Reply to: EU accepts inevitable informal negotiations before Article 50

[GB9]

No, what?

They vote leave. Or they get rid of Juncker. Although that's going to happen soon anyway.

[Mordac]

The "informal negotiations" are not going to be easy because the European Parliament could veto it.

Theresa May urged to start Brexit talks with EU after summer | Politics | The Guardian



So any "informal" agreement achieved before Brexit is questionable. The political dyamics of 26 different countries will determine what happens, and it's probably going to take a long long time.

Brexit could take up to six years to complete, says Philip Hammond | Politics | The Guardian

In theory (and quite possibly in practice), the entire leadership of the EU could change in 6 years. So what might be discussed or even negotiated in Year 1 may no longer be anywhere near the table come Year 6.

[GB9]

...and when the MEP's toss out the UK on WTO terms what is this referendum going to be about.

It won't be us having a referendum!

Look at it another way: Merkel and May plus others spend a week around the cooking pot thrashing out an informal deal. For whatever reason it gets rejected by the EU as a whole. How do you think that will go down exactly?

It would take all 27 to vote us out. And if we get WTO at 10%, so does the rest of the EU. Except those that want to break away.

Sounds like another case of EU politicians voting for Christmas.

[BlasterBates]

And then the people get peed off and have a referendum because they don't feel listened to. And we know what happens next, don't we?

...and when the MEP's toss out the UK on WTO terms what is this referendum going to be about.

[AtW]

And then the people get peed off and have a referendum because they don't feel listened to. And we know what happens next, don't we?

No, what?

[GB9]

The MEP's are democratically elected by their constituents and do as they see fit for their constituents, regardless of what "informal" deal is done.

Democracy in action

And then the people get peed off and have a referendum because they don't feel listened to. And we know what happens next, don't we?

[BlasterBates]

So now they accept that there will be informal talks but they won't count.

What the EU Commission doesn't get is that a raft of politicians feel they are to blame for Brexit. If the Commission had let the UK speak with Heads of State rather than Junckers fledglings then we might well be staying. They aren't going to help themselves by trying to overrule informal talks.

The MEP's are democratically elected by their constituents and do as they see fit for their constituents, regardless of what "informal" deal is done.

Democracy in action

[AtW]

Why 6 years? Because they want to be voted in again in 2020 or 2021 to complete it LOL

[GB9]

The "informal negotiations" are not going to be easy because the European Parliament could veto it.

Theresa May urged to start Brexit talks with EU after summer | Politics | The Guardian



So any "informal" agreement achieved before Brexit is questionable. The political dyamics of 26 different countries will determine what happens, and it's probably going to take a long long time.

Brexit could take up to six years to complete, says Philip Hammond | Politics | The Guardian

So now they accept that there will be informal talks but they won't count.

What the EU Commission doesn't get is that a raft of politicians feel they are to blame for Brexit. If the Commission had let the UK speak with Heads of State rather than Junckers fledglings then we might well be staying. They aren't going to help themselves by trying to overrule informal talks.

[BlasterBates]

The "informal negotiations" are not going to be easy because the European Parliament could veto it.

Theresa May urged to start Brexit talks with EU after summer | Politics | The Guardian

Schulz underlined this point by warning that MEPs could veto the final Brexit agreement, meaning the UK could be forced out of the EU with only its World Trade Organisation membership to fall back on.

So any "informal" agreement achieved before Brexit is questionable. The political dyamics of 26 different countries will determine what happens, and it's probably going to take a long long time.

Brexit could take up to six years to complete, says Philip Hammond | Politics | The Guardian

[CretinWatcher]

I know you are desperate for everything to fail. But really you need to give it 12 - 18 months to start seeing the real impact.

1. I'd be overjoyed if everything succeeded. But it's not going to happen given the economic base of twin deficits, debt and inadequate industrial production. We've got nothing to sell. FDI is going to fall for certain.

2. Your second statement above is correct. The real impact, which I am sure will be negative, will be seen in that time period.

[tomtomagain]

The market agrees with me. Hence the pound falling. That is the market's assessment of future UK prospects.

Money talks etc.

"The market" is not some all-seeing god. It is over-reactive, short-sighted and prone to panic. That's why "the market" was completely caught out by the exit vote.

I know you are desperate for everything to fail. But really you need to give it 12 - 18 months to start seeing the real impact.

[CretinWatcher]

We may well see some significant changes but absolutely nobody can tell whether they are going to be positive, negative or neutral.

Absolutely incorrect. I can tell you categorically now that given the UK's current state, the changes are going to be mainly negative.

The market agrees with me. Hence the pound falling. That is the market's assessment of future UK prospects.

Money talks etc.

[tomtomagain]

Hasn't really started yet though has it? The UK is still in the EU and will be for quite a while longer. Its not until the UK does leave the EU that you might find some rather larger changes depending upon what is agreed upon, or not agreed upon.

Nope. It certainly has not started. Nothing has changed and everything has changed.

We may well see some significant changes but absolutely nobody can tell whether they are going to be positive, negative or neutral.

[CretinWatcher]

University of Lego?

Some fink like that, innit.