Reply to: Just made another £304 on oil futures.

[Bunk]

Doesnt work like that. You have no oppotunity to increase your chances of winning by increasing your stake.

There are six opportunities for success, each independent of the others, each with a different probability of success.

At the start of the drilling process you have a 27% chance of success assuming they start with the most likely prospect.

If this fails you now have a 23% chance of success, then 23% again, then 11%, 11% again, then 8%.

At no point are your chances of success better than 27%.

It's counter intuative, but there is no cumulative effect. Each event has it's own probability for success, unaffected by anything else that happens.
By your analogy, by the time you get to the 8% chance it should be almost certain to happen, it isn't.

If you tot up all the chances of success against all the chances of failure as percentages you get :

Total pool of possible outcomes = 600
( 6x100% chance that a result, good or bad, will occur).

Total pool of good outcomes = 27+23+23+11+11+6 = 106

Chance of any one event from the pool of possible events being good = (106/600)*100 = 17.6%

Surely it's more like:

Chance of them all failing = 0.73 * 0.77 * 0.77 * 0.89 * 0.89 * 0.94 = 0.32
Chance of at least one succeeding = 1 - 0.32 = 0.68 = 68%

It's been a while since I studied probability but that's how I remember it

[Andy2]

I'm not playing at the moment. Too busy and the price of oil is well outside the range it has been trading in. No point trying to guess where it is going to go. Waiting for it to settle into a pattern.

When I've got some time will see if there are any other things that are currently bouncing in a range.

Try the mining bluechips. I dabble in XTA which is most volatile. it swings 5% wither way. Good fun.
Other big miners are BLT,RIO, KAZ,VED etc
Not bad for holding long term also.
Safe haven against depreciating USD and GBP.

DYOR

[AtW]

I'm not playing at the moment. Too busy and the price of oil is well outside the range it has been trading in. No point trying to guess where it is going to go.

gambling

trying to find excuses to my gf on why she and her babies won't be getting Xmas presents this year cuz the daddy gambled all the monies away

[DimPrawn]

Any updates today on your spekulative actitivies?

We need to know!

I'm not playing at the moment. Too busy and the price of oil is well outside the range it has been trading in. No point trying to guess where it is going to go. Waiting for it to settle into a pattern.

When I've got some time will see if there are any other things that are currently bouncing in a range.

[AtW]

CLF0 < 70 bucks.

No more oil contango then?

[DaveB]

is that good or bad ? i dont understand

CLF0 = Crude Oil for delivery Jan 2010
Price now below $70 barrel.

Good if you sold.
Bad if you bought.

Am I getting the hang of this now?

[EternalOptimist]

CLF0 < 70 bucks.

is that good or bad ? i dont understand

[HairyArsedBloke]

Any updates today on your spekulative actitivies?

We need to know!

CLF0 < 70 bucks.

[AtW]

Any updates today on your spekulative actitivies?

We need to know!

[The_Equalizer]

To a total non-gambler, the concept of a semi-gamble doesn't make sense, so it's interesting.
It's because I equate gambling with risk I suppose, I can only see non-risk or risky. Black and white.
You were hinting at a shade of grey , so I was interested


I sought of imagined a scenario like 'wow this ten pound note is heavy, i will throw it down the grid. No wait, i will buy lottery tickets instead.'

I like that. Hopefully this has a better chance than a lottery ticket. I have, from time-to-time, bought classic cars at auction used and improved them and sold them on at a profit. Buying from auction is a bit like this, you can here them running and have a look at paperwork etc, but you don't get to drive them nor talk to the owners. There's a chance they'll be something wrong, but you factor that into the price. Anyway, probably all becoming a tad dull...

[The_Equalizer]

Doesnt work like that. You have no oppotunity to increase your chances of winning by increasing your stake.

There are six opportunities for success, each independent of the others, each with a different probability of success.

At the start of the drilling process you have a 27% chance of success assuming they start with the most likely prospect.

If this fails you now have a 23% chance of success, then 23% again, then 11%, 11% again, then 8%.

At no point are your chances of success better than 27%.

It's counter intuative, but there is no cumulative effect. Each event has it's own probability for success, unaffected by anything else that happens.
By your analogy, by the time you get to the 8% chance it should be almost certain to happen, it isn't.

If you tot up all the chances of success against all the chances of failure as percentages you get :

Total pool of possible outcomes = 600
( 6x100% chance that a result, good or bad, will occur).

Total pool of good outcomes = 27+23+23+11+11+6 = 106

Chance of any one event from the pool of possible events being good = (106/600)*100 = 17.6%

Perhaps we are talking about different things here? Desire are drilling six different prospects, the best well has a 27% chance of success and the worst 8%- see page 11 here:

http://www.desireplc.co.uk/pdfs/Desi...nal_Report.pdf

Even if they only drilled the first well they've got a 27% chance of success so how can it only be 17.6% of any of the six working out?

They don't need all to work out, just one would mean a tidy profit. If all six did - as I think you presume is required - then it would really would be happy days.

[EternalOptimist]

Is a gamble like something being unique? Never was any good at English.

To a total non-gambler, the concept of a semi-gamble doesn't make sense, so it's interesting.
It's because I equate gambling with risk I suppose, I can only see non-risk or risky. Black and white.
You were hinting at a shade of grey , so I was interested


I sought of imagined a scenario like 'wow this ten pound note is heavy, i will throw it down the grid. No wait, i will buy lottery tickets instead.'

[DaveB]

That's fine then as DES intend to drill six. In the same way that the chance of winning any prize on the Premium Bonds is about 1/25000 each month. With the full allowance of £30k, you're more than likely to win a prize every month. Not guaranteed mind you!

Doesnt work like that. You have no oppotunity to increase your chances of winning by increasing your stake.

There are six opportunities for success, each independent of the others, each with a different probability of success.

At the start of the drilling process you have a 27% chance of success assuming they start with the most likely prospect.

If this fails you now have a 23% chance of success, then 23% again, then 11%, 11% again, then 8%.

At no point are your chances of success better than 27%.

It's counter intuative, but there is no cumulative effect. Each event has it's own probability for success, unaffected by anything else that happens.
By your analogy, by the time you get to the 8% chance it should be almost certain to happen, it isn't.

If you tot up all the chances of success against all the chances of failure as percentages you get :

Total pool of possible outcomes = 600
( 6x100% chance that a result, good or bad, will occur).

Total pool of good outcomes = 27+23+23+11+11+6 = 106

Chance of any one event from the pool of possible events being good = (106/600)*100 = 17.6%

[AlfredJPruffock]

Gambling only pays when youre winning

The Market giveth
The Market taketh away

[The_Equalizer]

A semi gamble

Is a gamble like something being unique? Never was any good at English.