Poll showing surge in support for Scottish independence was a "sampling error"

[Lambert Simnel]

It would have been more accurate for the title of the article to say that the variation from previous polls was within sampling error. Saying it was "caused" by sampling error may lead to the (incorrect) inference that the sampling was done incorrectly.

Curtice's comments are, of course, entirely sensible. It's just the journalist who wrote the piece and the sub-ed responsible for the article heading likely don't understand statistical terminology.

[chopper]

who knows, maybe brexit results were a "sampling error" as well

Polls always have a sampling error, because of the number of "don't knows" and the number of people who simply lie about their answer (e.g. people who voted Tory but said something else to the pollers, people who voted to leave but said remain to the pollers, people who voted Trump but said "wibble wibble" to pollers). And then you have wierdos (yes, I was going to vote remain, but I saw a straight banana in Aldi on my way to the polling station and changed my mind). Then you have the errors of extrapolating the limited samples (say 1000 or 2000 people) into the population at large. I think a typical poll's margin of error would be around 2-3% - certainly not enough for Sturgeon to stake her political future on.

However, an actual referendum or election has zero sampling error.

Nice try though.

[NigelJK]

Yeah it did always look a little on the low side for the Brexit option.

[PeterSon55]

who knows, maybe brexit results were a "sampling error" as well

[scooterscot]

Lets hope Scoots can get his Fourth Reich passport quickly as it will be his only way into the EU.

I can feel you anger. It makes you strong. Late the hate flow through.

[GB9]

'Sampling error' behind BMG poll putting Scottish independence support on 49% - Business Insider

Lets hope Scoots can get his Fourth Reich passport quickly as it will be his only way into the EU.

[chopper]

'Sampling error' behind BMG poll putting Scottish independence support on 49% - Business Insider