Reply to: Horse Race Betting

[EnBaignantAvecPierre]

I'm on the bog

[Lance]

So, I see Simon has broken his losing streak after 42 losing tips.

About time too I just made back the losses from the losing streak.

I downloaded his tips archive (up to Oct 16) into Excel and derived a few stats, for a £1 level stake:

Tips 5676
Profit £1,304.51
Profit/Tip £0.23
Wins 771 (14%)

Not bad, but the raw numbers hide a trend. The graph slopes upwards consistently until about a year ago, when the cumulative return for a £1 stake peaked at £1360, since then the return has actually declined steadily, including a streak of 50 consecutive losers from 12 to 27 June this year.

Here's the profit by year

2013 £38 (from start of the service in November)
2014 £569.65
2015 £303.27
2016 £388.14
2017 £8.45


Hmmmmm ... £100 per horse would have netted a reasonable income 2014-2016, this year (to date) not so much.

Past performance is not a good indicator of future performance.
The conclusion I reached a year or so ago was that to make a living would become very time consuming (and if Simon's form dropped totally I'd have nowhere to go as I know f*** all about neddies). As a hobby it's OK but when the bookies won't let you place sensible bets, and I can't be arsed switching between multiple accounts, there's only Betfair left available.
Of course Betfair opens up many other options for hedging, and you're betting against the public rather than professionals.
I know an odds setter for a well known high street brand, and he makes quite a bit of extra coin using Betfair and surprisingly that's encouraged by his employer

[pjclarke]

So, I see Simon has broken his losing streak after 42 losing tips. I downloaded his tips archive (up to Oct 16) into Excel and derived a few stats, for a £1 level stake:

Tips 5676
Profit £1,304.51
Profit/Tip £0.23
Wins 771 (14%)

Not bad, but the raw numbers hide a trend. The graph slopes upwards consistently until about a year ago, when the cumulative return for a £1 stake peaked at £1360, since then the return has actually declined steadily, including a streak of 50 consecutive losers from 12 to 27 June this year.

Here's the profit by year

2013 £38 (from start of the service in November)
2014 £569.65
2015 £303.27
2016 £388.14
2017 £8.45


Hmmmmm ... £100 per horse would have netted a reasonable income 2014-2016, this year (to date) not so much.

[pjclarke]

Another four losers yesterday. Are we sure Simon is not a bot run by William Hill ;-)

[Lance]

I was about to post similar but you beat me to it.

OP - I'd be pretty much AMAZED if any bookie had blocked you or restricted you based on bets placed on Simon's Tips during 2017, or to put it another way, I smell tulipe in your original post.

October hasn't been very good. I've gone from £400 up to £50 down in just under 2 weeks.

Totesport were letting me put £20 per horse 3 weeks ago.
This week it's about £1.50 per horse.

They block based on betting patterns not necessarily on whether you are winning or losing. I'm not sure how they track it but I have an email from Coral a couple of years ago. They closed my account, I'd only lost to them, but their trading department decided they didn't want any more of my money.

[TestMangler]

If you'd started on 8th October and placed £100 on each of SImon's tips, you'd be £1,700 down by now. In fact he has had 20 consecutive losers, and is minus 7 units for October as a whole. It's a long term game, sure but a bit volatile for an alternative pension ....

I was about to post similar but you beat me to it. If you'd started on the first of Oct you'd be 7 betting units down. Fair play to Simon and his tips, you'd have been 60 odd betting units up in Sept, but if you look at the last 12 months, you have staked a hell of a lot of money and been up around a month's invoice for the year.

OP - I'd be pretty much AMAZED if any bookie had blocked you or restricted you based on bets placed on Simon's Tips during 2017, or to put it another way, I smell tulipe in your original post.

[pjclarke]

Anyone on here do much horse race betting?

I've been following this tipster for a few years now, on and off https://simonstips.com/

The biggest problem I have is getting the bookies to take the money. At one stage Ladbrokes wouldn't let me stake more than 93p on a horse. Paddy Power closed me down and refunded all the money left in the account.

I was trying to get to £100 per horse and quit contracting (increasing the stake based on the winnings), but at around £40 per horse all the online bookies limited me so much it became hugely time-consuming.

If you'd started on 8th October and placed £100 on each of SImon's tips, you'd be £1,700 down by now. In fact he has had 20 consecutive losers, and is minus 7 units for October as a whole. It's a long term game, sure but a bit volatile for an alternative pension ....

[TestMangler]

Worse than that. The bookies have started blocking me as well. 8 days in. I've made a bit.

Your guy was actually doing OK up to midweek, but he's hit a run of about 13 or 14 losers on the bounce.

[barrydidit]

So, in the last week, you'd have staked around £3.4K and be a couple of hundred up.

Even Psychocandy gets more than that a week (assuming two nights and a Sunday overtime).

[Lance]

So, in the last week, you'd have staked around £3.4K and be a couple of hundred up.

Even Psychocandy gets more than that a week (assuming two nights and a Sunday overtime).

Worse than that. The bookies have started blocking me as well. 8 days in. I've made a bit.

[TestMangler]

So, in the last week, you'd have staked around £3.4K and be a couple of hundred up.

Even Psychocandy gets more than that a week (assuming two nights and a Sunday overtime).

[Lance]

Have you done all the sign ups and the like with Profit Accumulator. I found their matching software quite good for taking the hassle out.

no. I'll have a look though. Thanks.

[MarillionFan]

I'm using Betfair now. On the Exchange the odds aren't as good though, but there's an almost limitless number of people willing to lose their cash

I did consider having multiple accounts with each bookie but that came back to the 'so time-consuming to manage I'd be better off working' problem.
Maybe I should learn to script and automate it.

Have you done all the sign ups and the like with Profit Accumulator. I found their matching software quite good for taking the hassle out.

[TestMangler]

you said that before the 8/1 win at 19:00

yeah, just seen it. Had them all on today

[Lance]

If you followed the tips he gave today, your bookie will start lifting your restrictions

you said that before the 8/1 win at 19:00