If you ignore the last YouGov poll (which could be a face saving neutral adjustment of the undecideds to align to other polls) then the poll of poll trend would take this to circa Con 42 Lab 38 - eyeballing the chart.
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Reply to: New poll shocker ...
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Previously on "New poll shocker ..."
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Interestingly the raw polls are pretty much the same, they show a small Tory lead. Survation are predicting a much higher turnout amongst young people, and I think they actually had a small Labour lead in their poll, which was online and hence more skewed to Labour. The only interesting thing to point out here is that Survation was the only poll that got it right in 2015
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Originally posted by AtW View PostBy that time I'll be retired, probably somewhere else drinking martini on the beach ...n'tvery nice this time of year.
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Originally posted by AtW View PostIt does not feel like Tory Con victory night
It just doesn't.
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And the final Yougov poll
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)
Here are the Conservative leads of Labour by Polling company
BMG: +13
ICM: +12
ComRes: +10
Panelbase: +8
Opinium: +7
TNS: +5
YouGov: +7
Survation: +1
Ipsos Mori: awaiting
(Source : Brian Elects Twitter page)
This is a victory for the power of the press. Rich press barons have easily created this result, as you have to be honest, Theresa May has absolutely not done this on her own. Her campaign has been shambolic and without substance. The great unwashed have been told how to vote through propaganda. The public don't want to know policies it seems.
I don't know where we'll go from here. One can only hope that the 2015 'Shy Tory' phenomenon is not repeated in 2017.
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Originally posted by AtW View PostThis is the final Survation poll
CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5
UK poll - Survation: Cons 41.3%, Lab 40.4%
DOOMED!!!
ICM+12 (Con lead)
ComRes+10
Panelbase+8
YouGov+7 (they bottled it and assigned all the DKs )
Kantar+5
Survation+1
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Originally posted by AtW View PostThis is the final Survation poll
CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5
UK poll - Survation: Cons 41.3%, Lab 40.4%
DOOMED!!!
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New poll shocker ...
This is the final Survation poll
CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5
UK poll - Survation: Cons 41.3%, Lab 40.4%
DOOMED!!!Tags: None
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