Reply to: BOOMED: City chief: Green shoots are here

[Pondlife]

Wasn't this what happened in the thirties? Slump from 31-33 : then recovery : then another big slump?

Almost like some sort of boom then bust cycle.

Good job those days are behind us, eh.

[BrilloPad]

If he's right it's very bad news. The assumption then would be that the current financial model ( excessive lending, living off credit) is sustainable and that no great consequences accrue from such behaviour.

Plus house prices haven't fallen by nearly enough ...


However as I mentioned in a thread a few days ago, I have a feeling he may be right, but for all the wrong reasons - never in history has so much money been thrown at a downturn. This is not a natural business/consumer driven recovery.
So it will just lead to further problems down the line.

Wasn't this what happened in the thirties? Slump from 31-33 : then recovery : then another big slump?

[Cyberman]

This guy has an interest in saying everything is fine. I call it conflict of interest, and it is load of old cobblers !!

[Cyberman]

I am inclined to think that the UK Government at the moment is like a person who has been on a colossal spending spree with their credit card.

They don't know how big the bill is going to be, but they know it is going to be big and are dreading the moment it lands on the doormat because they are not sure that they are going to be able to pay it.

They are not like that person at all because they are not responsible for the debts. Somebody else is and that is YOU !!

[DimPrawn]

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...oney%2BMorning

[PM-Junkie]

If he's right it's very bad news. The assumption then would be that the current financial model ( excessive lending, living off credit) is sustainable and that no great consequences accrue from such behaviour.

Plus house prices haven't fallen by nearly enough ...


However as I mentioned in a thread a few days ago, I have a feeling he may be right, but for all the wrong reasons - never in history has so much money been thrown at a downturn. This is not a natural business/consumer driven recovery.
So it will just lead to further problems down the line.

I've been saying the same for weeks. All that is happening is that we are papering over the cracks....the systemic problems are not being addressed because the people the people who need to fix them have a vested interest in keeping things as they are.

Result - in eight to ten years time, things will go belly up again...and next time it will be worse.

My strategy is to get myself into a position where I am financially independent with a variety of unrelated revenue streams by then. Hopefully one of them will survive!

[Gonzo]

However as I mentioned in a thread a few days ago, I have a feeling he may be right, but for all the wrong reasons - never in history has so much money been thrown at a downturn. This is not a natural business/consumer driven recovery.
So it will just lead to further problems down the line.

I am inclined to think that the UK Government at the moment is like a person who has been on a colossal spending spree with their credit card.

They don't know how big the bill is going to be, but they know it is going to be big and are dreading the moment it lands on the doormat because they are not sure that they are going to be able to pay it.

[sasguru]

It would be bad news in so much as, if we get away with it this time, we are only saving it up to be worse further down the line.

Great minds etc.

[Bagpuss]

Good analogy

[Pickle2]

The more cabbage and beans people eat the faster we will reach the 'blow off phase'.

In that case, im doing my bit for humanity for once.

[Mich the Tester]

It would be bad news in so much as, if we get away with it this time, we are only saving it up to be worse further down the line.

More likely we are just into the "Bull Trap" phase of the bubble cycle.

See pic.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...p_image001.jpg

The more cabbage and beans people eat the faster we will reach the 'blow off phase'.

[Pickle2]

It would be bad news in so much as, if we get away with it this time, we are only saving it up to be worse further down the line.

More likely we are just into the "Bull Trap" phase of the bubble cycle.

See pic.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...p_image001.jpg

[sasguru]

If he's right it's very bad news. The assumption then would be that the current financial model ( excessive lending, living off credit) is sustainable and that no great consequences accrue from such behaviour.

Plus house prices haven't fallen by nearly enough ...


However as I mentioned in a thread a few days ago, I have a feeling he may be right, but for all the wrong reasons - never in history has so much money been thrown at a downturn. This is not a natural business/consumer driven recovery.
So it will just lead to further problems down the line.

[Mich the Tester]

Maybe he's right. Wouldn't that be nice?

Ducks for cover and prepares for flame attack

[Bagpuss]

An expert from Barclays advises and predicts. How much did they lose in subprime again?