New poll shocker ...

[PurpleGorilla]

If you ignore the last YouGov poll (which could be a face saving neutral adjustment of the undecideds to align to other polls) then the poll of poll trend would take this to circa Con 42 Lab 38 - eyeballing the chart.

[BlasterBates]

Interestingly the raw polls are pretty much the same, they show a small Tory lead. Survation are predicting a much higher turnout amongst young people, and I think they actually had a small Labour lead in their poll, which was online and hence more skewed to Labour. The only interesting thing to point out here is that Survation was the only poll that got it right in 2015

[sasguru]

And in 2022 it will be a Labour landslide.

That was Corbyns plan all along.

[milanbenes]

FTFY

lol

Milan.

[ctdctd]

And in 2022 it will be a Labour landslide.

By that time I'll be retired, probably somewhere else serving martini on the beach ...

FTFY

[jamesbrown]

By that time I'll be retired, probably somewhere else drinking martini on the beach ...

The Isle of Wight isn't very nice this time of year.

[AtW]

It's going to be a sizeable Tory win...

And in 2022 it will be a Labour landslide.

By that time I'll be retired, probably somewhere else drinking martini on the beach ...

[jamesbrown]

It does not feel like Tory Con victory night

It just doesn't.

I don't want it either (not a big majority at least), but I'm just looking at the evidence, especially the evidence from the ground (Labour, Tory and Lib Dem canvassing), and it tells a really consistent story. Labour are up in vote share since 2015, as the small parties are getting squeezed, but the Tories are up more (UKIP-->Tory, Green, Lib Dem -->Labour). Also, the Labour vote is concentrated, geographically (very bad for seats). See here, for example. Labour candidates are really despondent in northern marginals that, until recently, had a significant UKIP vote share. It's going to be a sizeable Tory win...

[AtW]

Yeah, but you saw all the other ones from today, right?

It does not feel like Tory Con victory night

It just doesn't.

[chopper]

And the final Yougov poll

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

Here are the Conservative leads of Labour by Polling company

BMG: +13
ICM: +12
ComRes: +10
Panelbase: +8
Opinium: +7
TNS: +5
YouGov: +7
Survation: +1
Ipsos Mori: awaiting

(Source : Brian Elects Twitter page)

This is a victory for the power of the press. Rich press barons have easily created this result, as you have to be honest, Theresa May has absolutely not done this on her own. Her campaign has been shambolic and without substance. The great unwashed have been told how to vote through propaganda. The public don't want to know policies it seems.

I don't know where we'll go from here. One can only hope that the 2015 'Shy Tory' phenomenon is not repeated in 2017.

[jamesbrown]

This is the final Survation poll

CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5

UK poll - Survation: Cons 41.3%, Lab 40.4%

DOOMED!!!

Yeah, but you saw all the other ones from today, right?

ICM+12 (Con lead)
ComRes+10
Panelbase+8
YouGov+7 (they bottled it and assigned all the DKs )
Kantar+5
Survation+1

[Paddy]

This is the final Survation poll

CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5

UK poll - Survation: Cons 41.3%, Lab 40.4%

DOOMED!!!

It's the people's will. Chaos means chaos.

[AtW]

This is the final Survation poll

CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5

UK poll - Survation: Cons 41.3%, Lab 40.4%

DOOMED!!!