Reply to: New variant might not be any more transmissable

[minestrone]

"Complex Negotiations"

[minestrone]

"complex explanations"

[rogerfederer]

Jayn200 is making a late dash for the COTY2020 award.

The main issue with people like Jayn200 is that there is such a issues with the foundation that the complex explanations needed to condemn the structure and accept a full rebuild is quite lengthy to be bothered with in a forum post.

The genius of covid19 is that it takes two to four weeks to seed. People don't know they are ill for 6 to 13 days and, in half of virus shedding cases, the individuals don't even know they are ill and spreading. That's before we even consider the "super spreaders."

From the international stats in countries that are monitoring this it is being stated that the new variant is seeding now. It will be early to mid January before it is possible to state it is rising much faster than the other variants. In this case, with London and Kent already displaying the result, it is obvious it will be spreading far and wide.

The Spectator is extremely selective in the type of articles it publishes. Overall I have been extremely disappointed with the Daily Mail, Spectator and the like. They had a chance to redeem the stereotypes that they earned, particularly more so from 2016 onward. Publishing without an editorial or other discursive input is really not cool for a subject as serious as covid19. Jayn200 has swallowed this extremely quickly. If they do it, what is to stop others?

Also: why guess? It is obviously spreading throughout the world and the current available forecast and figures support this, even accounting for bias in the test detection methods. If the best minds guess it will spread, that's good enough for me. Covid is covid, the same restrictions work anywhere. The reason it spread so far in London and Kent is all to do with public behavior. It seems much of England has all but given up.

[Old Greg]

They are lower per 100K population than during the first wave. Mainly due to better treatment I guess.

Other metrics worth looking at are hospital bed days, ICU bed days (no. of admissions x length of stay) and average length of stay for admissions. We may see that as mortality decreases, length of stay increases, as those that would have died have prolonged inpatient and ICU stays.

[Old Greg]

We need the Official thread for tomorrow

Do the needfuls. But no bullying Simon please.

[NotAllThere]

This tulip reminds me articles written in September along the lines - "so what if cases go up, the hospitalisations and deaths are low!"

They are lower per 100K population than during the first wave. Mainly due to better treatment I guess.

[AtW]

Jayn200 is making a late dash for the COTY2020 award.

We need the Official thread for tomorrow

[Old Greg]

New Covid variant linked to higher viral load in the blood | Coronavirus | The Guardian

Nobody seems to give a tulip about Stanford’s stats professor

Jayn200 is making a late dash for the COTY2020 award.

[AtW]

“ The hypothesis that the fast-spreading UK variant of the Covid-19 virus has a transmission advantage has been bolstered by an analysis that suggests it is linked to higher loads of the virus in the blood.”

New Covid variant linked to higher viral load in the blood | Coronavirus | The Guardian

Nobody seems to give a tulip about Stanford’s stats professor

[Old Greg]

We'd have to ask his accountant for that

Use Cell G12.

Excel, not Darren Upton.

[Old Greg]

I resent any accusation that Simon Dolan received less than an Ivy League education.

He majored in climate, election and pandemic studies summa cum laude.

[AtW]

I resent any accusation that Simon Dolan received less than an Ivy League education.

We'd have to ask his accountant for that

[jamesbrown]

What does Simon Dolan say?

I resent any accusation that Simon Dolan received less than an Ivy League education.

[Old Greg]

I guess Stanford professor was wrong

What does Simon Dolan say?

[AtW]

I guess Stanford professor was wrong