Reply to: BOOM: House price rise fastest for 4 years, according to Halifax index

[rogerfederer]

I like the prices are not going up, they have been propped up and will be going down opinion piece.

Prices are up, get used to the new normal.

They aren't. When you look at a historical 'average UK house price' chart, consider that in the last 9 months the cheaper end of the market has been substantially down-sized. If the transaction ledger shows house sales being higher than average price it's because more middle to high priced houses are selling - that is to say, houses that have more features and are the target of the middle classes are now being sold.

Think about it. If you vastly reduce the number of houses being sold then suddenly the average price has increased. Go look at volume of transactions for the lats nine months. If banks were to stop low to middle priced houses selling then the remaining transactions would have an average price of £850,000 per sale, but that doesn't mean the average UK house is actually worth that price! It just means more houses in that price bracket are being bought because those subject to current banking policy are unable to buy. This scenario is what you are now seeing, as FTBs and those without well paying professional jobs are limited in what they can now afford and cannot go up the ladder. Those with low deposits or insecure work won't be buying now: therefore average prices appear artificially higher overall.

[AtW]

House prices are not rising in the overall sense. The article mentions the rate of increase, specifically, but we need to remember that this is not the entire market.

First time buyers and those with bad credit, who are relied on to prop up the market, are generally unable to buy a place now without a much larger deposit than was previously the base requirement.

What you are seeing is the average price increase because liquidity of those cheaper transactions being removed from the market. Therefore the average price increases, because only more expensive housing is being bought now, presumably by those English residents who are tempted by the stamp duty holiday. Housing stock in the lower to medium priced end is not shifting. There are almost no interest only or 5% mortgages remaining. The 10% mortgages have been swiftly removed too.

The stamp duty holiday is artificially helping the middle ground to appear to have increased in price, but this will give way soon come spring. Who in their right mind would pay over the odds for a house now? Everybody I know is sealing the hatches and saving like mad. A few couples have even sold their expensive house and have moved near or even in with their parents for a while, despite being solvent, as they are postponing their house purchase until after winter.

Spoken like a true guru!

[_V_]

House prices are not rising in the overall sense. The article mentions the rate of increase, specifically, but we need to remember that this is not the entire market.

First time buyers and those with bad credit, who are relied on to prop up the market, are generally unable to buy a place now without a much larger deposit than was previously the base requirement.

What you are seeing is the average price increase because liquidity of those cheaper transactions being removed from the market. Therefore the average price increases, because only more expensive housing is being bought now, presumably by those English residents who are tempted by the stamp duty holiday. Housing stock in the lower to medium priced end is not shifting. There are almost no interest only or 5% mortgages remaining. The 10% mortgages have been swiftly removed too.

The stamp duty holiday is artificially helping the middle ground to appear to have increased in price, but this will give way soon come spring. Who in their right mind would pay over the odds for a house now? Everybody I know is sealing the hatches and saving like mad. A few couples have even sold their expensive house and have moved near or even in with their parents for a while, despite being solvent, as they are postponing their house purchase until after winter.

I like the prices are not going up, they have been propped up and will be going down opinion piece.

Prices are up, get used to the new normal.

[rogerfederer]

House prices are not rising in the overall sense. The article mentions the rate of increase, specifically, but we need to remember that this is not the entire market.

First time buyers and those with bad credit, who are relied on to prop up the market, are generally unable to buy a place now without a much larger deposit than was previously the base requirement.

What you are seeing is the average price increase because liquidity of those cheaper transactions being removed from the market. Therefore the average price increases, because only more expensive housing is being bought now, presumably by those English residents who are tempted by the stamp duty holiday. Housing stock in the lower to medium priced end is not shifting. There are almost no interest only or 5% mortgages remaining. The 10% mortgages have been swiftly removed too.

The stamp duty holiday is artificially helping the middle ground to appear to have increased in price, but this will give way soon come spring. Who in their right mind would pay over the odds for a house now? Everybody I know is sealing the hatches and saving like mad. A few couples have even sold their expensive house and have moved near or even in with their parents for a while, despite being solvent, as they are postponing their house purchase until after winter.

[ChimpMaster]

The market has certainly been rocked by its temporary withdrawal. Is it not reasonable to expect the same in reverse?

Continuous extension only hurts the treasury in lost tax receipts thereby hurting everyone. A great fraud is laid bare before us, deliberate weakening of the currency, which only hurts the poor who already have been in the ring for 11 rounds.

A Great fraud you say... remind you of another far right narcissist by any chance?




BTW SLDT tax receipts are up since the cut earlier this year. Funny that isn't it. You can actually stimulate an economy through tax cuts

[scooterscot]

So you don't have a pension?

Yes, but I manage it myself now in that I select the stocks. 40% in cash at the moment split across three currencies. The remainder in stock & Euro crypto ETF's. No metals.

[_V_]

Don't take this the wrong way... but you're holding two of the most inflated asset classes.

Actually three, I own a good chunk of BTC too.

I know it's great isn't it? To the moon!

[SueEllen]

Don't take this the wrong way... but you're holding two of the most inflated asset classes.

So you don't have a pension?

[scooterscot]

Quite glad I own a lot of property and stocks. Cash is trash as they say.

Don't take this the wrong way... but you're holding two of the most inflated asset classes.

[scooterscot]

Someone buying a house for £500k now, is saving £15k in SLDT. Hardly going to rock the market if they have to pay that in the future.

The market has certainly been rocked by its temporary withdrawal. Is it not reasonable to expect the same in reverse?

Continuous extension only hurts the treasury in lost tax receipts thereby hurting everyone. A great fraud is laid bare before us, deliberate weakening of the currency, which only hurts the poor who already have been in the ring for 11 rounds.

[ChimpMaster]

Quite glad I own a lot of property and stocks. Cash is trash as they say.

UK stocks are trash.

Haven't you heard? The FTSE100 will be at 4,500 by the end of November

I'll bet £250k on that.

Actually, I won't.

[_V_]

Quite glad I own a lot of property and stocks. Cash is trash as they say.

[ChimpMaster]

Reinstating stamp duty next Spring will be interesting..

Someone buying a house for £500k now, is saving £15k in SLDT. Hardly going to rock the market if they have to pay that in the future.

Besides, lots of noise being made about the SLDT cut becoming permanent, because it helps FTBs the most.

I would rather that prices fall to more reasonable levels. Surveyors are down-valuing properties in a lot of areas already, by 10%+ in many cases. A 20% fall would be nice if it didn't result in carnage on the wider economy.

[AtW]

New taxes are going to make McDonnell feel inadequate

[jamesbrown]

Reinstating stamp duty next Spring will be interesting..

Unless they extend, the real deadline is more like now (or soon) as stamp duty is paid on completion.