Reply to: Buy-to-Let DOOM

[jamesbrown]

No, I can be.

I've spent several years in mortgage analytics and what you might assume from reading and hearing things on the news doesn't always alugn with what has really happened.

In this context, I'm not sure your experience of mortgage analytics counts for much (at least, your argument is incongruent). This is about the macroeconomics of housing supply/demand and behaviour. If a policy substantially boosts demand (5% deposits) without boosting supply, then prices will rise. Funding for Lending was the start of this process, but HTB accelerated it. You can argue about the details of how cheap money has filtered into particular asset classes (e.g. your mortgage analytics), but the big picture is credit conditions and policies that have eased those conditions, whether directly by HMG or indirectly via the BoE.

[AtW]

If the people are getting the cash then they have passed the lending criteria.

Nothing can possibly go wrong if they passed it

[unemployed]

Do you think that banks just sit there and gives a big sack of cash to anyone that asks them?

why do you think they give a toss who they lend to ?? if they don`t pay up they just take the property back.
more than likely any losses would be taken out of the deposit.
while government policy ensures rises the banks can`t lose .

This whole sorry saga is set up for short term gain , there is no long term plan that`s someone else`s problem.

[bobspud]

So you don`t think government props increase house prices ?? you don`t think available credit increases prices ??

you don`t think low interest rates increase prices ??


your post is laughable Did george email you personally with this wonderful data ??

Do you think that banks just sit there and gives a big sack of cash to anyone that asks them? If the people are getting the cash then they have passed the lending criteria. That doesn't mean that the house they are buying is worth what they blindly waved at the estate agent but thats the game. I was watching Homes under the Hammer yesterday and some wally ended up paying 70K for a proper dump. First time at an auction and not a clue what it was they bought or how much renovation money would be involved...

If you are sat on the sidelines competing with idiots like that you either end up renting or you buy your way out of the situation and thats when the house prices go up...

[unemployed]

I've worked with the relevant data whereas you've almost certainly made assumptions.

So you don`t think government props increase house prices ?? you don`t think available credit increases prices ??

you don`t think low interest rates increase prices ??


your post is laughable Did george email you personally with this wonderful data ??

[GB9]

You can't be serious? The origins of the recent bubble were in bank lending (i.e. the FLS before the transition to business lending), but HTB was a critical part of this. It extended the market (and hence demand) to those with a 5% deposit who, until HTB, had zero hope of home ownership, as the FLS was mainly reaching those with a large deposit. You can take a view either way about the morality of that, but I think the impacts on demand (and hence prices) are pretty indisputable. It's no coincidence that the market (and wider economy) took off shortly afterwards and the share prices of BDEV and similar quadrupled within a couple of years.

No, I can be.

I've spent several years in mortgage analytics and what you might assume from reading and hearing things on the news doesn't always alugn with what has really happened.

[GB9]

I thought I was a thick chunt

Jesus weepers

I've worked with the relevant data whereas you've almost certainly made assumptions.

[unemployed]

He may well be an idiot but HTB didn't stoke anything. And he isn't reversing anything as prices are unlikely to fall. Just reddressing the balance along Conservative policy.

I thought I was a thick chunt

Jesus weepers

[jamesbrown]

He may well be an idiot but HTB didn't stoke anything. And he isn't reversing anything as prices are unlikely to fall. Just reddressing the balance along Conservative policy.

You can't be serious? The origins of the recent bubble were in bank lending (i.e. the FLS before the transition to business lending), but HTB was a critical part of this. It extended the market (and hence demand) to those with a 5% deposit who, until HTB, had zero hope of home ownership, as the FLS was mainly reaching those with a large deposit. You can take a view either way about the morality of that, but I think the impacts on demand (and hence prices) are pretty indisputable. It's no coincidence that the market (and wider economy) took off shortly afterwards and the share prices of BDEV and similar quadrupled within a couple of years.

[GB9]

I wouldn't credit them with any strategic thinking on housing policy, including in terms of the SDLT base (afterall, as I recall, SLDT is down following the recent reforms). No, this is more about reversing incompetence with further incompetence. Gidiot stoked the market with HTB1,...,N. Following a popular backlash on lack of affordability that has further undermined his "we're all in this together" mantra (even among those that have profited), they've decided they need to reverse the bubble a bit, both directly and through the thinnest of veils between HMG and the BoE. Gidiot is the most clueless and tactical of political dolts. He wouldn't know strategy if it were rolled up with his dividend vouchers from Osborne & Little and smacked about the head with it.

He may well be an idiot but HTB didn't stoke anything. And he isn't reversing anything as prices are unlikely to fall. Just reddressing the balance along Conservative policy.

[The_Equalizer]

It's pretty much a complete showstopper in many cases at the £1.5m+ level. Remember, with SLDT you need to pay the whole amount on completion to HMRC: you'd can't add this to your lovely low-interest mortgage.

Should anyone shed any tears over this house price range really? So it knocks 15% off that figure. Where's the harm?

[jamesbrown]

In trying to rape the golden goose, the Tories have instead managed to slay it.

I wouldn't credit them with any strategic thinking on housing policy, including in terms of the SDLT base (afterall, as I recall, SLDT is down following the recent reforms). No, this is more about reversing incompetence with further incompetence. Gidiot stoked the market with HTB1,...,N. Following a popular backlash on lack of affordability that has further undermined his "we're all in this together" mantra (even among those that have profited), they've decided they need to reverse the bubble a bit, both directly and through the thinnest of veils between HMG and the BoE. Gidiot is the most clueless and tactical of political dolts. He wouldn't know strategy if it were rolled up with his dividend vouchers from Osborne & Little and smacked about the head with it.

[GB9]

In trying to rape the golden goose, the Tories have instead managed to slay it.

Keep prices down.

It's not Blair and Brown trying to buy off the middle classes any more, which is all the housing boom was meant to do.

[ChimpMaster]

Stamp duty under Tories - up to 15% FFS, this is worse than VAT - at least VAT is paid only once on purchase, yet here it's a massive transaction tax (which Tories are opposed to protect City mates), 6 sales of one expensive house and nearly whole value it taken by the Treasury in tax, FFS!

The Tories have killed the housing market at the top end, and almost BTL at all levels. And no matter what they say, they are not out to help first time buyers or anyone; they are simply out to grab as much tax as possible from anyone they can - including the disabled if they had gotten away with it.

15% SLDT is a humungous blow to anyone who wants to upgrade to a bigger or better located home. It's pretty much a complete showstopper in many cases at the £1.5m+ level. Remember, with SLDT you need to pay the whole amount on completion to HMRC: you'd can't add this to your lovely low-interest mortgage.

In trying to rape the golden goose, the Tories have instead managed to slay it.

[unemployed]

It's designed to get people onto the property ladder. Not into rent.

still not going to help much

1 bedroom flat for sale in Hill House, Portsmouth Road, Esher, Surrey, KT10, KT10