Economic view of BrExit

[VectraMan]

The things economists know. . . and don’t knowÂ*

It is clear that economists’ prognostications have, at best, a mixed record. Not only can economists not reliably tell you what GDP is going to be in two or three years’ time but, as a group, they seem pretty bad at anticipating major developments. Although some economists did foresee the financial crisis, as a whole they did not. Nor did most foresee the emergence of a zero inflation/deflation world.

Although the future is beset with uncertainty, about this issue we do know some things. We know that over recent decades the EU has been a comparative economic failure. We know that unless something really radical happens, it is set to fall sharply in relative economic performance over the decades to come. We know that the EU is set to embark on a course of integration from which we aim to stand aside. We know that inside the EU we do not have full control of our destiny. We know that inside the EU but outside the eurozone we will be marginalised.

I cannot say what all this means in terms of pounds per annum for the UK average household in 15 years’ time. But I can recognise the difference between a situation of opportunity and a pig in a poke.

I like the way you start by saying that not even world-leading economists have been any good at predicting the economy, and then claim that you know with absolute certainty (and in fact all of us know with absolute certainty) the future of the EU's economy.

We don't know any of those "we knows"; it's all speculation and opinion. You have a point about the UK being marginalised in the EU but outside the Euro, but becoming more marginalised outside the EU when all the countries surrounding us are inside the EU is hardly an improvement.

What we do know is that political and economic uncertainty is bad for the economy, and we do know that sudden shocks are bad for the economy. Two things you want to inflict on us.

I thought the Kippers had given up on the economic argument and were keen on telling us the economy doesn't matter and it's all about "sovereignty" - whatever that means.

[AtW]

So why should we believe them this time round?

This time it's different (tm).

[sasguru]

Whether they keep their existing factories or not, it's not likely they or anyone else will make any further investments particularly if tariffs are introduced

[BrilloPad]

No Toyota won't be completely closing its factories, of course not, but it will be sacking loads of workers.

Toyota UK warns of cutbacks if Britain leaves EU | Politics | The Guardian

Toyota threat to quit UK over euro | Business | The Guardian

Toyota threat to quit UK over euro

So why should we believe them this time round?

[BlasterBates]

No Toyota won't be completely closing its factories, of course not, but it will be sacking loads of workers.

Toyota UK warns of cutbacks if Britain leaves EU | Politics | The Guardian

Toyota, one of the biggest manufacturers in Britain, has warned it will be forced to make significant cutbacks if the country votes to leave the EU.

[Flashman]

You don't need an economist to tell you that if Mr Tokoachi of Toyota wants to build a factory in Europe post Brexit he won't build it in Britain

Toyota pledges to stay in UK even if country takes Brexit - FT.com

Toyota pledges to stay in UK even if country takes Brexit

Sometimes you just have to laugh

[sasguru]

You don't need an economist to tell you that if Mr Tokoachi of Toyota wants to build a factory in Europe post Brexit he won't build it in Britain

[BrilloPad]

The things economists know. . . and don’t know 

It is clear that economists’ prognostications have, at best, a mixed record. Not only can economists not reliably tell you what GDP is going to be in two or three years’ time but, as a group, they seem pretty bad at anticipating major developments. Although some economists did foresee the financial crisis, as a whole they did not. Nor did most foresee the emergence of a zero inflation/deflation world.

Although the future is beset with uncertainty, about this issue we do know some things. We know that over recent decades the EU has been a comparative economic failure. We know that unless something really radical happens, it is set to fall sharply in relative economic performance over the decades to come. We know that the EU is set to embark on a course of integration from which we aim to stand aside. We know that inside the EU we do not have full control of our destiny. We know that inside the EU but outside the eurozone we will be marginalised.

I cannot say what all this means in terms of pounds per annum for the UK average household in 15 years’ time. But I can recognise the difference between a situation of opportunity and a pig in a poke.