Reply to: Calling bottom on house price market

[AtW]

I was informed a few days ago that the person dealing with decision on whether to accept my offer for flat or not got into car accident and received head injury ...

New person was appointed - no decision yet

[PurpleGorilla]

What's going to be worthwhile holding? Stocks, oil, gold, farmland, property, shotguns?

All of that, a bit of cash is always handy.

Now, look at our friends and colleagues who are suffering the fallout from oil. You can't grow if you don't have a job, if you don't have income. It's an awful and terrifying position to be in, one that many in your generation have not yet seen.

You gotta make the hay when the sun shines to feed your flock in the winter.

[greenlake]

As always: land

It's the one thing they're not making anymore.

Are you sure about that?

List of artificial islands - Wikipedia

[scooterscot]

What's going to be worthwhile holding? Stocks, oil, gold, farmland, property, shotguns?

Consider this: those with debt in 2008 did very well from the 'crisis'.

Those without jobs didn't fare so well. Now, look at our friends and colleagues who are suffering the fallout from oil. You can't grow if you don't have a job, if you don't have income. It's an awful and terrifying position to be in, one that many in your generation have not yet seen.

As always: land

It's the one thing they're not making anymore.

[ChimpMaster]

Given average joe has mountains of debt and exposure, I will be just dandy.

What's going to be worthwhile holding? Stocks, oil, gold, farmland, property, shotguns?

Consider this: those with debt in 2008 did very well from the 'crisis'.

Those without jobs didn't fare so well. Now, look at our friends and colleagues who are suffering the fallout from oil. You can't grow if you don't have a job, if you don't have income. It's an awful and terrifying position to be in, one that many in your generation have not yet seen.

[PurpleGorilla]

You might think you'll be in a position to gloat, as perhaps other people on the sidelines might be thinking. Perhaps you believe that this is the day you've been waiting for all this time and that you will finally be able to take advantage of cheap assets whilst pointing fingers at those who will inevitably suffer greatly. The truth is far worse than what you might be expecting, and really there is very little you will be able to either prepare or to benefit from it.

Given average joe has mountains of debt and exposure, I will be just dandy.

[ChimpMaster]

Let's see the amount of tulip we get in with this unravelling now happening. I predict masses of lovely tulip.

You might think you'll be in a position to gloat, as perhaps other people on the sidelines might be thinking. Perhaps you believe that this is the day you've been waiting for all this time and that you will finally be able to take advantage of cheap assets whilst pointing fingers at those who will inevitably suffer greatly. The truth is far worse than what you might be expecting, and really there is very little you will be able to either prepare or to benefit from it.

[PurpleGorilla]

Because the Septics didn't "let the economy self-correct in 2008" (which I agree they should have), the UK Government couldn't either. It's as simple as that, and anyone who disputes that is deluding themselves I reckon.

If the UK had tried unilaterally then all the investment money would have flown across the Atlantic like a flock of starlings, and we'd be in a far worse, probably irremediable, pickle even than the one we're in now!

Let's see the amount of tulip we get in with this unravelling now happening. I predict masses of lovely tulip.

[OwlHoot]

The government caused this with their move to flood the economy with cheap money, but that has achieved very little for the average man in the street. Instead, we're all left to suffer a stagnant economy for what could be another 20 years. Like you said, they really should have let the economy self-correct back in 2008; we would have all been far better off now. ...

Because the Septics didn't "let the economy self-correct in 2008" (which I agree they should have), the UK Government couldn't either. It's as simple as that, and anyone who disputes that is deluding themselves I reckon.

If the UK had tried unilaterally then all the investment money would have flown across the Atlantic like a flock of starlings, and we'd be in a far worse, probably irremediable, pickle even than the one we're in now!

[ChimpMaster]

Will be interesting to see the effect these buy to let reforms have.
They should lead to a falling market, but the usual rules of economics dont seem to apply since the early 00s. The market has become so distorted by government manipulation an open door immigration policy and underwriting the market with cheap money.

The market should be left to correct itself but I doubt it will be.

The reforms will cause some investors to sell some of their properties so that they can consolidate and reduce gearing on the overall portfolio. However, this is unlikely to lead to price falls - at best you'll see some price moderation - because of a number reasons.

You're going to see that:
Rates will stay historically low for another 3 - 5 years yet. Mortgage rates have actually fallen around 0.25% in the past 6 months.
Increased immigration.
Greater rental demand.
Higher rents (caused by the Guv move to try and increasing costs on landlords).
Nowhere else for investors to make your cash work for you.

And these factors will keep property as the forerunner for investors.

The government caused this with their move to flood the economy with cheap money, but that has achieved very little for the average man in the street. Instead, we're all left to suffer a stagnant economy for what could be another 20 years. Like you said, they really should have let the economy self-correct back in 2008; we would have all been far better off now.

[DimPrawn]

Damn right. Burn baby-boomers burn.

FTFY

[PurpleGorilla]

The market should be left to correct itself but I doubt it will be.

Damn right. Burn baby burn.

[ZARDOZ]

Will be interesting to see the effect these buy to let reforms have.
They should lead to a falling market, but the usual rules of economics dont seem to apply since the early 00s. The market has become so distorted by government manipulation an open door immigration policy and underwriting the market with cheap money.

The market should be left to correct itself but I doubt it will be.

[DimPrawn]

Houses are getting more expensive and smaller. Makes this chart all the more acute;

I keep saying this, but for the younger generation, the solution to the eye watering rents and eye watering purchase prices of miniscule UK property is to emigrate. Simples.

Australian houses are 3 to 4 times the size for the same £££. Just avoid centre of Sydney, get a public sector job in some nice suburb near one of the big cities. Kick back, enjoy the sunshine and beaches. It's quite doable and speaking to my friends that have escaped the UK, it's the best thing they ever did.

Or save up your £50K deposit for a £500K shoe box here in the freezing sleety rain and shut up.

[OwlHoot]

Houses are getting more expensive and smaller. Makes this chart all the more acute; ...

Would be interesting to see a combined graph of house prices, and house price per unit floor area.

The vertical axes would have to be scaled so the graphs more or less overlapped until, say, the 1980s.