Reply to: Yes it's been a good couple of years

[Bagpuss]

apologies for being slow to catch on, are notts and liverpool due to receive a lot of immigrants ?

Milan.

He was being sarcastic, everyone knows that if a woman offers a man oral sex in Liverpool he does a runner, just the mere mention of the word job

[Bagpuss]

Wrong. The sub-price farce is extending beyond the US housing sector and is already affecting the UK housing market. Banks are no longer able to get their hands on cheap money because liquidity has dried up and inter-bank funding has all but come to a halt... cue Northern Wreck. LIBOR is going up due to this lack of trust between banks. Hence they are unable to offer great deals on mortgages to the same extent they have been doing so over the past several years. This has already seen mortgage approvals come down substantially. Lower mortgage approvals imply less sales, reduced demand and hence falling prices.

Mortgage interest rates are rising even though the BoE is likely to drop the main rate rather than increase it. So there aren't any more great re-mortgage deals out there once all of the current homeowners come out of their low fixed rate deals next year. This next big impact will lead into the final part of the cycle, which is herd mentality, i.e. everyone follows suit and "holds off" on buying, or tries to sell quick, because prices are falling.

In 2015, it will be time to buy again.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love house prices to go up as I have a couple... but you've got to see the truth and not just what you'd like to happen.

There are still people convinced the market will not slump, this is despite interest only loan replayments being more than rental yield on the same property, something that blows the whole demand for housing will keep the market buoyant myth, if this were true how can the above be? Because there is over supply!

The more people continue to ignore the warning signs the worse it will be. I'm seriously thinking of cashing in my chips.

[milanbenes]

apologies for being slow to catch on, are notts and liverpool due to receive a lot of immigrants ?

Milan.

[sasguru]

Plus, no-one is going to bomb them.

Except maybe some blokes form Leeds.

[HarryPearce]

Okay, but what are the likely effects on the UK housing market? Everything else is yadda, yadda, yadda.

Oil prices through the roof, oil supplies disrupted, possible problem with the Suez canal. American economy nosedives closely followed by all others.

Don't buy in Dubai!

Harry

[TheFaQQer]

Also concentrate your buying efforts on cities such as Nottingham and Liverpool due to their well diversified and booming local economies that will not be effected at all by the end of the house price boom.

Plus, no-one is going to bomb them.

[Spartacus]

From the Executive Summary (summarised the USoA are likely to go in, with only a few hours notice, and claim they could take out 10,000 targets simultaeneously)

Okay, but what are the likely effects on the UK housing market? Everything else is yadda, yadda, yadda.

[Spartacus]

so we're boomed then!

You've got it in one. You can't argue with demographics.

Buy now while it's still a buyers' market.

[HarryPearce]

Exec Summary

Executive summary please. Time is money you know.

From the Executive Summary (summarised the USoA are likely to go in, with only a few hours notice, and claim they could take out 10,000 targets simultaeneously)

=======

There is considerable international discussion that the confrontation between Iran and the international community over its nuclear programme may change in character into a major war between Iran and either US or Israel or both in conjunction with allies such as the United Kingdom.
This study uses open source analysis to outline what the military option might involve if it were picked up off the table and put into action. The study demonstrates that an attack can be massive and launched with surprise rather than merely a contingency plan needing months if not years of preparation.

The study considers the potential for US and allied war on Iran and the attitude of key states. The study concludes that the US has made military preparations to destroy Iran’s WMD, nuclear energy, regime, armed forces, state apparatus and economic infrastructure within days if not hours of President George W. Bush giving the order. The US is not publicising the scale of these preparations to deter Iran, tending to make confrontation more likely. The US retains the option of avoiding war, but using its forces as part of an overall strategy of shaping Iran’s actions.

· Any attack is likely to be on a massive multi-front scale but avoiding a ground invasion. Attacks focused on WMD facilities would leave Iran too many retaliatory options, leave President Bush open to the charge of using too little force and leave the regime intact.

· US bombers and long range missiles are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours.

· US ground, air and marine forces already in the Gulf, Iraq, and Afghanistan can devastate Iranian forces, the regime and the state at short notice.

· Some form of low level US and possibly UK military action as well as armed popular resistance appear underway inside the Iranian provinces or ethnic areas of the Azeri, Balujistan, Kurdistan and Khuzestan. Iran was unable to prevent sabotage of its offshore-to-shore crude oil pipelines in 2005.

· Nuclear weapons are ready, but most unlikely, to be used by the US, the UK and Israel. The human, political and environmental effects would be
devastating, while their military value is limited.

· Israel is determined to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons yet has the conventional military capability only to wound Iran’s WMD programmes.

· The attitude of the UK is uncertain, with the Brown government and public opinion opposed psychologically to more war, yet, were Brown to support an attack he would probably carry a vote in Parliament. The UK is adamant that Iran must not acquire the bomb.

· Short and long term human, political and economic consequences of any war require innovative approaches to prevent the crisis becoming war.

[DS23]

so we're boomed then!

[Spartacus]

Also concentrate your buying efforts on cities such as Nottingham and Liverpool due to their well diversified and booming local economies that will not be effected at all by the end of the house price boom.

At least there's someone else other than DimPrawn on this board who knows what they're talking about with respect to the housing market.

Pile in before you miss the boat. You cannot lose with those 20m extra people to house over the next 25 years.

[rootsnall]

Haven't you heard, it's different this time? My advice to anyone thinking about the housing market is to snap up those two bedroom city centre BTL apartments while they are still relatively cheap.

Also concentrate your buying efforts on cities such as Nottingham and Liverpool due to their well diversified and booming local economies that will not be effected at all by the end of the house price boom.

[Spartacus]

Wrong. The sub-price farce is extending beyond the US housing sector and is already affecting the UK housing market. Banks are no longer able to get their hands on cheap money because liquidity has dried up and inter-bank funding has all but come to a halt... cue Northern Wreck.

Haven't you heard, it's different this time? My advice to anyone thinking about the housing market is to snap up those two bedroom city centre BTL apartments while they are still relatively cheap.

[miffy]

i care,

need to do one of three things:

1) duck into a stable contract just before things start to go down hill, ride the titanic as long as possible then choose either option 2 or 3
or
2) duck into permie job (shudder) and sit grumpily working for pittance but knowing i have an income..
or more likely
3) book my round the world ticket and continue back doing backpacking fun (ignoring the fact im too old to be doing this) but still a tan and life experience is far better than depression in a permie role .. and a boss

I care too.

A long stable gig is what I need to find. I would come out in a rash with option 2, so I'd be packing my bags and seeing some more of this world before it's too late.

[ChimpMaster]

Who cares as long as house prices keep rising which they will in Britain until about 2050, bar the odd hiccup.

Wrong. The sub-price farce is extending beyond the US housing sector and is already affecting the UK housing market. Banks are no longer able to get their hands on cheap money because liquidity has dried up and inter-bank funding has all but come to a halt... cue Northern Wreck. LIBOR is going up due to this lack of trust between banks. Hence they are unable to offer great deals on mortgages to the same extent they have been doing so over the past several years. This has already seen mortgage approvals come down substantially. Lower mortgage approvals imply less sales, reduced demand and hence falling prices.

Mortgage interest rates are rising even though the BoE is likely to drop the main rate rather than increase it. So there aren't any more great re-mortgage deals out there once all of the current homeowners come out of their low fixed rate deals next year. This next big impact will lead into the final part of the cycle, which is herd mentality, i.e. everyone follows suit and "holds off" on buying, or tries to sell quick, because prices are falling.

In 2015, it will be time to buy again.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love house prices to go up as I have a couple... but you've got to see the truth and not just what you'd like to happen.