Reply to: Explainer: Santander grew under strict reserves regime

[EternalOptimist]

The article states that Santander are exposed to the Spanish housing market and also to the South American slowdown. Don't forget that little thing call a CDS(credit default swap) which will raise its profile very soon across the whole financial spectrum.

As I stated a month ago, it really is to early to crow. Time will tell, but I seem to recall banks such as RBS and HBOS posting good results only a few months ago. A few billion profit pales into insignificance once write-offs commence.

I agree. Crowing should, in my experience, follow a sort of exponential curve. Start off with a little crow, maybe 1 or 2% worth, then when you dont get flamed, wade in with a 5% sized crow. When you are sure you are right, let rip with a major crowing of about 80% of the full crow value.

I think you are being a bit premature with you midi-crow, please slacken off for a week or two

[Cyberman]

The big irony is that this Spanish bank seemed to have avoided the temptation to play Spanish morgages game leaving this for the mug banks in Britain and other places

The article states that Santander are exposed to the Spanish housing market and also to the South American slowdown. Don't forget that little thing call a CDS(credit default swap) which will raise its profile very soon across the whole financial spectrum.

As I stated a month ago, it really is to early to crow. Time will tell, but I seem to recall banks such as RBS and HBOS posting good results only a few months ago. A few billion profit pales into insignificance once write-offs commence.

[AtW]

You git.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/229a745c-a...077b07658.html

The big irony is that this Spanish bank seemed to have avoided the temptation to play Spanish morgages game leaving this for the mug banks in Britain and other places

[cupidstunt]

... and Lloyds are buying HBOS, and RBS are buying PART of Amro. Wise heads are now saying that both of those deals are destined for failure in the medium to short-term.

The problem is that when these purchases are made, the 'hidden' problems are not obvious. Who's to say that Santander may not be making a similar error. I think you are too quick to crow!!

I predicted a year ago that B&B and HBOS could be the next to fall after the nationalisation of the Rock. I now predict that Santander could hit similar problems. As I say, let's wait and see !!

You git.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/229a745c-a...077b07658.html

[AtW]

You need to work on your accent matey. That should be Laaaaarndaaaaaarn taaaaaaarn

I am more into poopular Welsh these days (SFW - if swearwords are safe, no n***** there though).

[The Lone Gunman]

Looooooondoooooooon

You need to work on your accent matey. That should be Laaaaarndaaaaaarn taaaaaaarn

[AtW]

Swiss banks are quite obviously not immune.

Yes, but they can use cheese, chocolate and cookoo clocks as collateral, what can UK use - £400k 1-bedroom house in the arse-end of Looooooondoooooooon?

[AtW]

UBS and Credit-Suisse got into the debt derivatives, but the rest of the Swiss banking system didn't. (I've no idea what %age of the market UBS and Credit-Suisse have here).

Let's hope so - just like you I am not sure %-tage of UBS and CS take there but I think it's pretty large. I hope the Swiss will make some long reaching conclusions about these speculative gains and focus on their core services - safe heaven for Putin's mates and alike.

[Cyberman]

UBS and Credit-Suisse got into the debt derivatives, but the rest of the Swiss banking system didn't. (I've no idea what %age of the market UBS and Credit-Suisse have here). Switzerland is not a credit driven economy, unlike the US and the UK. I wouldn't for a moment suggest that we'll be unaffected by swings in the global economy - but there is NO credit crunch here. Even UBS and Credit-suisse are quite happily dishing out domestic mortgages.

You do not know who has done these shady deals and you are making sweeping statements and dangerous assumptions. The credit crunch is worldwide and the ramifications are affecting any bank that borrows on the moneymarkets, not just those with US sub-prime, so Swiss banks are quite obviously not immune.

[NotAllThere]

That maybe so but the Swiss foolishly got into debt derivatives based on morgages issued by other banks - Spanish rules appear to have taken care of this issue with banks not allowed off balance sheet shady deals.

It is shocking that bank regulation in Spain (country of huge real estate boom) appears to be better than in Switzerland.

UBS and Credit-Suisse got into the debt derivatives, but the rest of the Swiss banking system didn't. (I've no idea what %age of the market UBS and Credit-Suisse have here). Switzerland is not a credit driven economy, unlike the US and the UK. I wouldn't for a moment suggest that we'll be unaffected by swings in the global economy - but there is NO credit crunch here. Even UBS and Credit-suisse are quite happily dishing out domestic mortgages.

[Cyberman]

And unions don't strike in France or Germany?

It was good to curb the unions (especially in public sector) but wholesale destruction of industry was totally insane.

I think UK was pretty far ahead in nuclear R&D in the past, yet now it has to use the French to do the stuff.

They certainly do, but they do not ask for 27% pay rises, and do not insist on reinstating workers caught drunk or sleeping on the job.... remember the night shift at British Leyland caught in their sleeping bags!!! We also had wildcat strikes and intimidation of those that wanted to work, that were only rectified in the 80s by Thatcher and her policy/law of secret ballots. Unfortunately the union reforms came in too late to save our industry.

Britain was a total mess in the 70s and now we're heading back to it under the same party!!!!

[AtW]

Our industry was decimated by our unions by making us uncompetitive and by invoking constant strikes in the 70's for ridiculous wage demands.

And unions don't strike in France or Germany?

It was good to curb the unions (especially in public sector) but wholesale destruction of industry was totally insane.

I think UK was pretty far ahead in nuclear R&D in the past, yet now it has to use the French to do the stuff.

[Cyberman]

I think fundamentally this country made strategic mistake when it decimated its industry (and this is in the country which started industrial revolution) while France and Germany managed to hold on their own.

Speculators in the City have zero loyalty and will go to any other country if it profits them personally, it was insane to rely on them for any serious income.

If UK was in eurozone it would have helped I think, but right now it is on its own really and the Govt is probably the worst from possible.

So sorry to say that but I think the UK is ****** in more than one way.

Our industry was decimated by our unions by making us uncompetitive and by invoking constant strikes in the 70's for ridiculous wage demands.

At least because we are not in the Euro, we will not be called upon to bail out the banks of those countries that are in the Euro. That is just one by-product of the pound that I am grateful for.

Many banks are also failing in the Eurozone(French, German and Spanish in particular) but the ECB has been sensible in allowing anonymity, which HMG in its wisdom last year said that we should not and thus brought down the Rock!!! Of course it later changed its policy to a degree.

[AtW]

I suppose we are open to a double whammy, the crisis itself and that some of our wealth comes from profiting from dodgy practises?

I think fundamentally this country made strategic mistake when it decimated its industry (and this is in the country which started industrial revolution) while France and Germany managed to hold on their own.

Speculators in the City have zero loyalty and will go to any other country if it profits them personally, it was insane to rely on them for any serious income.

If UK was in eurozone it would have helped I think, but right now it is on its own really and the Govt is probably the worst from possible.

So sorry to say that but I think the UK is ****** in more than one way.

[TimberWolf]

I suppose we are open to a double whammy, the crisis itself and that some of our wealth comes from profiting from dodgy practises?