Reply to: It´s the sun stupid

[Doggy Styles]

Thomas Globig? Is that a made-up name?

[BlasterBates]

This is the reality:

“The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,” said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info . And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,” the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.



It is already clear: the average temperatures in Germany this year (8.1 degrees Celsius) were 0.2 degrees below the long term measured average of 8.3 degrees. “I fear we will end up still significantly lower by the end of the year”, said Globig. The long-term average is actually the average of all German stations from 1961 to 1990.

How Germany’s weather team views the “hottest year ever” | Watts Up With That?


...and what is the Central England temperature record doing:




....oh look it has cooled steadily by 0.5 degrees since 2005.


Get with it...

The Met office and David Viner live in their own fantasy land.

[Spacecadet]

So should I invest my money in

a). Carbon credits
b). Snow plough manufacturers
c). A vineyard and an olive grove in Kent

Green Energy companies, after all those carbon tax pounds will be going straight to them in the form of guaranteed energy purchase prices

[DimPrawn]

1. As GHGs continue to accumulate, the global mean temperature will show a rising long term trend, however as this increase is due to the atmosphere retaining more heat (simplistically stated) the stratosphere will cool just as the troposphere warms. If the waming was due to some other external factor, e.g. increased solar radiation, the stratosphere would not cool.

There Ya go...

So should I invest my money in

a). Carbon credits
b). Snow plough manufacturers
c). A vineyard and an olive grove in Kent

[Spacecadet]

1. As GHGs continue to accumulate, the global mean temperature will show a rising long term trend, however as this increase is due to the atmosphere retaining more heat (simplistically stated) the stratosphere will cool just as the troposphere warms. If the waming was due to some other external factor, e.g. increased solar radiation, the stratosphere would not cool.

There Ya go...

Total solar radiation is pretty much constant.

However, the Sun gives off a lot more than just heat and the understanding of the interaction between the heliosphere and our own atmosphere still seems to be way to low to rule out the sun as the main cause of medium term global changes in climate.

[DimPrawn]

perhaps its time to move on to some science....

Yeah, when the AGW alarmists actually get round to doing some with some solid testable conclusions, please let us know.

[DimPrawn]

Maybe Dr Viner just needs much bigger government funding to hone down his science skills?

[BlasterBates]

This comment is representative of the Met office view last year, and all the climate scientists advising them:

"The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850."

Met Office: Coldest winter for a decade

It really is complete crap to suggest what Dr David Viner said was that we´d have tough winters.


...and from the Independent in 2000

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

Not any more, it seems.

Pretty clear what Dr Viner meant.

[DimPrawn]

That big yellow thing a few light minutes away which is like a billion hydrogen bombs exploding every second has no impact on the Earth's climate, never has and never will.

Sun's Variations Have Little Effect on Global Warming | LiveScience

However, the exhaust gas from your neighbours Aygo is another matter.

[TimberWolf]

A lot of the theories and predictions have fallen by the wayside. What is more worrying now is not the debate itself, but the nature of the debate.
When supporters of AgW say that there mistakes matter less than our because there is no equivilance, we are on the way to fascism. If our views weigh less because we are deniers, why should we even have the vote ? we are destroying the planet through our intransigence and depriving our kids of their rightful inheritance, maybe we should just be put down ?

I asked a cagw supporter on this forum if he would ever consider using violence to achieve his ends. he didnt reply. yet if you put an extra quotation mark around one of Viners gaffs, you get a tome with 300 links

This issue is a pet peeve of Brian Cox. He quite rightly IMO says that 'perceived balance' portrayed by broadcasters should place more emphasis on the products of the peer reviewed scientific community rather than in the views of someone wandering by on the street. He doesn't believe they should receive an equal footing in the name of broadcasting balance. "Report the peer reviewed consensus and avoid the maverick", says peer reviewer Cox, and he gives some examples in various fields, which include philosophy, the MMR vaccine, astrologers and of course climate change which may cause the deaths of our children, he also invokes the Carl Sagan God, and Feynman and Huxley in this compelling video.
YouTube - Brian Cox Lecture - Science: A Challenge to TV Orthodoxy (2/3)

Ah, time for some Cosmos:

and some more Vangelis YouTube - Vangelis -conquest of the paradise - the universe


Cox on what is science: "To put it bluntly vast amounts of drivel have been written about the subject by armies of post modernist philosophers and journalists ...I concur with Feynman who says the philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds"

[DimPrawn]

Is there a climate change model (or forecast/prediction if you like) for the next decade? Or are predictions too wildly fuzzy in the short term to be of any use, just a bit fuzzy in the middle term, getting less fussy over a 50 year period, and then getting fuzzy again after 50 years?

For instance are the poles and equatorial areas expected to warm, and the middle latitudes to cool? Are we going to get colder winters in the UK or not?

The latest scientific view is that if AGW goes on unabated, some places will get hot summers sometimes and other times they will get cold summers, that is when the summers aren't just average and other places will get very cold winters and other times very mild winters, that is when the winters aren't just average and other places will get a mixture of the aforementioned. This will be the climate trend if we keep adding a few ppm of a mild greenhouse gas.

Then some bright spark in the audience asked "So what will we get if we stop AGW?".

[TimberWolf]

Is there a climate change model (or forecast/prediction if you like) for the next decade? Or are predictions too wildly fuzzy in the short term to be of any use, just a bit fuzzy in the middle term, getting less fussy over a 50 year period, and then getting fuzzy again after 50 years?

For instance are the poles and equatorial areas expected to warm, and the middle latitudes to cool? Are we going to get colder winters in the UK or not?

[Doggy Styles]

No, they've said that the sun doesn't contain CO2 and is therefore not a factor in generating the necessary grants for sending their kids to private schools.

[TimberWolf]

That's the jet stream, not the gulf stream, which I don't think is the same thing.

Will global warming trigger a new ice age? | Environment | The Guardian

No, not the same thing, I didn't notice the word/emphasis change from jet to gulf. I was wondering why DP suddenly started talking about the gulf stream.

[EternalOptimist]

What ever happened to the story of global warming causing the gulf stream to divert further south and bringing much colder weather to Britain and Northern Europe? This was one of the early doom stories IIRC, and one that was discredited along the way.

A lot of the theories and predictions have fallen by the wayside. What is more worrying now is not the debate itself, but the nature of the debate.
When supporters of AgW say that there mistakes matter less than our because there is no equivilance, we are on the way to fascism. If our views weigh less because we are deniers, why should we even have the vote ? we are destroying the planet through our intransigence and depriving our kids of their rightful inheritance, maybe we should just be put down ?

I asked a cagw supporter on this forum if he would ever consider using violence to achieve his ends. he didnt reply. yet if you put an extra quotation mark around one of Viners gaffs, you get a tome with 300 links