Reply to: Groundhog Day

[Gonzo]

Didn't we do this yesterday

Deja vu !

Yes, I am sure that I am repeating myself

[BrilloPad]

Seems to me that economic forecasts are as difficult as predicting the weather. Perhaps more difficult, and possibly doomed to failure, since getting an accurate weather forecast doesn’t change the climate.

There are only two things I remember from economics classes and these are the supply and demand curves, and the boom and recession cycles. Apparently the latter does not apply anymore

Anyway aren’t recessions or crashes meant to be unexpected? This next one seems to be being predicted all over the place, which is confusing things. Perhaps all will start to seem well…. and then DOOMED?

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed
that his room is not yet ready.

"I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We
are very sorry, but it's the best we can do and you
will have to share the room with others", he is told
by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and
that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So
the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert
is introduced to all of the present inhabitants.

"See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!"

"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss
mathematics!"

"And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!"

"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss
physics!"

"And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!"

"That's Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays
at the theater!"

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert's
hand and shake it. "I'm your last room mate and I'm
sorry, but my IQ is only 80."

Albert smiles back at him and says, "So, where do
you think interest rates are headed?"

[Diver]

Didn't we do this yesterday

Deja vu !

[Gonzo]

Seems to me that economic forecasts are as difficult as predicting the weather. Perhaps more difficult, and possibly doomed to failure, since getting an accurate weather forecast doesn’t change the climate.

I had this conversation when I bumped into a school friend a few years back. He had just finished his degree in Economics and was just about to start his Masters.

He said that if you want a prediction of how the economy is going to go and you have the choice between asking an Economist and asking a witch-doctor, ask the witch-doctor. There is a tiny chance that the witch-doctor might be right. The Economist will be wrong.

Anyway, he is now Chief Financial Officer of a finance firm in the Bahamas, and I am where I am, so I think I know who gets the last laugh over Economics.

[BrilloPad]

Absolutely. Even if the weather gets better the winter of financial turmoil will last longer than 6 weeks that is for sure. And I don't need a American rat's shadow to tell me that.

http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...essing-me.html

[TimberWolf]

"Of course, the questions are all the same every year and never change. It is the answers that are different each year."

Seems to me that economic forecasts are as difficult as predicting the weather. Perhaps more difficult, and possibly doomed to failure, since getting an accurate weather forecast doesn’t change the climate.

There are only two things I remember from economics classes and these are the supply and demand curves, and the boom and recession cycles. Apparently the latter does not apply anymore

Anyway aren’t recessions or crashes meant to be unexpected? This next one seems to be being predicted all over the place, which is confusing things. Perhaps all will start to seem well…. and then DOOMED?

[TimberWolf]

Huh? But it is completely and utterly meaningless.

Our coldest weather is statistically at the end of Jan / beginning of Feb. Mid-winter is around that date too.

Apart from the fact that it does have a meaning in the sense of the weather improving and being cute since when did a celebration have to have a meaning? Non-christians celebrate Easter / Christmas, etc.

[d000hg]

I never even knew it was a real day. I thought they made it up for the film... which was pretty good.

[Gonzo]

Regarding predictions of gloom, the beauty of economics is that everyone can be right eventually, whether their predictions are based on complex mathematical models or a Marmots tail.

An economics graduate is passing his old college and decides to call in and visit one of his old tutors.

They have a long chat and the graduate asks to see one of the current examination papers so that he can see the questions that the current undergraduates have to answer.

He is astonished to see that the exam questions are all identical to the ones that he had to answer when he did his finals. He queries this and his tutor tells him

"Of course, the questions are all the same every year and never change. It is the answers that are different each year."

[BrowneIssue]

Groundhog Day is one of the better and cuter customs that we could import from the states for sure.

Huh? But it is completely and utterly meaningless.

WE DO NOT HAVE THE SAME CLIMATE AS THE USA, FFS.

Do we really have to Merkinise everything?

[TimberWolf]

Absolutely. Even if the weather gets better the winter of financial turmoil will last longer than 6 weeks that is for sure. And I don't need a American rat's shadow to tell me that.

Groundhog Day is one of the better and cuter customs that we could import from the states for sure. The film was good anyway. Regarding predictions of gloom, the beauty of economics is that everyone can be right eventually, whether their predictions are based on complex mathematical models or a Marmots tail.

[AtW]

And I don't need a American rat's shadow to tell me that.

[ferret]

Wrong continent.

Absolutely. Even if the weather gets better the winter of financial turmoil will last longer than 6 weeks that is for sure. And I don't need a American rat's shadow to tell me that.

[BrowneIssue]

Rise and shine campers, its Groundhog Day.

Wrong continent.

Go away.

[VectraMan]

I always thought 12:01 was better.