

Not bad

[DodgyAgent]

In Argentina perhaps but I would disagree that other Latin countries are implementing austerity. This remember is country that defaulted on its debts in the late 90s and should serve as reminder why we must not let Euro collapse at any costs.

Argentina's economy grew rapidly after they went bust. presumably because they got rid of all the spongers.

[sasguru]

In Argentina perhaps but I would disagree that other Latin countries are implementing austerity. This remember is country that defaulted on its debts in the late 90s and should serve as reminder why we must not let Euro collapse at any costs.

I mean the Euro latin bloc aka the garlic belt aka the PIIGS.

[BrilloPad]

In Argentina perhaps but I would disagree that other Latin countries are implementing austerity. This remember is country that defaulted on its debts in the late 90s and should serve as reminder why we must not let Euro collapse at any costs.

Argentina has a wealth of natural resources. Maybe if they concentrated less on the Falklands and more on hard work they would be alot better off.

[Hill Station Murthy]

All countries are different. Which is why the Euro was a crap idea.
Austerity has led to depression conditions in the Latin economies, fact.

In Argentina perhaps but I would disagree that other Latin countries are implementing austerity. This remember is country that defaulted on its debts in the late 90s and should serve as reminder why we must not let Euro collapse at any costs.

[sasguru]

But it can be done, absolutely nothing stopping these countries doing what Ireland has done. Why can't they?

Ireland austerity and growth

What's to stop Greece privatising billions of Euros worth of assets? Why not? Why is this immovable? What is the sense in raising even more debt when there is some money available? and why is it unreasonable to raise the retirement age to 67? The Germans did it.

By forcing these countries face up to some reality will force them to change.

I don't accept the fact that letting people retire early is somehow beneficial for growth.

You really need to be more analytical in your approach.
The question to ask is why is Ireland growing more.
And the answer is they have (1) a larger section of their economy devoted to exports and (2) their corp tax rates are half that of Euro area.
(1) is temporary as all export markets will slow down as is happening already even to germany and (2) is temporary because France and Germany want to harmonise tax rates within the EC.
Also you can't create an export economy overnight in say Greece.

Ireland's short-lived growth rate will soon stall and then their current 14.5 % unemployment rate will rise further.

[BlasterBates]

All countries are different. Which is why the Euro was a crap idea.
Austerity has led to depression conditions in the Latin economies, fact.

But it can be done, absolutely nothing stopping these countries doing what Ireland has done. Why can't they?

Ireland austerity and growth

What's to stop Greece privatising billions of Euros worth of assets? Why not? Why is this immovable? What is the sense in raising even more debt when there is some money available? and why is it unreasonable to raise the retirement age to 67? The Germans did it.

By forcing these countries face up to some reality will force them to change.

I don't accept the fact that letting people retire early is somehow beneficial for growth.

[sasguru]

The fastest growing country in Europe is Ireland at the moment, seems to fly in the face of his analysis that countries can't do austerity and grow.

Just a biased Euro-Sceptic view claiming austerity invariably leads to depression...well it doesn't, that's just claptrap.

All countries are different. Which is why the Euro was a crap idea.
Austerity has led to depression conditions in the Latin economies, fact.

[Mich the Tester]

Can I have the sub-moron Summary - Sun style.

Today's page 3, Stacie, 21 from Southend says......

I hate them krauts cos they bommed my grate grandadd's chipshop and that's why i nevvah met him and thats why i had 4 kids b4 i woz 14 and i am telling yous i dont take no tulip of noone innit.

[russell]

1. Growth and Competiveness Are Restored. In this first option, policies are undertaken to rapidly restore growth and competitiveness (monetary easing, a weaker euro, core fiscal easing and the reduction of unsustainable public and private debts in clear insolvency cases), to reduce flow deficits and to restore private, public and external debt sustainability, all while the periphery undertakes continued painful austerity and structural reforms.

2. The Deflationary/Depressionary Route to the Restoration of Competitiveness.

3. The Core Permanently Subsidizes the Periphery.

4. The EZ Experiences Widespread Debt Restructurings.

An Assessment of the Likelihood of the Four Options

Option 1: Most Desirable But Quite Unlikely as Contrary to the Goals and Constraints of Germany/the ECB

Option 2 is the type of adjustment that the ECB and Germany would like to impose on the periphery, but it would be socially and politically unacceptable for most.

Option 3: Not Acceptable to the EZ Core as it Implies Permanent Subsidies to a Large Part of the Periphery, I.e. a Transfer Union Rather Than a Fiscal Union

Option 4: Widespread Debt Reductions and Eventual EZ Break-Up—Becomes the More Likely Outcome as the Other Three Options Are Not Likely or They Are Not Desirable or Sustainable

No Andyw option? Guy is obviously clueless!

Seriously though, this is a decent analysis of the situation and anyone who is fuzzy on the detail should read this.

[BlasterBates]

It's long but reasonably lucid for all but the biggest morons like PooperScooper

EconoMonitor : Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor » Eurozone Crisis: Here Are the Options, Now Choose

The fastest growing country in Europe is Ireland at the moment, seems to fly in the face of his analysis that countries can't do austerity and grow.

Whether these countries stay or leave the Euro, there's no alternative to austerity, if anything austerity will be far worse if they leave the Euro becuase no-one is going to give them anything except for a few crumbs from the IMF.