Reply to: The future of tablets

[Sysman]

Microsoft's bread and butter is in the enterprise, most of their revenue comes from the enterprise client and productivity suites.

Granny is an afterthought.

And it shows. Why don't they stop pestering her then?

Or more sensibly, stop wasting money by investing in this segment of the market. Put it somewhere else instead.

[doodab]

Interesting points. They just see the numbers being sold as an indicator of future markets. Target market - audio / sampling world which encompasses sequencing and notation packages. I really can't see Sonar, Cubase, Sibelius etc on a 10" device with a host of VST plugins but not getting the message across.

I just invoice anyway I suppose but a ClientCo going in the wrong direction means possible bench time in the future.

Yes, that market tends to be into huge (& multiple) LCD screens.

I can see tablets being pressed into service as remote control devices, but that's a fairly mature and competitive market, and there are already things like the jazzmutant lemur and plenty of other dedicated gadgets that are more ergonomically suited to the job.

I think there is scope for something like a tablet version of ableton to catch on with bedroom DJs, or for a low cost Akai MPC / portastudio / garage band alternative, the main problem I can see with that is AFAIK none of the current crop of tablets support connection of expansion devices and you are never going to get low latency multichannel audio in and out (or connect decent microphones) without some sort of expansion box, which would be quite limiting for most potential applications, and again it's a mature market, you can already get a hell of a lot in a box for £3-400 so the cost of the software would have to be a fairly small increment on top of the cost of a tablet to make sense.

[Incognito]

The more I think about it the more I think Microsoft have got left behind here. It's not just granny, but me as well who wants to just switch a gadget on and use it.

Microsoft's bread and butter is in the enterprise, most of their revenue comes from the enterprise client and productivity suites.

Granny is an afterthought.

[Sysman]

I hope not netbooks, in my experience, are a pile of old crap.

The two we have in the family are simple not up to the task of running windows for more than a year. Scratch and re-install you say? Not really an option for a granny with the technical nouse of a woodlouse, all she knows is that the computer is running slow, or has run out of memory and is therefore crap.

The more I think about it the more I think Microsoft have got left behind here. It's not just granny, but me as well who wants to just switch a gadget on and use it.

Think of it like a TV. I want to switch the thing on and enjoy it with the minimum of fuss.

The thing about android and ios is that they tend to just work, and don't need a lot of looking after. That's very compelling for your average joe.

It's also very compelling for someone technically literate. I simply don't want something that demands a reboot when I plug a new device in.

[NickFitz]

From a financial analysis of Apple

The iPad sold 4.69m tablets, fewer than the 6.1m predicted by analysts or the 7.3m of the holiday quarter.

That quote is pretty much irrelevant: those "analysts" pulled their 6.1m prediction out of thin air, as Apple is so secretive about what it's up to. In fact, estimates of quarterly iPad sales before Apple reported their quarterly results ranged from 5.1m to 9.8m, although just before the figures were announced some speculated that iPad sales for the quarter might be as low as 4.2m, given that Apple was reporting that it had sold 19m iPads by March. (Source: Fortune.) This demonstrates just how irrelevant the guesses of these "analysts" are. Furthermore, people knew during this quarter that the iPad 2 was on the way, which almost certainly slowed sales of the iPad 1.

One simple fact about the iPad 2 is that Apple are still quoting a lead time of a couple of weeks, and restricting purchasers to two units. This is not the mark of a product that is having limited success in the marketplace.

Yet my local department store has a ton of iPad 1 models at a hefty discount. If the tablet idea were so desirable, surely the lower budget folks would be snapping those up.

Even the "lower budget folks" are extremely averse to buying a remaindered technology product. (The department store should probably have thought of that before buying up Apple's left-over stock.) Ordinary people don't know a lot about technology, but one thing they have firmly in mind is that there's no point buying last year's model. Source: several conversations with non-tech-savvy people who've picked my brains over the last few weeks, all of whom have said straight off that they aren't going to buy an iPad 1 just because it's a bargain. Their main concern is how long it will be before the iPad 3 comes out and if it might, therefore, be worth carrying on with the Windows laptop they never liked using and don't really need the capabilities of for a few months longer.

To return to the original question, now that it has been clarified that it relates to one rather niche industry with highly specialised requirements: I reckon tablets will be widely used in that market, but as one tool amongst many. In other words, don't bet the farm on them, but be aware that they will form an important part of the landscape.

As for Windows becoming the predominant tablet platform, in that niche or any other:

[Moscow Mule]

a net book and a smart phone is all they need

A small laptop is more use than an iPad as it can run standard applications and has a keyboard, it just lacks the trendy wow factor

I wonder if the nosedive in sales of netbooks will last once iPads stop being the next big thing ?

I hope not netbooks, in my experience, are a pile of old crap.

The two we have in the family are simple not up to the task of running windows for more than a year. Scratch and re-install you say? Not really an option for a granny with the technical nouse of a woodlouse, all she knows is that the computer is running slow, or has run out of memory and is therefore crap.

The thing about android and ios is that they tend to just work, and don't need a lot of looking after. That's very compelling for your average joe.

[OwlHoot]

And the iPad, though dominant in the nascent tablet category, is not yet proving that the category itself is a winner, or will be more than a niche form factor in the wave of new, cloud-focused products that will appear over the next few years.

The iPad sold 4.69m tablets, fewer than the 6.1m predicted by analysts or the 7.3m of the holiday quarter. It remains to be seen whether this is a short-term supply issue or an indicator of limited demand for the form factor. CFO Peter Oppenheimer said Apple sold "every iPad 2 we could make", suggesting Apple is experiencing parts shortages, though Apple officially said the earthquake was not having a "material impact" and that it was ramping up iPad 2 production. "The iPad has the mother of all backlogs," said acting CEO Tim Cook.

Maybe they're holding back, to some extent, to give the iPad a more exclusive "hard to acquire" cachet.

After all, nothing must turn on Apple groupies and gadget freeks like some new i-toy that's in short supply.

[amcdonald]

I think that's missing the point. Even if your tablet could run Word as well as your PC, it still doesn't have a decent keyboard; doesn't have a decent sized screen, and still isn't something you're going to use whilst sat at a desk. Nobody is going to be writing 150 pages of marketing spiel on an iPad, no matter how powerful it becomes.

I think the uptake of tablets will be much like phones. Smartphones can do a lots of the same things as your PC or laptop, but nobody in their right mind gives up the PC or laptop and does everything with their phone. And nobody will use a tablet as an alternative to a PC, they'll just have both.

I can understand photographers and webdesigners etc having iPads it makes sense as any easy way to demonstrate stuff to clients, but for everyone else why have a PC/Mac, an iPad and a smart phone for most people a net book and a smart phone is all they need

A small laptop is more use than an iPad as it can run standard applications and has a keyboard, it just lacks the trendy wow factor

I wonder if the nosedive in sales of netbooks will last once iPads stop being the next big thing ?

[TykeMerc]

I think that's missing the point. Even if your tablet could run Word as well as your PC, it still doesn't have a decent keyboard; doesn't have a decent sized screen, and still isn't something you're going to use whilst sat at a desk. Nobody is going to be writing 150 pages of marketing spiel on an iPad, no matter how powerful it becomes.

I think the uptake of tablets will be much like phones. Smartphones can do a lots of the same things as your PC or laptop, but nobody in their right mind gives up the PC or laptop and does everything with their phone. And nobody will use a tablet as an alternative to a PC, they'll just have both.

I disagree with you on that as it's easy to overcome the limitation with some type of desk dock device with a decent keyboard, mouse and monitor. While it's a factor on the mainstream uses and will undoubtedly be expensive to buy a desk dock it's not a show stopper compared to the sheer lack of functionality offered by the tablet machines.

On the mobile phone front that's already incoming Motorola ATRIX.

[VectraMan]

I'm still convinced that the technology has a fair way to go before it's fit for mainstream uses. If nothing else it has to be capable of running standard office applications concurrently and natively interface to standard peripherals, both of which appear to be something of a challenge, but are offered by even dirt cheap netbooks (if you want a small device) or laptops.

I think that's missing the point. Even if your tablet could run Word as well as your PC, it still doesn't have a decent keyboard; doesn't have a decent sized screen, and still isn't something you're going to use whilst sat at a desk. Nobody is going to be writing 150 pages of marketing spiel on an iPad, no matter how powerful it becomes.

I think the uptake of tablets will be much like phones. Smartphones can do a lots of the same things as your PC or laptop, but nobody in their right mind gives up the PC or laptop and does everything with their phone. And nobody will use a tablet as an alternative to a PC, they'll just have both.

[minestrone]

I'm sorry but that is an attempt to categories expectation of technology usage and expectation of use into a plastic elastic diagram of a metal. It has no value whatsoever.

[TykeMerc]

Yet my local department store has a ton of iPad 1 models at a hefty discount. If the tablet idea were so desirable, surely the lower budget folks would be snapping those up.

To me that's the clearest indication that iPads and tablets in general are still firmly in the gimmick, gadget, new toy department rather than being viable computing devices outside of niche uses. I recall an article about a local council that bought a bunch of iPads for senior staff and councillors and then had to spend even more on real laptops as the iPad couldn't cut it for their fairly basic requirements.

I'm still convinced that the technology has a fair way to go before it's fit for mainstream uses. If nothing else it has to be capable of running standard office applications concurrently and natively interface to standard peripherals, both of which appear to be something of a challenge, but are offered by even dirt cheap netbooks (if you want a small device) or laptops.

[Sysman]

Interesting points. They just see the numbers being sold as an indicator of future markets. Target market - audio / sampling world which encompasses sequencing and notation packages. I really can't see Sonar, Cubase, Sibelius etc on a 10" device with a host of VST plugins but not getting the message across.

From a financial analysis of Apple

And the iPad, though dominant in the nascent tablet category, is not yet proving that the category itself is a winner, or will be more than a niche form factor in the wave of new, cloud-focused products that will appear over the next few years.

The iPad sold 4.69m tablets, fewer than the 6.1m predicted by analysts or the 7.3m of the holiday quarter. It remains to be seen whether this is a short-term supply issue or an indicator of limited demand for the form factor. CFO Peter Oppenheimer said Apple sold "every iPad 2 we could make", suggesting Apple is experiencing parts shortages, though Apple officially said the earthquake was not having a "material impact" and that it was ramping up iPad 2 production. "The iPad has the mother of all backlogs," said acting CEO Tim Cook.

Yet my local department store has a ton of iPad 1 models at a hefty discount. If the tablet idea were so desirable, surely the lower budget folks would be snapping those up.

I just invoice anyway I suppose but a ClientCo going in the wrong direction means possible bench time in the future.

Always tricky.

[Cliphead]

Heh.

Gut feel is - they're missing the point. Their users are power users (typically) and would prefer their studio setups. If they need to see evidence of that - then that's what initial user research is for. However - the same process could unearth some hitherto unknown portable reqs that might make for a tasty niche tablet project. But frankly, if you ever did want me to commission that research you'd have to schedule the upside-down-fly-under-a-power-line-fireball-of-doom stunt for afterwards, and I'm quite keen to try that as soon as possible.

I agree that their missing the point, need to give this a lot more thought and build my arguments before getting back to them.

PM's links to some vids from last week

[realityhack]

You never know

Heh.

Gut feel is - they're missing the point. Their users are power users (typically) and would prefer their studio setups. If they need to see evidence of that - then that's what initial user research is for. However - the same process could unearth some hitherto unknown portable reqs that might make for a tasty niche tablet project. But frankly, if you ever did want me to commission that research you'd have to schedule the upside-down-fly-under-a-power-line-fireball-of-doom stunt for afterwards, and I'm quite keen to try that as soon as possible.