Reply to: Murky Nissan deal

[shaunbhoy]

I'm set up for hard Brexit now and can see the opportunities for personal gain.

Pinning your hopes on the Village Idiot market remaining unscathed then?

[sasguru]

The trouble is you might go bankrupt trying to get to the promised land.

Well maybe not bankrupt but there will be an enormous amount of pain associated with transforming an economy for Hard Brexit, and the UK starts the process with a huge debt.

I think Hard Brexit will fail because the UK isn't sufficiently wealthy and everyone is ill informed and ill prepared for the consequences.

I agree with all that.
As in Greece there will be many losers and a few winners.
I'm set up for hard Brexit now and can see the opportunities for personal gain.

[BlasterBates]

Right, so why the false dichotomy from continuity Remain between "hard" and "soft"? There's no "soft" option according to everyone that matters. It's a contradiction in terms. We either go to Brexit via purgatory or we go there directly. To pursue the now tiring analogy, the only argument concerns whether Brexit is ultimately heaven or hell. I would've thought that continuity Remain would prefer that the dire warnings emerge more quickly, so that we can all reconsider? This is the absurd contradiction at the heart of continuity Remain. They're deeply worried about being both right and wrong and they don't yet see that Brexit is going to happen, regardless of whether it goes via purgatory. It seems to me that everyone should be arguing for what is currently referred to as "hard Brexit" (i.e. Brexit) so that we can then argue pragmatically about trade arrangements outside the CU and SM, avoiding all this nonsense about the shade of wallpaper in purgatory.

The trouble is you might go bankrupt trying to get to the promised land.

Well maybe not bankrupt but there will be an enormous amount of pain associated with transforming an economy for Hard Brexit, and the UK starts the process with a huge debt.

I think Hard Brexit will fail because the UK isn't sufficiently wealthy and everyone is ill informed and ill prepared for the consequences.

Peter Hitchens and Ambrose Pritchard both in favour of Hard Brexit have both predicted that the UK will end up stuck half out of the EU, because no-one has prepared and have realistic expectations about how to go about it.

Think of it as like tackling Everest with some light clothing, a thermos flask of coffee and an expectation that it will be a bit like climbing Ben Nevis.

[shaunbhoy]

See, even sas agrees

And, if we ever wanted proof that even those existing in the lower intellectual quartile have seen the light, there it is!!

[jamesbrown]

Transitional arrangement?

See, even sas agrees

[jamesbrown]

Indeed "purgatory" is a very apt description.

Right, so why the false dichotomy from continuity Remain between "hard" and "soft"? There's no "soft" option according to everyone that matters. It's a contradiction in terms. We either go to Brexit via purgatory or we go there directly. To pursue the now tiring analogy, the only argument concerns whether Brexit is ultimately heaven or hell. I would've thought that continuity Remain would prefer that the dire warnings emerge more quickly, so that we can all reconsider? This is the absurd contradiction at the heart of continuity Remain. They're deeply worried about being both right and wrong and they don't yet see that Brexit is going to happen, regardless of whether it goes via purgatory. It seems to me that everyone should be arguing for what is currently referred to as "hard Brexit" (i.e. Brexit) so that we can then argue pragmatically about trade arrangements outside the CU and SM, avoiding all this nonsense about the shade of wallpaper in purgatory.

[FarmerPalmer]

We import more cars from the EU than we export to the EU.

Tariffs work both ways. ... so the government takes more in import tariffs than the car makers pay in export tariffs.

It is still not legal to subsidise companies under WTO deals.

However you could use the money to reduce business rates, remove employer NI etc for car manufacturers to encourage investment ... now that may be legal.

caveat: I am just an engineer and not an economist or lawyer, so I am probably wrong.

[sasguru]

Transitional arrangement?

Waste of time. Hard Brexit now. That way we'll answer the question once and for all - can it work?
And if it doesn't who cares if some Northerners have to queue for food banks?
It was their own choice after all.

[BlasterBates]

I'm not totally against a transitional deal, in principle, but I think it's very likely to end as described, i.e. some fugly purgatory that no one will support. In that case, none of the pressures within the Tory party, or outside, have gone away, so what comes afterwards would be much more hardline. I'd still assume that the Council will be pragmatic (unlike the Commission), and there was an article in the WSJ yesterday alluding to that, but we'll see. TBH, I'm rather bored of all the speculation now and would be happy to revisit this in a couple of years

Indeed "purgatory" is a very apt description.

Brexit will result in purgatory

[GB9]

We know you're a moron, so its not surprising that you think some quarterly growth figure indicates anything about the relative overall strength of the UK and German economies.
Not to mention that the good UK growth figures are while we are still in the EU.

I may well be a moron but at least an economically literate one. You on the other hand........

[jamesbrown]

indeed....

so let me post a link on which we can both agree::

A Transitional deal will thwart Brexit

I'm not totally against a transitional deal, in principle, but I think it's very likely to end as described, i.e. some fugly purgatory that no one will support. In that case, none of the pressures within the Tory party, or outside, have gone away, so what comes afterwards would be much more hardline. I'd still assume that the Council will be pragmatic (unlike the Commission), and there was an article in the WSJ yesterday alluding to that, but we'll see. TBH, I'm rather bored of all the speculation now and would be happy to revisit this in a couple of years

[BlasterBates]

Yes, I think it's well-established by now that we have polar opposite views on the likely outcome, largely because we view the short- and long-term financial implications and political reality very differently. A couple of years, and we'll see who was closer. I can hardly wait

In the mean time, you should get out more. There's a whole forum here outside of Brexit threads

indeed....

so let me post a link on which we can both agree::

A Transitional deal will thwart Brexit

[jamesbrown]

The transitional deal will be very like EEA, and it is going to be a very long transition. There is no credible alternative. The UK needs to get its debts down and build up a credible export industry of some kind. Even Switzerland who were completely outside the EU for a long time caved in in the end, and they have no debt, don't rely on inward investment and have strong indigenous export industries. Their agriculture which is still outside the EU is a complete disaster.

Yes, I think it's well-established by now that we have polar opposite views on the likely outcome, largely because we view the short- and long-term financial implications and political reality very differently. A couple of years, and we'll see who was closer. I can hardly wait

In the mean time, you should get out more. There's a whole forum here outside of Brexit threads

[shaunbhoy]

Stupid is as stupid says or does.

That ought to be your epitaph.
Anyway, how was rehab? Have techniques altered much since your last trip?

[sasguru]

We know you feel the need to insult people who don't agree with you, it doesn't make you look big or clever. Sometimes your facts & suggestions are quite interesting but then I go its just Sas being a twit I can't be bothered so if you are trying to educate us then you are failing because of your poor technique. I'm sure people have explained this to you before.

Stupid is as stupid says or does.
Don't blame the messenger.
And quite frankly most of you are beyond educating.
Which is why, now that I've stashed a bit of loot abroad, I want hard Brexit now.
Pain is the best teacher :-)