Reply to: Quick summary of what's happening with the economy

[TimberWolf]

Have long have we got until things get really bad then?

Too late, you might have missed it.

IMF raises world economic targets
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic forecast after the impact of a credit crunch was not as severe as had been first feared.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7511766.stm

[Nicky G]

Posted this on another thread, but think it deserves a thread of it's own:

Oil prices are just one side of the doom.
The main problem as I see it is debt caused by poor lending practices. Currently we are seeing a credit crunch caused by poor lending on mortgages in the US. This debt was sold on to the world banks who have suffered as a result and withdrawn credit. This has led to a destruction in the housing market and hence confidence. This in turn will lead to a contraction in spending, which will lead to companies going bust/and or poor results, which will lead to rising unemployment. That will lead to the fallout from people defaulting on their massive credit card debt and a second round of pain in the financial industry. (Credit card debt is sold on just like mortgage debt). All the while the housing market will be falling like a stone. The whole pack of cards is collapsing.
Oil prices and hence higher costs for everything are just accelerating the process.

Have long have we got until things get really bad then?

[HairyArsedBloke]

Okay smart arse.

Thank you. You look nice too.

[Moscow Mule]

Given that the missus can cook better than most restaurants I know and genuinely enjoys it, I see little point in eating out.

better pot noodles than

[sasguru]

I bet sas spends 4 hours scouring all the menus, totting up the margins, before opting to go home and have another pot noodle in the back room.

Given that the missus can cook better than most restaurants I know and genuinely enjoys it, I see little point in eating out.

[Ruprect]

Good point - my cousin designs refineries and has never been so busy - good rates too - boomed.

IIRC don't the Iraquis and Iranians price their oil in Euros just to annoy the septics?

No, they threatened to trade it in Euros instead of $. That really would send the dollar to sh1t

[Peoplesoft bloke]

Oil has been going up, even in non-dollar terms, because of the demand for it. This is partly to hold other classes of asset as an alternative to stocks and real-estate. It is also to build stocks for reserves and ahead of perceived further price rises. However, demand is not need. Actual consumption from India, China, etc has not gone up anything like as much to warrant these prices. The producers know that there isn’t the real need for the volume of oil that’s why they do not respond to idiots like Brown asking them to pump more. There is plenty of oil sitting in tankers in the gulf with nowhere to go. The problem is that it‘s heavy oil. What there is a shortage of is refining capability. It’s a problem that has been a long time in the making and will take even longer to fix.

Good point - my cousin designs refineries and has never been so busy - good rates too - boomed.

IIRC don't the Iraquis and Iranians price their oil in Euros just to annoy the septics?

[DimPrawn]

It sounds like a sad existence when you have to ask yourself what state the economy is in before decidng whether to go out for a meal or not.

I bet sas spends 4 hours scouring all the menus, totting up the margins, before opting to go home and have another pot noodle in the back room.

[oracleslave]

Coz some idiots who ate out in the boom have been stupid enough to pay the sky high margins restaurants have been getting away with.

It sounds like a sad existence when you have to ask yourself what state the economy is in before decidng whether to go out for a meal or not.

[DimPrawn]

Coz some idiots who ate out in the boom have been stupid enough to pay the sky high margins restaurants have been getting away with.
Take polenta, marketed as a delicacy. Genius! The Italian peasants and poor Africans who eat a similar dish would laugh their tits off at the London idiots who pay £10 a pop for it.

They can't help it, they also think £500K is a good price for an ex-council flat in Hackney,

[DimPrawn]

Oil has been going up, even in non-dollar terms, because of the demand for it. This is partly to hold other classes of asset as an alternative to stocks and real-estate. It is also to build stocks for reserves and ahead of perceived further price rises. However, demand is not need. Actual consumption from India, China, etc has not gone up anything like as much to warrant these prices. The producers know that there isn’t the real need for the volume of oil that’s why they do not respond to idiots like Brown asking them to pump more. There is plenty of oil sitting in tankers in the gulf with nowhere to go. The problem is that it‘s heavy oil. What there is a shortage of is refining capability. It’s a problem that has been a long time in the making and will take even longer to fix.

Okay smart arse.

[sasguru]

So why is eating out cost falling when food etc. is up 10% or more ?

Makes no sense.

Coz some idiots who ate out in the boom have been stupid enough to pay the sky high margins restaurants have been getting away with.
Take polenta, marketed as a delicacy. Genius! The Italian peasants and poor Africans who eat a similar dish would laugh their tits off at the London idiots who pay £10 a pop for it.

[HairyArsedBloke]

Oil is not going up because there is a shortage of oil, it is going up because it is priced in US $, and the US economy is bolluxed and their currency is becoming worthless.

Oil has been going up, even in non-dollar terms, because of the demand for it. This is partly to hold other classes of asset as an alternative to stocks and real-estate. It is also to build stocks for reserves and ahead of perceived further price rises. However, demand is not need. Actual consumption from India, China, etc has not gone up anything like as much to warrant these prices. The producers know that there isn’t the real need for the volume of oil that’s why they do not respond to idiots like Brown asking them to pump more. There is plenty of oil sitting in tankers in the gulf with nowhere to go. The problem is that it‘s heavy oil. What there is a shortage of is refining capability. It’s a problem that has been a long time in the making and will take even longer to fix.

[BrilloPad]

You are AtW and I claim my free bullet proof X5!

I knew I should have added "in true cuk tradition".

[DimPrawn]

I am no expert - but will comment as if I know what I am talking about!

You are AtW and I claim my free bullet proof X5!