US facing long recession

[expat]

Nah. All Western countries are living beyond their means i.e. value-added in manufacturing and services doesn't cover what they pay themselves.
The UK has reached this point of post industrialisation first - what happens here is a template for the rest of Europe and America.
I suspect we'll become a banana republic with most people employed in the public sector.

We have already become

[sasguru]

China has trillions of $$$ in the bank. It can survive a collapse.

.

No it can't. Those trillions has to be spread among billions. And they're getting restive. My prediction is China will have huge internal problems.

[sasguru]

So if I've understood correctly the UK will import its way out the crisis.

Nice one.

Nah. All Western countries are living beyond their means i.e. value-added in manufacturing and services doesn't cover what they pay themselves.
The UK has reached this point of post industrialisation first - what happens here is a template for the rest of Europe and America.
I suspect we'll become a banana republic with most people employed in the public sector.

[DimPrawn]

Try and be logicial. If the British ( and Yanks, and everyone really) are not buying cars and plasmas, that will lead to the total collapse of the German and Chinese economies as Britain does not make that many cars and plasmas anymore.

China has trillions of $$$ in the bank. It can survive a collapse.

Britain however has trillions of £££ of debt. Once people stop buying, the import companies, retailers, warehouses, shops all go bust.

[BlasterBates]

So if I've understood correctly the UK will import its way out the crisis.

Nice one.

[darmstadt]

Try and be logicial. If the British ( and Yanks, and everyone really) are not buying cars and plasmas, that will lead to the total collapse of the German and Chinese economies as Britain does not make anything anymore.

[sasguru]

I think the mindset of the British people has changed. It's like a phase transition. People are no longer boasting about what cars they are going to buy, how they are ordering that 60" plasma next week, etc. No more talk about booming house prices. The illusion has been shattered.

Everyones focussed on one thing. Paying down debt, whether it be cards, loans or mortgages.

If everyones paying off debt, they ain't buying anything beyond the essentials. This is what will lead to the total collapse of the UK economy.

This New Labour architected recession will be both deep and very long.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7825213.stm

Enjoy.

Try and be logicial. If the British ( and Yanks, and everyone really) are not buying cars and plasmas, that will lead to the total collapse of the German and Chinese economies as Britain does not make that many cars and plasmas anymore.

[DimPrawn]

Those of you old enough will remember the same doom and gloom being peddled in the last recession - "it's the end of the world etc etc".

These latest predictions are based on the US following a Japanese pattern.
However I don't believe this will be the case as Americans behave very differently from the Japanese.

Also I believe the Uk will have a shallower recession simply because its economy is less export orientated than, say, Germany.
Germany will find that with its export markets collapsed that it will lead to a systematic retstructuring downwards of its motor industry in particular.

I think the mindset of the British people has changed. It's like a phase transition. People are no longer boasting about what cars they are going to buy, how they are ordering that 60" plasma next week, etc. No more talk about booming house prices. The illusion has been shattered.

Everyones focussed on one thing. Paying down debt, whether it be cards, loans or mortgages.

If everyones paying off debt, they ain't buying anything beyond the essentials. This is what will lead to the total collapse of the UK economy.

This New Labour architected recession will be both deep and very long.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7825213.stm

Enjoy.

[TimberWolf]

I imagine countries that are not reliant on exporting or importing would be the least worst hit in a global recession. Cue screams of protectionism. The UK can't be protectionist anyway as it needs the rest of the world for its food and energy. For us it's export (inc. services) or die (or borrow). Countries that export stuff that everyone needs even in times of recession (e.g. food exporters) would be okay too if they play their cards right.

[sasguru]

Those of you old enough will remember the same doom and gloom being peddled in the last recession - "it's the end of the world etc etc".

These latest predictions are based on the US following a Japanese pattern.
However I don't believe this will be the case as Americans behave very differently from the Japanese.

Also I believe the Uk will have a shallower recession simply because its economy is less export orientated than, say, Germany.
Germany will find that with its export markets collapsed that it will lead to a systematic retstructuring downwards of its motor industry in particular.

[BlasterBates]

that's true the UK got off lightly.

They need to focus on their empire. So only import from the Acension Islands and the Falklands. Yes and Rockall.

[Pickle2]

Its different this time.

I think the value of the pound will make our recession shallower than most.

Thats what happend in the great depression wasnt it?

[BrilloPad]

US facing decade of weakness

ooerr

complete the following sentence:

The UK's economy will recover quickly because:

Its different this time.

I think the value of the pound will make our recession shallower than most.

[BlasterBates]

US facing decade of weakness

ooerr

complete the following sentence:

The UK's economy will recover quickly because: