Reply to: Labour Getting Nervous

[SueEllen]

By-elections are used to kick the major parties in the face plus the turn outs are often lower.

In Heywood the turnout in 2010 was 46,125 or 57.5% of those eligible to vote, while this October was it was 28,472 or 36%.

So it looks like people just didn't bother voting. Parties need to get voters to turn out and vote

[Flashman]

Possibly, but both the Conservative and Liberal votes collapsed with the majority going to Ukip. This could mean a lot more seats for ukip than predicted. However, I think the only thing we can say for certain now is that nobody knows what will happen next May.

The Lib Dem vote went to Labour. Any leftie party would do for that bunch of idiots.

Some of the old Labour vote went to UKIP.

Perhaps some people are finally waking up to the fact that Labour and the Conservatives two sides of the same coin.

[alluvial]

UKIP are a bigger threat to Tory votes than they are to Labour.

In Heywood and Middleton, Labour's vote proportion from 2010 marginally increased. The UKIP gain was at the expense of the Tories and LibDems.

"Go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed." (DC)

Possibly, but both the Conservative and Liberal votes collapsed with the majority going to Ukip. This could mean a lot more seats for ukip than predicted. However, I think the only thing we can say for certain now is that nobody knows what will happen next May.

[Doggy Styles]

UKIP are a bigger threat to Tory votes than they are to Labour.

In Heywood and Middleton, Labour's vote proportion from 2010 marginally increased. The UKIP gain was at the expense of the Tories and LibDems.

"Go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed." (DC)

[PurpleGorilla]

Labour Getting Nervous

The guy tuliped his own brother!

[KentPhilip]

Nothing makes me happier than seeing UKIP filtch votes off of Labour up north

[Zero Liability]

Both men are unpopular even within their own hated parties, so good luck to them.

[alluvial]

They're both as unpopular as feck. It could happen due to the mechanics of the FPP system, and if it does, hopefully it'll lead to its abolition.

I was wondering if this could be a fallout of the ukip rise. Not sure what circumstances are needed though.

[Zero Liability]

They're both as unpopular as feck. It could happen due to the mechanics of the FPP system, and if it does, hopefully it'll lead to its abolition.

[minestrone]

Very hard to predict what is going to happen now, so many extra variables, so many different campaign strategies for each party that could work.

An Ed Nick coalition gives me the full on fears. It is possible.

[Doggy Styles]

I wonder what the size of Labour's postal vote (fraud) was?

Labour are in denial, I saw the woman being interviewed last night, said she knew her patch well, ringing endorsement for Ed etc. Yet didn't know why people were voting UKIP in large numbers. She hadn't heard any concerns that would make her think UKIP would do well. Oh well it was only 40% of the voters she didn't hear, guess those 11k must have been out.

Something tells me she won't be an MP for very long.

She sounded thick as sh*t on the radio this morning. For one thing, she was boasting that she'd beaten two Tory parties.

In which case it was lost on her that Tories got more votes than she did - and in a Labour stronghold, and in a by-election when Labour would normally expect to do well.

[ZARDOZ]

I wonder what the size of Labour's postal vote (fraud) was?

Labour are in denial, I saw the woman being interviewed last night, said she knew her patch well, ringing endorsement for Ed etc. Yet didn't know why people were voting UKIP in large numbers. She hadn't heard any concerns that would make her think UKIP would do well. Oh well it was only 40% of the voters she didn't hear, guess those 11k must have been out.

Something tells me she won't be an MP for very long.

[Flashman]

Scraped a win thanks to disaffected Lib Dem voters.

If the Libs ditch Nick Clegg as leader and comeback in the polls Labour are screwed.

I can see Miliband pitching an EU referendum. Might win back a few votes for him and put the Tories / UKIP on the back foot.

[Batcher]

At the GE they will just need to convince Tory voters that splitting the vote with UKIP will give the seat to Labour. Won't take too much to see a lot of Labour seats in the north of England go UKIP whilst SNP look to take 20 seats from Labour in Scotland.

Milliband is a disaster for Labour and they can't change him now as it's in their rules that the leadership can only be voted on at conference.

[vetran]

Labour just about manage to hold on to Heywood and Middleton by only 617 votes.

har har