Reply to: Matched betting

[Zippy]

True

Have you ever seen a thread stay on topic here?

At least we're not blaming immigration yet though...

Fair point. I blame the daffodils and Cybertory.

[Pondlife]

Guys - most of you are not talking about matched betting (i.e. making money out of free bet offers from bookies).

True

Have you ever seen a thread stay on topic here?

At least we're not blaming immigration yet though...

[Zippy]

Guys - most of you are not talking about matched betting (i.e. making money out of free bet offers from bookies).

[scaramanga]

Me too. If you/I/anyone had a method for no risk winnings you/I/they wouldn't be posting on here.

Agreed. There used to be quite a good forum site aimed at amateur botters but the guy who ran it took it down because he felt he was helping people who were competing with him.

Anyway the conclusion I drew from reading it was that none of them were making enough for a decent living, despite all the hours they put into it. There's no such thing as easy money. Even if you could make a success of it, there would be serious hard graft involved doing the analysis, not just deciding to log onto betfair one day and start laying things.

[Pondlife]

Going back to the original point I have dabbled with various strategies and found it very easy to tread water but difficult to get into making regular profits.

Me too. If you/I/anyone had a method for no risk winnings you/I/they wouldn't be posting on here.

[scaramanga]

high surely

i.e. you lay 10 at 40/1 your liability is £390 but you stand to make a tenner if the nag loses.

The issue is that you have to manage finding a nag that can't win vs the risk of paying out on such a no hoper.

Outsides do come in quite often if you bet on enough races. You just have to hope it wasn't yours.

I read a theory from a professional gambler that Betfair would eventually run out of layers for this reason. I could see the logic, but it doesn't seem to have happened.

It seems madness for example to risk £1000 to win £1 which is what some people do. I remember a story of how a horse threw a rider off at a fence and it went to 1000/1 (the maximum allowed on Betfair). However all the other horses subsequently fell and the rider of this particular one was able to re-mount and hobble round to win.

In play is very dangerous because for example if someone is sitting in a betting shop with an SCS feed they will see the pictures 8 seconds before if it is on channel 4 or 4 seconds before if it is on at the races. That was the case a few years ago at least according to my bookie mate, but I can imagine it still holds true.

Going back to the original point I have dabbled with various strategies and found it very easy to tread water but difficult to get into making regular profits. I don't consider using free bets as a profit because you can't rely on them forever. I have not had much time to devote to it though.

I have been using the free API to capture prices for the 2 hours before the off of every race in the UK for the past 2-3 years. Unfortunately I have been too busy with plan A to do much analysis of it. However what I have done, the trouble is it is very easy to massage figures and retro fit a winning strategy but then when you try to apply it to the future it falls over.

[Zippy]

I've done this and made a couple of grand.

Make sure you read the bookies T & C very carefully and (unless you are an expert) stick to markets where the outcome is simple. Mostly I did football because the bookies and betting exchange rules were the same (result is the score at 90 minutes).

Drop me a PM if you want more details.

[Pondlife]

If you do it properly it should be no risk. You're placing a bet and laying a bet on a 2 horse race at favourable odds. The problem is that the margin is so small you need to be doing it with thousands to make any real money. Most horror stories are about people who didn't realise there was a 3rd possible outcome, which they didn't back.

Ok, the only zero risk is when you can get/see the arb before you bet. You can't (highly unlikely) get this with betfair. The only way is to have accounts with all the online bookies and to spend all day looking for the 0.1% difference in odds that will give the arb.

You then have to ensure you have sufficient funds in those two accounts to place enough of a bet to make it worth your while. You also have to be damn sure that there can, in no possible way, be a 3rd outcome buried in small print of the bookies' T&Cs.

The other way is thru betfair but then you are betting that one is over/under valued and that the odds will change to reflect that after you've bet so you can cover it.

[Bunk]

If you do it properly it should be no risk. You're placing a bet and laying a bet on a 2 horse race at favourable odds. The problem is that the margin is so small you need to be doing it with thousands to make any real money. Most horror stories are about people who didn't realise there was a 3rd possible outcome, which they didn't back.

[Moscow Mule]

You are essentially betting that one of the outcomes is over/under valued which means it's a punt. Plus you have to watch "in play".

My old housemate swore that it was a winner. He used to sit there in the lounge with the tennis on, glued to his laptop, constantly betting and chasing and by the end of the night he'd made £4. In his eyes it was £6 as he hadn't paid tax on it.

When I got back from the pub I'd point out that the guy who sold me the fried chicken I was now devouring had made considerably more in the last few hours.

Well, I don't know exactly how he does it, but I'm pretty sure he makes more than £1 an hour

[Pondlife]

Friend of a friend does arbitrage on betfair as his full-time job. Does very well out of it IIRC.

You are essentially betting that one of the outcomes is over/under valued which means it's a punt. Plus you have to watch "in play".

My old housemate swore that it was a winner. He used to sit there in the lounge with the tennis on, glued to his laptop, constantly betting and chasing and by the end of the night he'd made £4. In his eyes it was £6 as he hadn't paid tax on it.

When I got back from the pub I'd point out that the guy who sold me the fried chicken I was now devouring had made considerably more in the last few hours.

[Moscow Mule]

Friend of a friend does arbitrage on betfair as his full-time job. Does very well out of it IIRC.

[conned tractor]

high surely

Thank you.

[Pondlife]

Also a bit dangerous if laying a low odds bet as although you only stand to win only a small amount your liability if it comes in can be huge and I remember reading some horror stories. Also made a similar although not as extreme mistake myself once although it came in in my favour - so lucky there.

Some people claim to have made tens of thousands doing it - plus the arbs, but I don't think it would be worth it really for the time they must put in.

high surely

i.e. you lay 10 at 40/1 your liability is £390 but you stand to make a tenner if the nag loses.

The issue is that you have to manage finding a nag that can't win vs the risk of paying out on such a no hoper.

Outsides do come in quite often if you bet on enough races. You just have to hope it wasn't yours.

[conned tractor]

Made a few hundred out of matched betting a while back when i was at uni. Taking advantage of the offers given by the bookies was easy for a while but when you have exhausted the easy offers it gets harder. i.e. in order to cash out you had to rebet the money made from the offer at least 3 times and some offers are stake not returned. Not sure on current situation as haven't done it for ages.

Also a bit dangerous if laying a low odds bet as although you only stand to win only a small amount your liability if it comes in can be huge and I remember reading some horror stories. Also made a similar although not as extreme mistake myself once although it came in in my favour - so lucky there.

Some people claim to have made tens of thousands doing it - plus the arbs, but I don't think it would be worth it really for the time they must put in.