Reply to: halifax suspends house price index

[scooterscot]

Who is halifax?

[BrilloPad]

aww come on...this is the best possible time for mortgage lenders to be making predictions. It's not like they've got much other work on right now.

"The CML’s last forecast, made in May, was for prices to be 7 per cent lower in the fourth quarter than last year."

That was after a drop until May of 7%.

I bet they are still making predictions - just too gloomy to publish.

[thunderlizard]

The Council of Mortgage Lenders, whose house price forecasts have been among the UK’s most optimistic, on Tuesday threw in the towel, saying conditions were too difficult to make predictions

aww come on...this is the best possible time for mortgage lenders to be making predictions. It's not like they've got much other work on right now.

[DodgyAccountant]

Truth stranger than fiction?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d039526-8...0779fd18c.html

[OwlHoot]

.. Elsewhere, Gordon Brown in his speech later today is expected to announce proposals aimed at reviving the UK’s sagging economy. These are seen including house prices in the CPI, ..

He must be desperate to try such a transparent trick. The Press will easily be able to work out and quote the CPI without including house prices.

[TykeMerc]

Do the Land Registry figures give month on month activity figures or are they only historical sales values?

If, as the Mondas Right Winger asserts, house values are rising in his area and have been for ages is that assertion based on a meaningful volume of house sales compared to previous years? How are the figures adjusted for volumes including the current effectively "no sales at all" situation?

My feeling is that with buyers reluctant to commit while they await the market bottom and sellers unwilling or unable to sell with the way prices are heading that the figures for sales are effectively meaningless at the moment.

[AtW]

nobody will sell unless they really have to in this market.

I remember few years ago when rates were 3.5% and people were loading up themselves with morgages at discount rates - they were told (and though), 2 years fixed low rate is not a problem that it goes up in 2 years much higher, we will just switch provider! Now how they are going to switch them now? A lot of people will be coming off those cheap rates and having to pay a LOT more on full expensive value of their house. The most that will be shafted going to be those who bought in 2006-7, they will be coming off cheap rates rigth about now - some will have to easily pay double the morgage they used to paying, just how the hell anyone can think they won't default? They certainly will. And "their" houses will be sold - at any price.

[Cyberman]

Maybe they fallen by 10%, how do you know if Land Registry's figures don't include incentives like free cars etc?

Thing is - it does not really matter if those figures were reliable at the time - the situation changed and there is simply not enough money to lend in order to maintain current price levels, period. So prices will have to fall to levels where lending can support it - this is way below peak, 35-45% is probably going to be pretty conservative estimate.

Where people are forced to sell through unemployment, they have no power over the price so you could be right, but nobody will sell unless they really have to in this market.

[AtW]

The number offering free cars is just above 0% of transactions so is hardly likely to distort the figures. You really are clutching at straws.... as usual !!

No, I am not clutching anything - it is people who are desperate to sell houses that are trying every trick to sell their house without loss. I was looking at prices of houses in other places than UK, like France and wondering just why the fook anybody would buy a overpriced small house in this country when they can do so much better elsewhere? Having a job here is the only excuse really.

[Cyberman]

Maybe they fallen by 10%, how do you know if Land Registry's figures don't include incentives like free cars etc?

Thing is - it does not really matter if those figures were reliable at the time - the situation changed and there is simply not enough money to lend in order to maintain current price levels, period. So prices will have to fall to levels where lending can support it - this is way below peak, 35-45% is probably going to be pretty conservative estimate.

The number offering free cars is just above 0% of transactions so is hardly likely to distort the figures. You really are clutching at straws.... as usual !!

[AtW]

So based on your assertion Atw, perhaps house prices in my area have actually risen by more than 1% in the past year !!

Maybe they fallen by 10%, how do you know if Land Registry's figures don't include incentives like free cars etc?

Thing is - it does not really matter if those figures were reliable at the time - the situation changed and there is simply not enough money to lend in order to maintain current price levels, period. So prices will have to fall to levels where lending can support it - this is way below peak, 35-45% is probably going to be pretty conservative estimate.

[Churchill]

POTD - Plagiarisation Of The Day

You're not quite in the realms of Threaded yet dear boy!

[Cyberman]

No - those figures are what buyer and seller agreed to put on paper - off balance deals to faciliate sale are not there. Case in point - during house pricing boom I've seen personally people who agreed with buyers lower price to avoid higher rate of stamp duty in order to pay extra for "furtniture" in the house.

I agree that your scenario does happen but it is illegal to pay more than fair value for contents in order to reduce stamp duty, and of course this will only usually happen around the bandings where it can make a big difference.

To make out as you appear to do that most buyers and sellers are carrying out this illegal practice is wrong, and in any case false reductions in house prices would mean that the land registry prices are under-inflated and this is actually very good news in that house prices have not fallen as much as land registry figures would suggest.

So based on your assertion Atw, perhaps house prices in my area have actually risen by more than 1% in the past year !!

[rootsnall]

Good one Roots!

POTD!

POTD - Plagiarisation Of The Day

[Churchill]

Good one Roots!

POTD!