Reply to: Angela Merkel warning as she urges UK to stay in EU

[tomtomagain]

For the sake of balance though we should have a positive scenario:

Following a UK Brexit there is a sharp fall in World stock-markets and depreciation of the pound.

However this is arrested by the joint-conference held by Mrs Merkel, Holland, Junker and the new British PM, Mr Johnson agreeing to work together to achieve an positive outcome for all the European people.

The EU, recognising the democratic outcome of the referendum, is shaken but uses the result to push through reforms necessary to unshackle European industry, leading in the medium term a dramatic job creation throughout the EU. Which in turn reduces the appeal of far-right parties across the continent.

With increased European employment opportunities migration into the UK naturally falls and the introduction of "points-based" system gives the UK public the assurance that the UK authorities regained control of the country's borders.

Realising there are no winners in a trade-war both sides rapidly conclude a series of deals allowing trade to continue without any particular consequence. Tourism is an "export" so everyone is still able to go on holiday.

The EU/UK amicable split is seen throughout the world as a beacon of hope for those living in repressive regimes. That democracy does work and is mankind's best invention. That co-operation, rather than force, is the best way for everybody.

With booming economy's on both sides of the channel Europe and the UK enter a new Golden Age of peace and prosperity for all.

[LondonManc]

Not at all. Dodgy asked for a scenario .... so I made one up.

My serious point, if I had one, is that while all these European leaders are currently lining up to tell us why BREXIT would be terrible for the UK in the front of their minds is that BREXIT would be a disaster for the EU too.

If a BREXIT was handled badly then the EU would come under a lot of pressure.

And when all the pieces are in flux .... nobody knows what the outcome will be.

Therein lies a key point - Europe needs the UK far more than the UK needs Europe.

[tomtomagain]

Yeah, the bit where I said 'whole debate' hopefully covered that....

Indeed it did.

[TestMangler]

Yup. From both sides.

Yeah, the bit where I said 'whole debate' hopefully covered that....

[tomtomagain]

That is probably the first thing I've seen written about this whole debate that is true

Yup. From both sides.

[TestMangler]

<snip>.... nobody knows what the outcome will be.

That is probably the first thing I've seen written about this whole debate that is true

[tomtomagain]

You can tell all that from a Brexit?
Do you work for the OECD?

Not at all. Dodgy asked for a scenario .... so I made one up.

My serious point, if I had one, is that while all these European leaders are currently lining up to tell us why BREXIT would be terrible for the UK in the front of their minds is that BREXIT would be a disaster for the EU too.

If a BREXIT was handled badly then the EU would come under a lot of pressure.

And when all the pieces are in flux .... nobody knows what the outcome will be.

[TestMangler]

Great Jackanory story....

You expected something different ?

I don't know if you've noticed this but most of the Bremain side (both on CUK and in frontline politics) were vocal 'no' supporters during the Scottish referendum and were constantly throwing out claims about border guards, a complete bar on cross border trade and work, pensions would be lost, people with medical conditions would die in the street, everyone in England would stop drinking Scotch, the sky would fall in, Russia would invade and England would sit back and watch etc etc etc.

Basically, they're all a bunch of lying c**ts. They were then and they still are.

[Chuck]

You can tell all that from a Brexit?
Do you work for the OECD?

Nah, he forgot to mention the bit where we all get cancer and dinosaurs rise up and eat us all.

[DimPrawn]

OK. Brexit happens.

Has a severe effect on the UK economy. Leading to a reduction in the UK's willingness to contribute to the defensive of Europe ( read Germany for that ).

Germany has to re-arm. She doesn't want to for "historical reasons", but feeling undefended against a resurgent Russia has no choice.

German re-armament puts the bejeezus up France and Poland and most of the other smaller European countries.

France et al increase their own defence spending as a result. Leading to an arms race within mainland Europe.

Increasing defence spending depresses social economic activity in mainland Europe - resources are spent on guns not hospitals and schools.

Europe's expansive & generous welfare states come under increasing pressure ( they cannot afford a decent army and welfare state ). Cuts in the welfare state cause a very unhappy European population who have grown used to the easy life.

German taxpayers get fed up with paying for everyone else. And especially picking up 90% of the UK's "missing" contribution to the EU budget.

Someone lights the fuse ....

Great Jackanory story....

[LondonManc]

OK. Brexit happens.

Has a severe effect on the UK economy. Leading to a reduction in the UK's willingness to contribute to the defensive of Europe ( read Germany for that ).

Germany has to re-arm. She doesn't want to for "historical reasons", but feeling undefended against a resurgent Russia has no choice.

German re-armament puts the bejeezus up France and Poland and most of the other smaller European countries.

France et al increase their own defence spending as a result. Leading to an arms race within mainland Europe.

Increasing defence spending depresses social economic activity in mainland Europe - resources are spent on guns not hospitals and schools.

Europe's expansive & generous welfare states come under increasing pressure ( they cannot afford a decent army and welfare state ). Cuts in the welfare state cause a very unhappy European population who have grown used to the easy life.

German taxpayers get fed up with paying for everyone else. And especially picking up 90% of the UK's "missing" contribution to the EU budget.

Someone lights the fuse ....

You can tell all that from a Brexit?
Do you work for the OECD?

[DodgyAgent]

.

Someone lights the fuse ....

And a cheque is sent to Putin

[tomtomagain]

Explain a circumstance under which war would break out in Europe between nation states.

We can already see the rise of the far right so civil war under the existing regime is far more likely

OK. Brexit happens.

Has a severe effect on the UK economy. Leading to a reduction in the UK's willingness to contribute to the defensive of Europe ( read Germany for that ).

Germany has to re-arm. She doesn't want to for "historical reasons", but feeling undefended against a resurgent Russia has no choice.

German re-armament puts the bejeezus up France and Poland and most of the other smaller European countries.

France et al increase their own defence spending as a result. Leading to an arms race within mainland Europe.

Increasing defence spending depresses social economic activity in mainland Europe - resources are spent on guns not hospitals and schools.

Europe's expansive & generous welfare states come under increasing pressure ( they cannot afford a decent army and welfare state ). Cuts in the welfare state cause a very unhappy European population who have grown used to the easy life.

German taxpayers get fed up with paying for everyone else. And especially picking up 90% of the UK's "missing" contribution to the EU budget.

Someone lights the fuse ....

[tomtomagain]

How is it Germany controls house prices and we cannot?

A lot more space and a declining population?

Also culturally scarred from the hyper-inflation of the 20's & 30's that puts a cap on their willingness to borrow and their banks willingness to lend.

Leading them to long-term rent rather then want to buy. An Englishman's home is his castle don't you know.

And finally those that do buy have a tendency to live in their house for a long, long time.

[rl4engc]

As I said, in the circumstance that the EU disintegrates, I would see an increased risk.

I'd see a decreased risk. Wars start when there's a breakdown in democracy, which is what will happen if all the EU members continue to fall in line like blind rats behind Pied Piper Juncker and his mates.