Project armageddon – the final report

[OwlHoot]

Another one you might enjoy is howitends.co.uk ...

Crikey - That's an eye opener, even for cynic like me.

Few of the items that are used in the construction of a dwelling can be imported from low cost economies. Small items can be imported but all the bulk materials have to be manufactured reasonably locally. The cost of a house therefore reflects real costs within the economy. Over the last 10 years the price of building a home has increased by about 10% per annum. Cheaper materials and lower standards were employed towards the end of this period which would confirm that the real inflation rate in the UK must have been at least 10% per annum since 2000. The level of local government expenditure has risen by 10% per annum on average over the last decade. The cost of private school fees has risen by 10% per annum. There are many other examples that all show an inflation level of 10% per annum since 2000.

[OwlHoot]

I would suggest starting with the 2nd issue in the series, where he argues that "European" capitalism is less prone to systemic failures and likely to become the next orthodoxy.

What?! So my new hero has feet of clay after all? My world is falling apart!

[doodab]

WHS, and it's so much more than a lot dry facts and figures (although naturally these are prominent)

It's not all economic either - He emphasises the predictably malign effects of Brown & co's "fairness" agenda. Also, he points out in passing that socialists and many statists don't _want_ a sound and prosperous economy. Like catholic priests of old in the third world (maybe not so much these days), they thrive best on poverty, dependence, and ignorance.

And he reckons property prices also have a long way to fall - Maybe Alexei should have waited another year or two before jumping in.

I would suggest starting with the 2nd issue in the series, where he argues that "European" capitalism is less prone to systemic failures and likely to become the next orthodoxy.

[OwlHoot]

Quite a good (if long) read. Enjoy (and report back). ...

WHS, and it's so much more than a lot dry facts and figures (although naturally these are prominent)

It's not all economic either - He emphasises the predictably malign effects of Brown & co's "fairness" agenda. Also, he points out in passing that socialists and many statists don't _want_ a sound and prosperous economy. Like catholic priests of old in the third world (maybe not so much these days), they thrive best on poverty, dependence, and ignorance.

And he reckons property prices also have a long way to fall - Maybe Alexei should have waited another year or two before jumping in.

[escapeUK]

Thanks to escapeUK for the heads up.

Glad you enjoyed it, as I was reading it I was hoping to get to the bit that actually offered some advise on how to protect ones wealth. But other than dont buy property, theres nothing like that in there.

He hit the nail on the head with this bit:-

Perhaps the most intractable part of Britain’s economic problem is the mind-set engendered by Labour. This mind-set, which is a compound of entitlement (both personal and national), financial irresponsibility and spurious moral absolutism, makes it difficult for the public to perceive the nature of the national problem, let alone resolve it.

Another one you might enjoy is howitends.co.uk

This is perhaps more suitable for people who like bite sized chunks of information, rather than the Tullet Prebon document. But it perhaps isnt as up to date.

The mechanisms are in place to ensure that the Western democratic governments have no alternative but to destroy their societies. The State might consist of people but as a system they operate as an organic entity in their own right. They have to feed to survive and will continue to consume until nothing is left. It would be pointless to even try to slow their rate of consumption if only because their electorates will never permit it.

Most individuals are self centred and cannot see very far into the future. Full cognitive development is found in less than 30% of the population by the age of 40 and even a large proportion of these people will reason that they might as well enjoy themselves if the system is going to fail anyway. Politicians will always seek to persuade the bulk of the population that all will be well and to create the illusion that everything will work out all right in the end.

The bulk of the population always chooses to believe that if there is a problem that it is the job of the Government to solve it. Most people will cling to this belief until the very end even though it clearly is not true. Instead of focusing the population on the imminent problems of living without energy and wealth the Government is still focusing time and effort on the global environment, civil rights, social equality and solving the problems of other countries.

[doodab]

Some of the earlier reports in their series are quite interesting.

[Gonzo]

Glad to see them pointing the finger at Gordon's rewrite of financial regulation.

The responsibility for putting Britain into a high-debt, low-growth trap lies firmly with the 1997-2010 Labour administration. ‘Team Brown’ bungled the reform of the financial regulatory system, mistook the ensuing property-driven bubble for real growth, irresponsibly ramped up public spending to unaffordable levels, and throughout remained blithely ignorant of its mistakes.

[TimberWolf]

escapeUK posted this great looking report: http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documen...Report_007.pdf

What do the resident economic geniuses think of it? A lot of it seems accurate and believable to me.

Executive summary:

• Brown (and co.) was the biggest dunce in modern history ["grotesque incompetence" - yup, that sounds like Brown]
• Brown gets lambasted quite a bit throughout, though Teflon doesn't escape Scot free
• The current government are fibbing about a lot of things too
• We are in debt up to our eyeballs
• The debt reduction plan is to fall apart at the seams
• Things are going to get worse
• House prices are going to fall
• Things might get very bad indeedy
• Lots of doom pictures too (dilapidated building interiors mostly)

...the UK economy and public finances have been managed with staggering incompetence – for sheer mismanagement, profligacy, and hubris, we know of no modern parallel for the trashing of the British economy in the decade prior to the financial crisis.

Quite a good (if long) read. Enjoy (and report back).

Thanks to escapeUK for the heads up.