Reply to: Where can I find expert analysis on housing predictions?

[Xenophon]

Is very sideways the same as pear shaped. Sounds like you'll end up pair shaped.

Not at all. All is neat and tidy in that respect. My gripe is the constant speculation.

[sasguru]

Buy a house on a work visa that expires if you lose job, and you seriously suggesting buying house during .CON bust with IT downturn that quickly followed? As I said - I am a rational, not an idiot that would risk long term future for the sake of some profits that can easily turn into losses. I don't think buying house past 2001 would have been smart anyway - certainly past 2002.

You were rational enough to work for a dot com company that went bust. Didn't you see that coming? I did, I made lots of money then too

[AtW]

If you were a rational person, you would have bought something 5-10 years ago

Buy a house on a work visa that expires if you lose job, and you seriously suggesting buying house during .CON bust with IT downturn that quickly followed? As I said - I am a rational, not an idiot that would risk long term future for the sake of some profits that can easily turn into losses. I don't think buying house past 2001 would have been smart anyway - certainly past 2002.

[Francko]

If there were more people in this country who (like me) can act rationally inline with their rational believes, then this house pricing bubble would have never happened.

If you were a rational person, you would have bought something 5-10 years ago and cashed in now for a semi-retirement lumpsum like most of us did instead of wasting your time writing about house prices on an internet forum.

[Marina]

I wish everyone would shut the hell up about house prices.

If it all goes very sideways for me I'm going to get wasted and go lie face-down on a beach in Ibiza.

Naked.

Is very sideways the same as pear shaped. Sounds like you'll end up pair shaped.

[Xenophon]

I wish everyone would shut the hell up about house prices.

If it all goes very sideways for me I'm going to get wasted and go lie face-down on a beach in Ibiza.

Naked.

[AtW]

I still don't get your point. You won't be buying when prices are dropping. You didn't have the guts to buy when the market was going up 20%, how do you think you feel like buying when the market is stalling...

I am not buying houses that I think are overpriced and that's the end of it. The minimum price fall that is necessary for me to even consider buying is 30%, I think in this case it is going to be 50% back to more sensible values.

If there were more people in this country who (like me) can act rationally inline with their rational believes, then this house pricing bubble would have never happened.

The Govt might not be able to regular prices, but it can regulate risk that banks are taking on - set max loan to 3 times NET salary, minimum 25% deposit and that will be brakes on any house price increases for a long time.

[Cyberman]

Thursday

What makes you think the banks are going to pass on those cheaper rates? They are using this situation as an opportunity to boost margins (which have been tulip for years) on better quality debtors.

They probably won't pass on lower rates initially due to the high LIBOR rate and limited liquidity, but the BofE is going to loan against bank equities at a rate that could well be less than LIBOR, so within a few weeks we could see some downward movement in rates. With the increased liquidity, and with some extreme rate cuts, which are long overdue IMO, we could see New Lie stave off a major recession.

Once the banks see a bit of daylight and positive signs with house prices(ie. no major crash) and the economy they will then start 'riskier' lending again, but this will be a few months down the road.

[Moscow Mule]

Mortgage rates will start to fall within a few weeks/months as liquidity improves and LIBOR falls, making it much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. The bank rate will be cut tomorrow, possibly by .5% as the Bank of England finally gets its arse into gear. High interest rates are unsustainable for New Lie, with a major recession imminent, so you can be sure that there is a lot of pressure being applied on the 'independent' BofE for major rate reductions.

Thursday

What makes you think the banks are going to pass on those cheaper rates? They are using this situation as an opportunity to boost margins (which have been tulip for years) on better quality debtors.

[Cyberman]

Indeed. We shall see in 6 months time the effect of higher morgage rates and general lack of morgages for buyers.

Mortgage rates will start to fall within a few weeks/months as liquidity improves and LIBOR falls, making it much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. The bank rate will be cut tomorrow, possibly by .5% as the Bank of England finally gets its arse into gear. High interest rates are unsustainable for New Lie, with a major recession imminent, so you can be sure that there is a lot of pressure being applied on the 'independent' BofE for major rate reductions.

[Francko]

Indeed. We shall see in 6 months time the effect of higher morgage rates and general lack of morgages for buyers.

I still don't get your point. You won't be buying when prices are dropping. You didn't have the guts to buy when the market was going up 20%, how do you think you feel like buying when the market is stalling...

Besides, when prices will really start to crash, banks will start demanding a large deposit that you don't have so again you won't be able to buy.

So the situation of the housing market in your life is totally irrelevant, stop being obsessed and get on with your squirrels.

[shoes]

Those people that can't afford to buy rent. End of. Rental prices and yields don't drive the whole of the housing market.

Cr4p.

I can afford to buy but I rent. Because it is cheaper and suits my lifestyle. When prices come down there will come a point when it is cheaper to buy than rent (for my circumstances, ie contractor sized deposit). At that point I am likely to buy a home for myself. I will also seriously consider BTL.

Rental prices are an indication of affordability. House prices are an indication of the availability of credit. This is how house prices have risen relative to rents to a point where it is cheaper to rent than buy.

Whats coming next is fairly obvious.

[AtW]

Not yet you're not. There is no crash. This may prove to be the start of one but nobody actually knows.

Indeed. We shall see in 6 months time the effect of higher morgage rates and general lack of morgages for buyers.

[ASB]

The funny thing is that the alternative point of view on this board was pretty much that prices can't crash at all - comparing to those guys I am 200% correct

Not yet you're not. There is no crash. This may prove to be the start of one but nobody actually knows.

Anyway I seem to recall the prevailing view was that prices and affordability were sustainable at their then current levels.

[M_B]

The AtW baiting in this thread is quite frankly childish.

You all need to have a word with yourselves, otherwise some other poor f****r like me will end up reading this far too.