Reply to: Buy-to-let DOOM

[AtW]

It has very little to do with migrants

That bit always made me - poor immigrants who come to this country often share rooms (2-3 people in single room), I was lucky to live in room on my own, later shared house with my good friend and only was able to afford to buy this year really. Taxes are so high that even local people with very good jobs don't have many chances to buy, large scale immigration mainly creates problem for unskilled jobs market and that's about it.

Ironically Tory Scum policies encourage such unskilled migration with higher minimum wage and higher personal allowance.

[jamesbrown]

Firstly, I don't see a vote for BREXIT. Second if we get it, I don't think the shock will be all that great. Having said that the instability might wobble Germany (deutsche bank) and the derivative bubble goes pop. The 2008 crisis was deflated by huge bail outs. There is still plenty of toxic debt put their which could throw the system. But I do see it as unlikely (HPC). There are just too any migrants.

It has very little to do with migrants, as the property bubble has inflated rapidly over the last 5 years, partly through gov't-backed speculation, and partly from lack of supply, but mainly because of cheap credit. Inward migration is a very long-term demand factor, certainly not responsible for house price growth of 10-20% per year in parts of the SE and London. No, on the contrary, the bubble is likely to burst despite this long-term demand factor. It will only precipitate from a change in credit conditions, and I don't see Brexit as the trigger for that (potentially the opposite). But I agree that it increases pressure on housing and public services in the long-term.

[AtW]

Mate I could pay off my very small mortgage tomorrow if I wanted too. But I get more investing the money than the interest on the mortgage loan.

You dirty spekulant!!!

[PurpleGorilla]

You are a mauve monkey who sits on the same tree. Shake that tree and you'll fall down.

Mate I could pay off my very small mortgage tomorrow if I wanted too. But I get more investing the money than the interest on the mortgage loan.

[AtW]

The BTL tax is a tree shake for the highly leveraged investors to clear off scared, whilst the big boys and corp investors clear up.

You are a mauve monkey who sits on the same tree. Shake that tree and you'll fall down.

[PurpleGorilla]

Do you think big mauve monkeys won't be falling down during this tree shake up?

WTF does that mean?

The BTL tax is a tree shake for the highly leveraged investors to clear off scared, whilst the big boys and corp investors clear up.

[PurpleGorilla]

Buy-to-let DOOM

By what mechanism though? I can only think of one, really, where there's a full-blown Sterling crisis and the Bank is forced to increase the base rate. In practice, I think a cut in rates is more likely. Anyone that is concerned about Sterling probably would've reduced their exposure to UK assets already, and it will be too late following a Brexit, as any correction in Sterling will be swift. On the other hand, if Sterling depreciates significantly, UK property will begin to look cheaper to foreign investors, providing there's a sense of political direction. I know the latter is quite an assumption but, let's face it, Brexit isn't guaranteed to result in any wholesale changes. It's more likely that there would be a period of reflection and planning before we invoke Article 50, despite what Hamface says. During that period, I think we'll be asked to think again (), perhaps with some actual concessions this time.

Firstly, I don't see a vote for BREXIT. Second if we get it, I don't think the shock will be all that great. Having said that the instability might wobble Germany (deutsche bank) and the derivative bubble goes pop. The 2008 crisis was deflated by huge bail outs. There is still plenty of toxic debt put their which could throw the system. But I do see it as unlikely (HPC). There are just too any migrants.

[AtW]

Exactly, a tree shake for the big investors.

Do you think big mauve monkeys won't be falling down during this tree shake up?

[jamesbrown]

Not unless we have BREXIT.

By what mechanism though? I can only think of one, really, where there's a full-blown Sterling crisis and the Bank is forced to increase the base rate. In practice, I think a cut in rates is more likely. Anyone that is concerned about Sterling probably would've reduced their exposure to UK assets already, and it will be too late following a Brexit, as any correction in Sterling will be swift. On the other hand, if Sterling depreciates significantly, UK property will begin to look cheaper to foreign investors, providing there's a sense of political direction. I know the latter is quite an assumption but, let's face it, Brexit isn't guaranteed to result in any wholesale changes. It's more likely that there would be a period of reflection and planning before we invoke Article 50, despite what Hamface says. During that period, I think we'll be asked to think again (), perhaps with some actual concessions this time.

[PurpleGorilla]

But landlords are not being crucified, it's just a move to squeeze the high risk ones. Those who are over leveraged. Those who might risk the stability of the aforementioned house of cards. Longer term landlords will own properties, renters will rent. Why not?

Exactly, a tree shake for the big investors.

[Crossroads]

But landlords are not being crucified, it's just a move to squeeze the high risk ones. Those who are over leveraged. Those who might risk the stability of the aforementioned house of cards. Longer term landlords will own properties, renters will rent. Why not?

[PurpleGorilla]

He's a cretin who can't do basic maths.

[emoji22]

[Crossroads]

Crucify landlords and you will see those who want to rent or cannot buy on the streets, or paying higher rent due to a lower volume of rental stock.

[Crossroads]

Ultimately house prices are not going to crash (really badly) IMHO unless the country is in the toilet. That will take more than Brexit alone (but that could be the start). Will take several other events to truly start a landslide though. Every gubberment, even Komrade knows a country based on service industry is a potential house of cards and are not going to poke at it as it keeps them in a job.

[Crossroads]

Why, it's very helpful to get a lot of posts on here...

Very true. Plus if it drives prices so low I buy another house or two it will be helpful to my kids. Doubt prices will recover in time to fuel a sun kissed early retirement for me tho!