Reply to: Odds of being a victim of a tube bombing?

[zathras]

What are the odds if you use the tube every day in central London in Peak hours?
I work out that even if there was a bombing campaign every day (assuming 4 bombs per day), you would go roughly 126 days before being in a bombed train.

I'm sorry but this is not a flippant question and I don't mean to be disrespectful of those who lost their lives yesterday - but it is a question of vital importance to Londoners

Well there are 3million journeys made on Bus and Tubes a day in London. There was what 4 bombs so that would be so small that your possibilities of being on one of those journeys rather less than your chances of being run over on the same journey.

Frankly it is of no importance to this Londoner. If they get me, my problems are over and if they don't I've got nothing to worry about.

[SupremeSpod]

Well I was in London on Thursday and couldn't contact anyone. I assumed that hubby (using Bayesian probability) would conclude that I wasn't involved...

Does he know how much life insurance you've got?

[cojak]

Well I was in London on Thursday and couldn't contact anyone. I assumed that hubby (using Bayesian probability) would conclude that I wasn't involved...

[AtW]

It's not as if these bombers are hiding around the corner waiting to do it again tomorrow, is it.

Politicians know they can get away with such acts happening from time to time because indeed it is nearly impossible to defend oneself, but politicians know they won't be forgiven if such act gets repeated very shortly, like next day: that's why they go on full alert. Additionally this shows they "are doing something about it".

The police have got a really hard case to solve -- can't remember why the Spanish police was so fast to find the cell that was responsible for the attack.

[stackpole]

Tube bombing

This is a serious topic and my sympathies go out to everyone affected by this bombing, but I couldn't help laughing at politicians telling us about the sudden enhanced levels of security around London today. It's not as if these bombers are hiding around the corner waiting to do it again tomorrow, is it.

At least it got wall-to-wall Olympics off the bloody news. Trouble is, when I turn on the radio now, I'm bored senseless by wall-to-wall bomb "news". Especially interviews with everyone, it seems to me, in the world.

[EternalOptimist]

Useless

Video camera evidence is useless if you are dealing with a suicide bomber, and putting people with luggage in a bomb proof container is useless if they are wearing a strap-on or are wearing dodgy shoes.


I dont mean to be callous but I can see a real big **** off money spinning idea here. Any one wants to chip in give me a call.

[Francko]

I assume you are the FrancoLondinium of yore ..

My calculations are flawed (its Friday and I'm tired). My thinking is that there are 506 trains every morning rush hour (Tfl stats), assuming 4 are bombed its 4/506 chance of being on a train.

Of course that assumes that you pick a random one of those trains, which is practically impossible. To calculate more accurate odds you need to know the frequency of the particluar line you take. You also will need to know if a particular line is targeted more often ...

Ok. But still even if you are on train you need to calculate the chances that you are on the carriage. How many carriages? 6 so this already become 506/4 * 6. Plus also the probability of remaining alive even if you are on the same carriage... which would be 30%??? (really just wild guessing at this). So, 506/4 * 6 =759. Calculating 70% of being hit chance, that means you have to take over 1000 trips which are more than 4 years one-way trip.

[Lucifer Box]

I remember recently there was an outcry because the CCTV on a bus or train wasnt working because they didnt have spare tapes or something?

Hang on a minute, didn't they fly Milan in this week specifically to change the tapes?

[sasguru]

To Franco

I assume you are the FrancoLondinium of yore ..

My calculations are flawed (its Friday and I'm tired). My thinking is that there are 506 trains every morning rush hour (Tfl stats), assuming 4 are bombed its 4/506 chance of being on a train.

Of course that assumes that you pick a random one of those trains, which is practically impossible. To calculate more accurate odds you need to know the frequency of the particluar line you take. You also will need to know if a particular line is targeted more often ...

[WageSlave]

AtW, the number of whites in London greatly exceeds the number of Arabs. I don't need an official statistic to tell me that.
Your suggestion is a good one, but I don't think it would ever get off the ground. Too much like segregation and it would be difficult to enforce. Would people be prepared to pay the extra cost it would entail? Sure, it might increase safety and save lives, but when times are good (bombs do not go off every day, unlike Iraq or Israel) people only care about their wallet. In order for people to readily reach into their pockets, they need to be convinced there is a real and ongoing danger to their safety. Such a situation exists in Israel. I don't the general perception is that we are quite that bad....yet!

[Francko]

What are the odds if you use the tube every day in central London in Peak hours?
I work out that even if there was a bombing campaign every day (assuming 4 bombs per day), you would go roughly 126 days before being in a bombed train.

I'm sorry but this is not a flippant question and I don't mean to be disrespectful of those who lost their lives yesterday - but it is a question of vital importance to Londoners

Can you put down some figures for this analysis?

p.s. sorry to be the annoying technically aware person who spoils clueless managers fun at the meetings

[AtW]

With Islamic terrorism in the UK, the number of potential suspects is greatly reduced.

Have you checked percentage of white population in London? Your suggestion is a non-starter.

A better one would be require people with luggage and backpacks to sit in specially designed blast proof carriageway -- those who choose to carry luggage have to accept higher risk.

[WageSlave]

Without wishing to play the race card, I suppose the one natural defence we have is that these terrorists are relatively easy to spot - they aren't white. A member of the IRA could be anyone in the crowd. With Islamic terrorism in the UK, the number of potential suspects is greatly reduced.

[sasguru]

Missed

The fookers missed me by half an hour yesterday ...

Yah boo sucks I'm still here you w*nkers!!! I wish I believed in Chico's hell so you could rot there. Unfortunately you won't. But I think life in a prison where you get to pick up Big Bubba's soap in the shower every day would be a start.

[Mailman]

I remember recently there was an outcry because the CCTV on a bus or train wasnt working because they didnt have spare tapes or something?

Mailman