Reply to: When do you expect hyper-inflation to kick in?

[DimPrawn]

The problem I have is that I do not see where these new high value jobs are. The ones I do see are not numerous enough to sustain the working population.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8089037.stm

Sorted!

[The Lone Gunman]

People like IT contractors have done pretty well out of the last twenty odd years.

I hope, for all our sakes, that in the restructuring of the economy that is going on at the moment, the IT work has not gone the same way that the coal-mining and ship-building went twenty years ago.

Manufacturing went abroad to Country of cheapest supply. Maggie told everyone who was displaced to move into the service industries and pushed us to a service economy (grrrr!!!)
The service sector work is now rapidly goign abroad.
According to El Gordo and some other clowns it is OK. Even if our service sector jobs go abroad, all we have to do is retrain and move up the supply chain to higher value positions.

The problem I have is that I do not see where these new high value jobs are. The ones I do see are not numerous enough to sustain the working population.

[sweetandsour]

Yes, I see your point. However, the "wealth created" the last 20 odd years wasn't real was it? "Wealth" or the illusion of it, caused by explosive growth in unsustainable borrowing wasn't going to last was it? The UK has its largest ever peacetime public debt, the tax burden and inflation required to erode this debt will stifle the UK economy for at least a generation. This time it's different............etc..........

People like IT contractors have done pretty well out of the last twenty odd years.

I hope, for all our sakes, that in the restructuring of the economy that is going on at the moment, the IT work has not gone the same way that the coal-mining and ship-building went twenty years ago.

[PM-Junkie]

I believe it takes 6 months or so for the true effects of QE to be felt. They started running the presses mid march, so around mid September.

True....but in this case the UK economy is not the only one that is doing it, and actually the effects started to be felt pretty quickly possibly because the USA started doing it in November last year. Also bear in mind that there are some economies that are applying QE but are not quite so open about it.

So nobody actually knows what is going to happen because these circumstances are new. It's all interesting stuff though - especially if you are a saddo like me. I'd suggest just sitting back and enjoying the ride

[Fred Bloggs]

Weren't the doom-mongers in the early 1980s saying pretty much the same thing about how the country would go into terminal decline if it lost its coal-mining, ship-building, car-making and other manufacturing industries?

But despite that, the last fifteen years have been pretty damn good for me so I am sure that there is some hope.

Yes, I see your point. However, the "wealth created" the last 20 odd years wasn't real was it? "Wealth" or the illusion of it, caused by explosive growth in unsustainable borrowing wasn't going to last was it? The UK has its largest ever peacetime public debt, the tax burden and inflation required to erode this debt will stifle the UK economy for at least a generation. This time it's different............etc..........

[HairyArsedBloke]

Inflation is alive and well. The CPI for April was 2.3%. Still well above the target 2%. There is plenty of potential upward pressure too.

[mailric]

nope. its a big mars, i'll hand them that. but its still a mars. And its 89p for a can of coke too.

[BrilloPad]

Its already happened.... my local petrol station are charging 78 pence for a Mars bar.

Mine does 4 for £1.20.

Sure its not 78p for 2?

[mailric]

Its already happened.... my local petrol station are charging 78 pence for a Mars bar.

[BrilloPad]

Done it. My Poll virginity is over

Not a very imaginitve andyw option : hope you do better next time.

[Platypus]

If it means my earnings in Euros rocket against the pound then the sooner the better!

Absolutely! The pound's recent rise has cost me dearly

[Pickle2]

What happens if it doesn't work??
How will we know??
PZZ

Long drawn out period of deflation, a la Japan.

[HairyArsedBloke]

'Danny' Blanchflower is a T0sser.

[sweetandsour]

Correct. Sad to say, but I'm now convinced that the UK is truly MacDoomed, big time. We recovered from the 70's and 80's anarchy, thanks to Mrs T, largely. But we don't have the real wealth creating capacity now to recover. Ever.

Weren't the doom-mongers in the early 1980s saying pretty much the same thing about how the country would go into terminal decline if it lost its coal-mining, ship-building, car-making and other manufacturing industries?

But despite that, the last fifteen years have been pretty damn good for me so I am sure that there is some hope.

[Fred Bloggs]

I've plumped for September, but it could be a little later in the couple of months following. BOE interest rates are to start rising a few months time for sure. I don't see the Conservatives having any recognisable impact on something that is now completely out of all poilitical control.

Correct. Sad to say, but I'm now convinced that the UK is truly MacDoomed, big time. We recovered from the 70's and 80's anarchy, thanks to Mrs T, largely. But we don't have the real wealth creating capacity now to recover. Ever.