Reply to: What will your house be worth in 2018?

[HairyArsedBloke]

The futures contract is effectively a bet on the price of an asset or commodity at some point in the future. If you buy these housing futures contracts now, you will gain big time if prices rise over the next 10 years. However, the market thinks you're on to a loser.

No it’s not; a futures contract is for a deal done today for the delivery of a commodity at some specific date in time to come. The price also reflects funding and storage costs over the lifetime of the contract.

Anyway, using your logic; you’ll be quids in because oil will be so much cheaper. On Friday November 2013 crude was just over 99 buck whereas the front month was over 110. However, six months ago November 2013 was about 80 and May 2008 was 90.

[BrilloPad]

I've spent the last few days on an estate agents forum and a bankers bulletin board.
God!!! all they bloody talk about on there is IT Contracting

well - IT contracting is alot more fun than either of those.

I bet their posts are not as quality as NF's!

[Turion]

Another case of ignorance; price of a futures contract does not mean the price in the future.

Can everyone please ignore idiots who post links to the guardian and the independent.

The futures contract is effectively a bet on the price of an asset or commodity at some point in the future. If you buy these housing futures contracts now, you will gain big time if prices rise over the next 10 years. However, the market thinks you're on to a loser.

[Diver]

I've spent the last few days on an estate agents forum and a bankers bulletin board.
God!!! all they bloody talk about on there is IT Contracting

[Francko]

the 'My house is my pension' crowd

Is there something wrong to consider the house as a part of your pension? Unless you keep working hard until you drop dead so that you can pay rent and living expenses, I still see that having a flat/house with no mortgage is a good option. Even better if you have a flat/house in a high cost of living part of the world that will guarantee you a decent income in some other cheap locations. Doom-mongers like you should try to see a little bit further ahead, just as much as the people who foolishly believed that they would have become rich watching their flat value going up on paper 10% more every year.

[BlasterBates]

Another case of ignorance; price of a futures contract does not mean the price in the future.

Can everyone please ignore idiots who post links to the guardian and the independent.

hmm disbelief->denial->panic->anger->acceptance

[HairyArsedBloke]

The cost of futures contracts linked to house prices suggests the value of the average home will not rise back above its current level until 2018

Another case of ignorance; price of a futures contract does not mean the price in the future.

Can everyone please ignore idiots who post links to the guardian and the independent.

[Turion]

mother-out-law stayinhg at our place for 2 weeks - her friend was clearing out his dead mother's place. found £168,000 under the mattress!!!

I thought under the mattress was aprocraphol.

You can't beat the BoM. These oldies swear by it. Instant access and all that. Plus no other bugger can get their hands on it. All the current problems are down to banks lending others peoples money.

If that cash was in tenners then it would need 16800 notes! As a geriatric has been sleeping on it , would literally need laundering to make it useable! Good way of passing money inheritance tax free though.

[BrilloPad]

True enough, and the answer will be no less palatable - they be probably be worth no more in 2018, than if sold now and the cash deposited in the Bank of Mattress (BoM).

mother-out-law stayinhg at our place for 2 weeks - her friend was clearing out his dead mother's place. found £168,000 under the mattress!!!

I thought under the mattress was aprocraphol.

[Turion]

ooops

though you could have said "what will your rental proerties be worth" or even "what will your houses be worth"

True enough, and the answer will be no less palatable - they be probably be worth no more in 2018, than if sold now and the cash deposited in the Bank of Mattress (BoM).

[BrilloPad]

This article is not aimed at the 'you buy a house to live in' segment. In fact this endangered species could make a come back.

It's for those who believe houses are cash ATMs that dish out money endlessly. These include the BLT and MTL brigades, the 'My house is my pension' crowd and the MEW spenders. For those that are heavily borrowed, it seems that houses will become cash vacuum cleaners sucking in their money for years to come.

ooops

though you could have said "what will your rental proerties be worth" or even "what will your houses be worth"

[BrilloPad]

Bollux.
HTH.

So what is your prediction?

[Turion]

I still want to live in my house in 2018 so I don't care. What I am more interested in is my mortgage rate and so how much interest I have to pay.

This article is not aimed at the 'you buy a house to live in' segment. In fact this endangered species could make a come back.

It's for those who believe houses are cash ATMs that dish out money endlessly. These include the BLT and MTL brigades, the 'My house is my pension' crowd and the MEW spenders. For those that are heavily borrowed, it seems that houses will become cash vacuum cleaners sucking in their money for years to come.

[sasguru]

Well, according to derivatives marketeers, about the same as now. They also reckon on falls during the next 3 years, so things will not be dead pan flat during that time. So, in real terms we're looking at some very hefty falls in value over the next decade.

"Figures from Tradition, an interdealer broker, will today reveal that the derivatives market is now pricing in falls in house prices for the next three years. The cost of futures contracts linked to house prices suggests the value of the average home will not rise back above its current level until 2018"


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...ry-807855.html

Bollux.
HTH.

[BrilloPad]

I still want to live in my house in 2018 so I don't care. What I am more interested in is my mortgage rate and so how much interest I have to pay.