Reply to: Another gloomy Brexit forecast. If you're a Remnant.

[shaunbhoy]

Individual countries giving up their identify? That's like telling Scots they're no longer Scottish after 300 years of union in Britain. It is not going to happen like that. If anything the UK demonstrates a political union works with opposing political points of view. Scottish politics are polar opposite from the rUK. The argument presented is one for the UK to break up just as much as it is the EU. And we use a single currency to boot. If the UK wants free trade with the EU we may as well peg the £ to the € at some level like the Swiss did for many years.

Europe is at peace. Perhaps one of the most peaceful continents on the planet today. America is awash with guns and violence, South America (Brazil going down the toilet with violence, Mexico at civil war), president in the Philippines killing civilians left right and centre.

Yes we din't ask for Junker, but neither did we ask for the House of Lords. They who determine how our daily lives should unfold.

The consideration of the world's population has been notability absent in these discussions. The world's population in 75 was quite different. As the world grows EU countries become smaller. All the more reason for the EU to assert itself. Globalisation is not a choice, it exists and is not going to go away. The voices of tech giants carry more weight than some governments.

Reform is needed. That reform must include the UK's influence IMO. We can't stand back and watch decades of work unfold. Stronger together, divided we fall.

Ok own up. Who has hacked scooter's account?

[PurpleGorilla]

Another gloomy Brexit forecast. If you're a Remnant.

Individual countries giving up their identify? That's like telling Scots they're no longer Scottish after 300 years of union in Britain. It is not going to happen like that. If anything the UK demonstrates a political union works with opposing political points of view. Scottish politics are polar opposite from the rUK. The argument presented is one for the UK to break up just as much as it is the EU. And we use a single currency to boot. If the UK wants free trade with the EU we may as well peg the £ to the € at some level like the Swiss did for many years.

Europe is at peace. Perhaps one of the most peaceful continents on the planet today. America is awash with guns and violence, South America (Brazil going down the toilet with violence, Mexico at civil war), president in the Philippines killing civilians left right and centre.

Yes we din't ask for Junker, but neither did we ask for the House of Lords. They who determine how our daily lives should unfold.

The consideration of the world's population has been notability absent in these discussions. The world's population in 75 was quite different. As the world grows EU countries become smaller. All the more reason for the EU to assert itself. Globalisation is not a choice, it exists and is not going to go away. The voices of tech giants carry more weight than some governments.

Reform is needed. That reform must include the UK's influence IMO. We can't stand back and watch decades of work unfold. Stronger together, divided we fall.

Thought provoking. Thanks for a much better contribution than the Churchill rant from a day or two.

Union in the UK was made by force not through the ballot box. The union is sufficiently tight with fiscal and political union that it has stood the test of time. The nation state has been significantly diluted. The nation is the UK not the constituent parts. Well certainly when it comes to external presentation on the world stage.

Devolution makes the possibility of independence even more likely. It is possible. The closer the integration/assimilation the harder it is to break free.

For the EU to be a success it has to go all the way. But it needs to be explicit about that and take people with them. There is too much us and them with the EU. Like the plutocrats are only interested in big business and easy foreign travel. Maybe it's due to the diversity of cultures, but the balance is way off. The whole project seems to be dialling down to the lowest common denominator. Where is the vision, hope, collectivism?

[scooterscot]

more stuff.

Individual countries giving up their identify? That's like telling Scots they're no longer Scottish after 300 years of union in Britain. It is not going to happen like that. If anything the UK demonstrates a political union works with opposing political points of view. Scottish politics are polar opposite from the rUK. The argument presented is one for the UK to break up just as much as it is the EU. And we use a single currency to boot. If the UK wants free trade with the EU we may as well peg the £ to the € at some level like the Swiss did for many years.

Europe is at peace. Perhaps one of the most peaceful continents on the planet today. America is awash with guns and violence, South America (Brazil going down the toilet with violence, Mexico at civil war), president in the Philippines killing civilians left right and centre.

Yes we din't ask for Junker, but neither did we ask for the House of Lords. They who determine how our daily lives should unfold.

The consideration of the world's population has been notability absent in these discussions. The world's population in 75 was quite different. As the world grows EU countries become smaller. All the more reason for the EU to assert itself. Globalisation is not a choice, it exists and is not going to go away. The voices of tech giants carry more weight than some governments.

Reform is needed. That reform must include the UK's influence IMO. We can't stand back and watch decades of work unfold. Stronger together, divided we fall.

[chopper]

Stuff

Good post, thought provoking stuff.

However, the route to peace in Europe doesn't have to be a rapid move towards full political integration with the ultimate goal of a single country called Europe. It doesn't have to be the European Union - in its current guise it can only breed resentment which leads to the rise of right wing and populist politics, xenophobia and fascism.

The EU has risen too fast, and largely without the popular consent. The thing we voted for in the 1975 European Communities referendum is not the thing we have ended up today. The common market has become a government on its own and is seen as a gravy train which we (British people) cannot keep in check. EU democracy is an illusion, yes we can vote in the European Parliament elections but not a single British vote at the European elections went for the current ruling coalition. The public didn't ask for Juncker. We actually opposed him rather vocally, which explains his position towards us. OK, we didn't ask for Prime Minister Mayhem either, but at least we knew who she was. There is no *visible* benefit to the people of the UK from being in the EU. (There are, of course, invisible benefits. But plenty of downsides too.)

Yes, the EU has been blamed for many things that are not the EU's fault, and the real problem with 'globalisation' is that UK jobs have left the UK and headed East, more than the people (EU or non-EU) have come here to fill British vacancies.

I don't relish the collapse of the European Union, and I'm fairly sure that a Europewide referendum would not lead to the end of it. I support close economic integration, free trade, free movement of workers - a "common market". I don't support political integration with the ultimate goal of being railroaded into a single country called Europe. The very fact the leaving the EU could potentially cause issues with us setting WTO schedules tells you we've gone too far. I don't support the gravy train it has become, with far too many politicians riding on it with no interest in reform.

You talk about Churchill, but he would be spinning in his grave at what the EU has become.

No reform? No EU.

[PurpleGorilla]

Bad? Certainly do.. and we've already pulled into that station.

Well based on the number of pro Trump comments, the unleashed xenophobia in relation to the Leave vote and indeed the attacks on 'immigrants' after the vote. Intolerance to our neighbours near and far grows with each day.

We bravely stood up to fascism previously and now many seem to revel in it. They mock snowlflake lefties, they relish the collapse of the EU, think Trump is wonderful, love Farage and UKIP (cypto-fascists many of them including Nuttall), support the insane right-wingers in Parliament taking us over Beachy Head with the exit from the EU.

Despite the vile front-page of the Daily Mail showing of all people Churchill smiling at Big Ben last week, Churchill was in favour of a strong united Europe. He knew what could happen if it wasn't.

I loath all of you out there, many who crawl over to the CIF pages, who preach that you are patriotic and love your country, that get all misty eyed about Churchill and 'how we won the war' (we didn't it was the Allies, including ourselves).

Churchill would despise you as well and see you for the Quislings you are. You are the friends of the far-right and you are the enemies within.

You describe the what, but fail to ask the WHY.

[scooterscot]

OK. Enough already.

Do we even know what "Good" or "Bad" looks like?

Bad? Certainly do.. and we've already pulled into that station.

Well based on the number of pro Trump comments, the unleashed xenophobia in relation to the Leave vote and indeed the attacks on 'immigrants' after the vote. Intolerance to our neighbours near and far grows with each day.

We bravely stood up to fascism previously and now many seem to revel in it. They mock snowlflake lefties, they relish the collapse of the EU, think Trump is wonderful, love Farage and UKIP (cypto-fascists many of them including Nuttall), support the insane right-wingers in Parliament taking us over Beachy Head with the exit from the EU.

Despite the vile front-page of the Daily Mail showing of all people Churchill smiling at Big Ben last week, Churchill was in favour of a strong united Europe. He knew what could happen if it wasn't.

I loath all of you out there, many who crawl over to the CIF pages, who preach that you are patriotic and love your country, that get all misty eyed about Churchill and 'how we won the war' (we didn't it was the Allies, including ourselves).

Churchill would despise you as well and see you for the Quislings you are. You are the friends of the far-right and you are the enemies within.

[WTFH]

Andrew Neil's Twitter feed ( www.twitter.com/afneil )



https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...-december-2016

Ah, so a 22% increase in imports from last December, and imports exceeding exports to the tune of £6billion.

Remember that if the government chooses to put a tariff on imports from the EU, it's not the supplier that suffers, but the UK consumer.

[DimPrawn]

Surely we can figure out a set of "KPI's" to monitor ( exchange rate, employment rate, GDP, FDI, consumer spending, imports / exports ) over the coming months so we can actually get real, accurate view of what is really happening, rather than having to rely on bias news sources, written by vested-interest groups with an axe to grind.
.

Forget GDP, exchange rates or any of that bollox.

How many BTL will we get, how big is the flat screen telly in the living room and how many weeks in Benidorm will we have over the next few years?

Sorted.

[chopper]

Source?

Andrew Neil's Twitter feed ( www.twitter.com/afneil )

Also what was the value (and % change) for imports and the amount of foreign debt?

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...-december-2016

[WTFH]

Another gloomy Brexit forecast. If you're a Remnant.

In Q4, British exports to non-EU countries rose by 17.3%

Doooooom.

Exports to the EU rose by 3.5%

Doooooom.

Construction grew by 1.8% in December

Doooooom.

Industrial output grew by 1.1% in December

Doooooom.

Manufacturing grew by 1.2% in Q4

Doooooom.


And as for all the bolleaux about tariff free access to the EU? In 2015, the UK's net contribution was £8.5bn. The total value of UK exports to the EU was £223.3bn. That equates to the government paying a 3.8% tariff to the European Union on behalf of our exporters.

Source?
Also what was the value (and % change) for imports and the amount of foreign debt?

[chopper]

In Q4, British exports to non-EU countries rose by 17.3%

Doooooom.

Exports to the EU rose by 3.5%

Doooooom.

Construction grew by 1.8% in December

Doooooom.

Industrial output grew by 1.1% in December

Doooooom.

Manufacturing grew by 1.2% in Q4

Doooooom.


And as for all the bolleaux about tariff free access to the EU? In 2015, the UK's net contribution was £8.5bn. The total value of UK exports to the EU was £223.3bn. That equates to the government paying a 3.8% tariff to the European Union on behalf of our exporters.

[GB9]

OK. Enough already.

This is going nowhere. One side pulls up a fake news article predicting one outcome, the other side pulls out another fake news article predicting the opposite.

We've got at least two years of this ahead of us .... and frankly it's getting tedious. When the negotiations actually start we are going to get a huge deluge of even more fake-news arguing that the negotiations are close to collapse, that they are proceeding really well, that nothing is agreed and that everything is close to agreement.

Do we even know what "Good" or "Bad" looks like?

Surely we can figure out a set of "KPI's" to monitor ( exchange rate, employment rate, GDP, FDI, consumer spending, imports / exports ) over the coming months so we can actually get real, accurate view of what is really happening, rather than having to rely on bias news sources, written by vested-interest groups with an axe to grind.

Obviously I am too busy to do such a thing but I am sure SASGuru could knock up a simple website over the weekend. Or if that's too complicated for an Excel spreadsheet.

Don't be bringing common sense to this argument!

[tomtomagain]

OK. Enough already.

This is going nowhere. One side pulls up a fake news article predicting one outcome, the other side pulls out another fake news article predicting the opposite.

We've got at least two years of this ahead of us .... and frankly it's getting tedious. When the negotiations actually start we are going to get a huge deluge of even more fake-news arguing that the negotiations are close to collapse, that they are proceeding really well, that nothing is agreed and that everything is close to agreement.

Do we even know what "Good" or "Bad" looks like?

Surely we can figure out a set of "KPI's" to monitor ( exchange rate, employment rate, GDP, FDI, consumer spending, imports / exports ) over the coming months so we can actually get real, accurate view of what is really happening, rather than having to rely on bias news sources, written by vested-interest groups with an axe to grind.

Obviously I am too busy to do such a thing but I am sure SASGuru could knock up a simple website over the weekend. Or if that's too complicated for an Excel spreadsheet.

[northernladyuk]

New film out this weekend. Muppets vs Unicorns.

You lot star.

I do admire your spirit.

[GB9]

QED.

New film out this weekend. Muppets vs Unicorns.

You lot star.