Reply to: House price crash

[BlackenedBiker]

I'm buying a BTL at the moment. Am I financially illiterate and if so why?

This should be good

I refer the gentleman to my previous comment.

[Moscow Mule]

I'm buying a BTL at the moment. Am I financially illiterate and if so why?

This should be good

IIRC, you're just just punting with <30% of your capital. At least you're not putting all your eggs in one basket...

[sasguru]

Only the financially illiterate would buy property at the moment, oh and Minestrone KUDOS to him

I'm buying a BTL at the moment. Am I financially illiterate and if so why?

This should be good

[Moscow Mule]

From my experience the property market is in good health!

Homes at realistic prices are selling. Buyers who put their house on at 2007 prices will wait a long time to sell.

[BlackenedBiker]

True, and I've noticed where I've been looking (N London) that there's a lot of property still on the market that's moving. I'm still not buying though - I believe that there's still room for the market to fall.

Only the financially illiterate would buy property at the moment, oh and Minestrone KUDOS to him

[Menelaus]

I'm selling my flat and it's now under offer at a decent price after spending about five days on the market. I stand to get more than I paid in 2006 -- not a great deal, but enough to be quite happy with. There was plenty of interest from first time buyers as there is a big shortage of affordable properties, in my area at least.

From my experience the property market is in good health!

True, and I've noticed where I've been looking (N London) that there's a lot of property still on the market that's moving. I'm still not buying though - I believe that there's still room for the market to fall.

[swamp]

I'm selling my flat and it's now under offer at a decent price after spending about five days on the market. I stand to get more than I paid in 2006 -- not a great deal, but enough to be quite happy with. There was plenty of interest from first time buyers as there is a big shortage of affordable properties, in my area at least.

From my experience the property market is in good health!

[SuperZ]

No this is a bull trap. Which means that prices go up a bit after the first declines to sucker more people into the market. Then the real decline begins.

Volumes are very light at the moment. Nobody can afford to sell cos they are in negative equity, and nobody can get a mortgage to buy.
Soon the dam will break with massive repossessions, and mansions for sale at pennies on the pound.

Down 25% this time next year.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk

The main problem at the moment is liquidity, caused mainly by lack of mortgages. It is hard to judge house prices. HOuse prices have risen recently but how many properties have been sold? It`s like some shares with poor liquidity, the price can rise and dip sharply in short periods of time.

We`re definately not going to have a quick recovery in house prices IMO. In the past a house price crash usually follows a stock market crash 18 months later. So given the 40% or whatever drop in stocks that I think mainly started in Sept 2008, and if that rule is going to be correct this time then a real house price crash could be due to start off by Feb 2010.

But who knows?

A friend a quite nice flat on the market at £90k, It`s been at that price for a while but was originally £115k. I see that as an indicator, until lots of transactions start happening at the lower end of the market I wouldn`t take too much notice of the house prices published personally. Oh and this property has been on the market for over 18months. I know the area well and at £90k it is a good deal

[minestrone]

I think that was the adjustment, people are willing to buy again now, there seems to be money in the system again and I had to go in to a final day against 5 bidders to get my house. I am sure crappy BTLs could take another kicking but most were overvalued anyway, 200 grand for a box in a 'executive' tower block. Just my thoughts though.

[leeperry]

It's ok, in the last crash there were periods when they went up for a few months. They'll go down again...

[Moscow Mule]

Due to the way account rules work, companies with a lot of bad debt on their hands are actually holding off repossessing for the next few years.

I know of a bank that has approx 180k properties they want to repossess. If they did it all this year, they'd have to re-classify a lot more property and their capital requirements would go through the roof. To get around it they are spreading those repossessions over the next 3 years.

[Menelaus]

That's called "catastrophism". It's not very good for your health you know, although it might get you a job at the BBC.

I am Robert Peston AICMFP

[d000hg]

Sold up in Feb 2007, bought again this month. Think I have probably made about 100,000 k

The same house?!

[dang65]

I fear that we may be in a W-shape and that this is the calm before the true storm.

/doom

That's called "catastrophism". It's not very good for your health you know, although it might get you a job at the BBC.

[KentPhilip]

No this is a bull trap. Which means that prices go up a bit after the first declines to sucker more people into the market. Then the real decline begins.

Volumes are very light at the moment. Nobody can afford to sell cos they are in negative equity, and nobody can get a mortgage to buy.
Soon the dam will break with massive repossessions, and mansions for sale at pennies on the pound.

Down 25% this time next year.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk