Reply to: Civil war breaks out in the Tory Party

[BlasterBates]

And what do you think might happen to those Brexit voters when they think Brexit is less of "a done deal"?

Stick with Labour?

They'll vote UKIP, split the Conservative vote and let in a Labour landslide.



A lot of traditional Labour voting UKIP supporters didn't vote UKIP because they're passionate about leaving the EU, they just felt "shat" on and New Labour was Tory light, they're switching to Corbyn because he'll raise the minimum wage make Unions strong again etc etc. and all that other leftwing "cr*p". The passionate UKIP Brexiteers will desert the Tories and vote UKIP though.

[sasguru]

And what do you think might happen to those Brexit voters when they think Brexit is less of "a done deal"?

Stick with Labour?

There'll be a hard core who vote for the Brexit party whatever.
But if I was Jeremy Corbyn, I would be hoping that there's no election till 2022.
He's cushty now, the party is his, internal opposition will be muted.
All he has to do is play a waiting game till Brexit begins to really bite economically - it's beginning to do so now.
Interesting times ahead

[jamesbrown]

Did you look at the numbers when you forecast an 80 seat Tory majority?
Those UKIP voters who moved to Labour believe Brexit is a done deal.

And what do you think might happen to those Brexit voters when they think Brexit is less of "a done deal"?

Stick with Labour?

[sasguru]

I just look at the numbers, you focus on sentimentality.

Is your argument that the 25% of UKIP voters who moved to Labour were "ant-Brexit"?

.

Did you look at the numbers when you forecast an 80 seat Tory majority?
Those UKIP voters who moved to Labour believe Brexit is a done deal.

[jamesbrown]

jamesbrown seems to be in denial that yesterday's result is an anti-Brexit (or at least an anti-hard-Brexit) vote.
Make no mistake, that's exactly is what it is.
Teresa ignored the 48% and they've bit back.

I just look at the numbers, you focus on sentimentality.

Is your argument that the 25% of UKIP voters who moved to Labour were "ant-Brexit"?

You've simply rejected reality and substituted your own. Other factors assert themselves when the two major parties have a similar stance (to all but those that follow this closely) on Brexit. The other major factors in this case were austerity (push) and tuition fees (pull).

[jamesbrown]

So do Brexit supporters

The biggest problem Brexit has is demographics.

20 year old votes Labour to stop Brexit

And Remainers.

[BlasterBates]

jamesbrown seems to be in denial that yesterday's result is an anti-Brexit (or at least an anti-hard-Brexit) vote.
Make no mistake, that's exactly is what it is.
Teresa ignored the 48% and they've bit back.

Absolutely Remainers overwhelmingly voted for whoever could unseat the Tory, The arguments that Labour has a pro-Brexit manifesto are hollow, as they demonstrated in their campaign they quite clearly don't give a sh*t about Brexit and will do whatever deal they can with the EU.

[sasguru]

So do Brexit supporters

The biggest problem Brexit has is demographics.

20 year old votes Labour to stop Brexit

jamesbrown seems to be in denial that yesterday's result is an anti-Brexit (or at least an anti-hard-Brexit) vote.
Make no mistake, that's exactly is what it is.
Teresa ignored the 48% and they've bit back.

[BlasterBates]

You mean like the EU in the late 1980s and early 1990s? Turds decompose, like everything else.

So do Brexit supporters

The biggest problem Brexit has is demographics.

20 year old votes Labour to stop Brexit

[sasguru]

. What's your explanation for their low turnout in the referendum? .

Like many they thought a Remain vote was a foregone conclusion.
They've learnt from their mistake though.
Although yesterday's result surprised me, it wasn't a complete shock because as a Remainer I know how organised the anti-Tory tactical vote was on on social media.
Lots of students joined the Remainer forums in the latter weeks asking how they could help

[jamesbrown]

I would just add, that the Iraq war also had overwhelming support in parliament, in the Newspapers and amongst the electorate.

You mean like the EU in the late 1980s and early 1990s? Turds decompose, like everything else.

[jamesbrown]

I think that's one of your many misconceptions

They're attune with some of the perceived principles of the EU (international cooperation and hand-holding ), but they aren't really motivated by the supranational bureaucracy, I suggest. What's your explanation for their low turnout in the referendum? It wasn't their lack of awareness, in my view (if anything, kids are more politically engaged, just less motivated to vote). Rather, the differential turnout between these two events was related to factors other than the EU, such as tuition fees and left-wing hand-holding (I mean, who wasn't more left-wing at uni?).

[BlasterBates]

for balance

[BlasterBates]

[sasguru]

The kids aren't that motivated by the EU.

I think that's one of your many misconceptions