Reply to: Recession over (probably)

[suityou01]

Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

Take a peek at linky

"The Q4 GDP figures are a major blow to hopes that the UK economy had emerged decisively from recession in Q4," said analyst Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics.

"No doubt some commentators will claim that the figures are under-estimating the true strength of the recovery and will be revised up in time.

"That is certainly possible. But it won't change the big picture of an economy still operating way below both its pre-recession and trend levels of output."

Get ready for the cabaret, lights, glamour of the election.

[MrMark]

Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

Gordon the bottler? Err, no thanks. He's going to drag it out as long as he can. A leopard cannot change its spots.

[Ruprect]

The mash has explained it fairly succinctly:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/b...-201001262413/

[Doggy Styles]

That's the beauty - definition of recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP, so technically (unless this number is revised - I think it may go upwards a bit) Britain won't be officially again in recession until after June at the earliest.

Fair point AtW. Technically I should have said back to negative growth (now you come to mention it, is it only two quarters?)

If July does indicate we are back in recession, the first quarter will be posthumously included in the period of recession. It's just that we won't know until July, after the election.

[AtW]

we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

That's the beauty - definition of recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP, so technically (unless this number is revised - I think it may go upwards a bit) Britain won't be officially again in recession until after June at the earliest.

[Doggy Styles]

Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

[TimberWolf]

The currency markets don't seem particularly enamoured with Sterling subsequent to the ONS release.

[Doggy Styles]

Have you seen the weather on 31st? I have not seen many cars on the road apart from mine

I'm referring to the whole quarter up to and including the 31st.

[AtW]

Could this have had something to do with everyone spending before 31-Dec when VAT went back up and the car discounts dried up?

Have you seen the weather on 31st? I have not seen many cars on the road apart from mine

[Doggy Styles]

Could this have had something to do with everyone spending before 31-Dec when VAT went back up and the car discounts dried up?

[AtW]

"Britain expected to exit worst recession in decades"
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"Britain expected to exit worst recession, in decades"

[sunnysan]

Suitable quote about this...

"Facts are stubborn things but statistics are more pliable"

Laurence Peter, author of the Peter Principle

[ChimpMaster]

"Britain expected to exit worst recession in decades"
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"Britain expected to exit worst recession, in decades"

[gingerjedi]

7000 fall in unemployment, economy grows 0.1% ...both figures are only just on the positive side, I call shenanigans!!

[HairyArsedBloke]

How likely is it that that figure will be revised later?

100% - they alway are because the figures released are based on incomplete data. If you asking if it will be revised lower, I think so. However, previous figures were revised up from -0.3% to -0.2%.