Reply to: Sterling vs. Euro

[Joe Black]

How's it going?, Not too bad, certainly work wise.

Still waiting to see what happens with the case I started though. After getting some legal opinion they decided to take it up and are now awaiting an official response. Will be interesting to see what that is...

Been watching the old GBP myself the last few months, but holding off. If it drops some more I might think of buying in.

What side you should be on? I'm presuming you're refering to the 'great divide' here. Are they going to starting building a wall?

[Rantor]

How's it going Joe?

I was assuming sterling is heading downwards but I've not got the other accounts in place yet. Would be nice if it firmed up a bit this week but I have NFI what will happen.

Things are gathering pace over here and it seems to be sinking in that this time it really is the start of the end-game. Bloody glad I didn't buy a house last year

A very liberal-mined vlaams chum told me (in all seriousness) that I still had time to decide what side I should be on.

[Joe Black]

I agree with the precariousness of the pound (plus Milan's DYOR!) My cunning plan was to ride out the strong pound/high-interest rate scenario till the end of the year but recent event have made this a dodgy prooposition.

I guess I am concerned more about the timing - changing at 1.44 is bad in comparison to 1.50 but great in comparison to 1.30. I guess if I knew the answer I wouldn't be doing what I do for a living.

Forex is a tricky business to predict, like pretty much everything in the markets. Either you take the long view, for one reason or another, or you hope to profit from short/shortish term changes. In the latter case though you need a constant watch on what's happening.

Given Greenspan's comments today I'm hoping it'll drop a bit more as I've held off buying GBP given the level it previously was.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../greenspan.xml

[Dundeegeorge]

Not if you're a cockroach

There's fallout and then there's fallout...

If it looks like it's snowing, then generally that's very bad news.

allegedly.

[alreadypacked]

I have been saying that Sterling was over priced for years, now it is actually falling I am surprised.

Then I shouldn't be, I am now paid in Sterling just my luck.

[Swiss Tony]

there is no fallout free zone

Right scrap the currency change and invest in a nice concrete bunker.

Start trial runs a la Del Boy and Rodders!

[DS23]

1. and 3. are in the fallout zone...

there is no fallout free zone

[Swiss Tony]

Maltese lira it is then!

[Rantor]

The pound has fallen simply because the markets are betting that we have come to the end of rate rise cycle and the next move is down.
They are right.

Plus they are expecting the ECB o,nterest rate to go up by the end of the year.

@rse, bùggér, bollox - I may have made a wee timing error.

[Swiss Tony]

Strongest Currency’s in the world:

1. The Kuwaiti dinar
2. The Maltese lira
3. The Bahraini dinar

Not sure I would put my money there but they have been the strongest for some time (in terms of exchange rate etc)

Failing that barrels of oil would be a good bet

[sasguru]

The pound has fallen simply because the markets are betting that we have come to the end of rate rise cycle and the next move is down.
They are right.

[mrdonuts]

supported by gold reserves

weren't they sold off on the cheap a few years back?

[Rantor]

The Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese Yen are good bets. The pound looks very precarious to me. Its been high for a long time, but I think the Bank of England's move into the mortgage market is not good for its credibility The Bradford & Bingley looks like it might also be taken over by the BOE. You could also try a money market fund. That should protect it.

I agree with the precariousness of the pound (plus Milan's DYOR!) My cunning plan was to ride out the strong pound/high-interest rate scenario till the end of the year but recent event have made this a dodgy prooposition.

I guess I am concerned more about the timing - changing at 1.44 is bad in comparison to 1.50 but great in comparison to 1.30. I guess if I knew the answer I wouldn't be doing what I do for a living.

[BlasterBates]

The Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese Yen are good bets. The pound looks very precarious to me. Its been high for a long time, but I think the Bank of England's move into the mortgage market is not good for its credibility The Bradford & Bingley looks like it might also be taken over by the BOE. The pound is not only supported by gold reserves, but also Northern Rock's property portfolio. You could also try a money market fund. That should protect it.

[milanbenes]

do you own research etc,

in my opinion the Euro is going to become the safe haven for everybody, people holding U$D and buying Euros

or course there is not much safer than CHF

and then AU

good luck.

Milan.