Reply to: Imminent house price crash

[AtW]

Oh God, things must be turning apocalyptic if AtW is back to gloat over an imminent house price crash!

The end is nigh!!!

[jamesbrown]

Where is the talk of interest rate rises coming from - is that just AtW fear-mongering?

In terms of the budget, probably from the OBR forecast, which was raised slightly (although remains tepid). It's probably worth a little less than the paper it isn't written on given the rate forecasts in the last 5 years.

[shaunbhoy]

I'll take 50 quid for the lot, but I want it paid in drachmas.

ftfy

[MarillionFan]

So, the BTL is going to be hit, plus now imminent interest rate increases to follow, so more houses on the market sold by desperate BTLers like MF, innit?

I'll take 50 quid for the lot, but I want it paid in euros.

[Zero Liability]

At the moment, the Fed is due to raise rates some time in the near future (I bet they won't or will only do so by a minuscule amount), and the BoE "hawks" are pushing for a rate rise some time in 2016. Even if they do raise it, I expect it to be very low. If anything, the MMR has taken the wind out of the sails of mortgages in the UK, more so than any interest rate hike would, given that market expectations re: future rate movements can diverge from where central banks hope to set them via sovereign debt purchases.

[d000hg]

Where is the talk of interest rate rises coming from - is that just AtW fear-mongering?

[jamesbrown]

Unless Eurozone melt down or a massive oil spike, I think you are right. There could be other unforeseen events, but generally a trigger i believe is needed to pop it.

Say hello to China.

[PurpleGorilla]

That was my first thought.

Crash predicted since 2000. Low interest rates, increasing availability of credit, immigration and London property being the world default currency (did you really think it was the $?) will keep the Ponzi scheme going. Crash will come - but it will be at least 2020.

Unless Eurozone melt down or a massive oil spike, I think you are right. There could be other unforeseen events, but generally a trigger i believe is needed to pop it.

[BrilloPad]

I thought you were going to tell us you had bought a place, AtW. If you have then the crash is definitely on

That was my first thought.

Crash predicted since 2000. Low interest rates, increasing availability of credit, immigration and London property being the world default currency (did you really think it was the $?) will keep the Ponzi scheme going. Crash will come - but it will be at least 2020.

[OwlHoot]

Don't forget that high end London prices are going to fall anyway as the non-doms exit for pastures new

Ah but if the Chinese stock market is turning to rat tulip, won't the richer sort there redouble their efforts to snap up investment property in the West?

(although arguably they'd be better waiting for the bottom if that is discernable and piling into stocks again.)

[FarmerPalmer]

Don't forget that high end London prices are going to fall anyway as the non-doms exit for pastures new

[administrator]

I thought you were going to tell us you had bought a place, AtW. If you have then the crash is definitely on

[AtW]

Oh God, things must be turning apocalyptic if AtW is back to gloat over an imminent house price crash!

I might buy a house soon. So the crash better hurry up!!!

Nearly 20 years of renting...

[OwlHoot]

Oh God, things must be turning apocalyptic if AtW is back to gloat over an imminent house price crash!

[PurpleGorilla]

Maybe not imminent; but with the Shanghi index tanking, combined with a Grexit, the global picture has some concerns. All of which could result in general fiscal tightening by banks. Restricting demand still further.

We all know its a bubble. And the trigger is at stage 1.