Reply to: Possible scenario if "leave" wins

[DimPrawn]

The irony is that this boom, as in the US, has been driven by cheap credit, not by a strong UK economy within the EU (). What has led to this cheap credit? Sclerotic economies, such as the Eurozone, exporting their deflation and the consequences in terms of UK monetary policy. It's illusory.

Yep most car sales are based on leasing, where you put down $50 and rent the car on almost free credit.

As long as the EU keeps NIRP and swapping banks losses for printed money, it will all be fine.

Is that a helicopter I can hear overhead?

[Old Greg]

Cater Allen fix their rates for a 24h period, based on a fix from the end of the previous day. I grant they may add a very large spread for 23rd, but I've got better than spot from Cater Allen several times in the past (i.e they've paid me to exchange ). As I say, I don't think Sterling will move much further. Polls have been all over the place, but there has been a steady appreciation since late Feb/Boris. Cutting through the polls, the Bremainers have had a much better campaign so far (although I see a few more policy ideas from Brexit now), but Brexit would need a massive lead to overcome the status quo. Ain't gonna happen.

Transferwise are good. 0.5% commission and you can fix just before a market event and then decide to exchange or not. I wonder if they will pull a plug on this on voting day.

[jamesbrown]

I don't think you'd get 23rd rate on 24th if there is a very big movement in markets, which it will be in event of Brexit.

Markets pricing in win for the Leave campaign, the economy is in the tulip and Govt wants GBP to depreciate further.

Exchanging regularly is good idea, but this is a known in advance seismic event...

Cater Allen fix their rates for a 24h period, based on a fix from the end of the previous day. I grant they may add a very large spread for 23rd, but I've got better than spot from Cater Allen several times in the past (i.e they've paid me to exchange ). As I say, I don't think Sterling will move much further. Polls have been all over the place, but there has been a steady appreciation since late Feb/Boris. Cutting through the polls, the Bremainers have had a much better campaign so far (although I see a few more policy ideas from Brexit now), but Brexit would need a massive lead to overcome the status quo. Ain't gonna happen.

[AtW]

Alternatively, if you're with Cater Allen, you should be able to get the 23rd rate (fixed on 22nd) until the morning of 24th, and the result will be known via the fx markets pretty early on 23rd unless it's close (banks etc. are spending real money on modelling based on exit polls).

I don't think you'd get 23rd rate on 24th if there is a very big movement in markets, which it will be in event of Brexit.

Markets pricing in win for the Leave campaign, the economy is in the tulip and Govt wants GBP to depreciate further.

Exchanging regularly is good idea, but this is a known in advance seismic event...

[jamesbrown]

Nevermind flat, it's not for sale anyway, I live in it!

I've got big decision to make - change USD/EUR just before referendum being sure it's a win for the sane, or assume the worst and keep the dosh until after the vote

I can't see a great deal more movement now TBH. Also, the downside on Cable is way more than the upside (if you were exchanging pounds, it might be different). I don't spend too much time thinking about it - the best strategy is to change it regularly (dollar cost averaging) unless you're a currency speculator. Alternatively, if you're with Cater Allen, you should be able to get the 23rd rate (fixed on 22nd) until the morning of 24th, and the result will be known via the fx markets pretty early on 23rd unless it's close (banks etc. are spending real money on modelling based on exit polls).

[AtW]

Gidiot says your flat will be worth 18% less

Nevermind flat, it's not for sale anyway, I live in it!

I've got big decision to make - change USD/EUR just before referendum being sure it's a win for the sane, or assume the worst and keep the dosh until after the vote

[jamesbrown]

Just like everything else.

Apart from diamonds. They are forever...

<channels DimPrawn> And gold.

[jamesbrown]

btw, I am actually personally benefitting from sterling dropping against EUR/USD and in the event of Brexit I'd personally gain a lot, BUT, I don't want to end up having a barrel full of £1000000 notes with Farage's face printed on them whilst queuing for my portion of hot soup, done that already, no more!

Gidiot says your flat will be worth 18% less

[AtW]

It's illusory.

Just like everything else.

Apart from diamonds. They are forever...

[SueEllen]

Best year in a decade for British car manufacturing as exports reach record high - SMMT

Record exports for UK carmakers as demand from Europe grows - FT.com

U.K. Production | Export Demand Raises April Output 16.4% | Industry content from WardsAuto

BREXIT!!!!

btw, I am actually personally benefitting from sterling dropping against EUR/USD and in the event of Brexit I'd personally gain a lot, BUT, I don't want to end up having a barrel full of £1000000 notes with Farage's face printed on them whilst queuing for my portion of hot soup, done that already, no more!

Don't worry Farage won't be King and that's the only living person allowed on bank notes and coins.

That reminds me if the Queen dies it will be expensive replacing all the coins.

[jamesbrown]

Best year in a decade for British car manufacturing as exports reach record high - SMMT

Record exports for UK carmakers as demand from Europe grows - FT.com

U.K. Production | Export Demand Raises April Output 16.4% | Industry content from WardsAuto

BREXIT!!!!

btw, I am actually personally benefitting from sterling dropping against EUR/USD and in the event of Brexit I'd personally gain a lot, BUT, I don't want to end up having a barrel full of £1000000 notes with Farage's face printed on them whilst queuing for my portion of hot soup.

The irony is that this boom, as in the US, has been driven by cheap credit, not by a strong UK economy within the EU (). What has led to this cheap credit? Sclerotic economies, such as the Eurozone, exporting their deflation and the consequences in terms of UK monetary policy. It's illusory.

[AtW]

Best year in a decade for British car manufacturing as exports reach record high - SMMT

Record exports for UK carmakers as demand from Europe grows - FT.com

U.K. Production | Export Demand Raises April Output 16.4% | Industry content from WardsAuto

BREXIT!!!!

btw, I am actually personally benefitting from sterling dropping against EUR/USD and in the event of Brexit I'd personally gain a lot, BUT, I don't want to end up having a barrel full of £1000000 notes with Farage's face printed on them whilst queuing for my portion of hot soup, done that already, no more!

[minestrone]

Surplus of what, cretins who think they know a lot about UK exports into EU? That may well be.

If UK car manufacturers are forced to move to mainland EU (which they would for sure), then exports would drop massively because cars are high ticket items that contribute a lot to total UK exports, UK will actually have to import new cars - Jaguars from India, Range Rovers from Poland.

Yes, that is exactly what manufacturing is, building cars.

"you work in software? can you do me a website?"

I'm sure there are plenty of graphs online where you can view the UK manufacturing sectors decline over the last 20 years. To say the EU is critical to UK manufacturing is like a smoker saying it keeps the weight down.

[AtW]

You think they can just up sticks after investing billions in factories and trained workers here?
370 acre site, £1.5bn investment. It ain't going nowhere mate.

After Brexit £1.5 bln will be roughly equal to a small Polish jacket potato (with shape that contravenes EU regulations) with a cheap milan beans filling.

So you right, those huge factories are not going anywhere - they will be used as warehouses for potatoes and beans.

HTH

[DimPrawn]

Surplus of what, cretins who think they know a lot about UK exports into EU? That may well be.

If UK car manufacturers are forced to move to mainland EU (which they would for sure), then exports would drop massively because cars are high ticket items that contribute a lot to total UK exports, UK will actually have to import new cars - Jaguars from India, Range Rovers from Poland.

You think they can just up sticks after investing billions in factories and trained workers here?

It's not like they can say "hey they voted out, lets move the factory tomorrow, then on Monday we will be back in business as if nothing happened."

Have a read through this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_..._Manufacturing

370 acre site, £1.5bn investment.

It ain't going nowhere mate.