Originally posted by aussielong
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For example, if you have $10k to convert overall and the exchange rate today is $2, and by the time you need to spend it all, it falls to $1.50.
By converting it all now, you get £5000.
By converting it all the future point of spending, you get £6666.
But there is of course a risk that the exchange rate could move against you in this period. If it moves the other way, to $3, you would only get £3333.
You are, in effect, exposed to a potential £3,333 loss (the difference between the best and worst outcomes).
Assume the rate today is $2 and you guess there's a roughly equal risk of it moving up to $3 or down to $1.50. You don't know which way it is going to move, but you want to balance the risks of losing or winning over the period. You want to get the average exchange rate between now and the point of spending.
So the way to do this is to convert half now, locking in £2,500. Then convert the rest at the end, getting an additional £3,333 or £1,666, for a total of either £5,833 or £4,166. You've halved your exposure from £3,333 down to £1,666.
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