Reply to: Scottish referendum 2018

[Batcher]

Go to Dublin and ask the locals whether they'd like to rejoin the UK

Uncertain economics

Robert Peston, BBC Economic editor

Here is the bad news if you haven't made up your mind whether to vote for Scotland to become independent - economic analysis cannot give you the answer.

That is partly because this dismal science is not capable of giving wholly (and sometimes even partly) accurate forecasts about the future prosperity of nations.

Look at the case of a comparably sized small country, Ireland. A decade ago many economists (and others) saw it as a rip-roaring success, that had become considerably richer on a per-head basis than the UK.

Then three years ago it looked like a total basket case, as its property sector and banks imploded.

Today it can be seen as a model of how a determined small country can reconstruct its economy in adversity, in stark contrast to the inertia in a bigger country such as Italy.

[Old Greg]

They needed UK support a couple of years ago. Would Ireland have been better off being part of the union? Economically, probably yes.

I disagree. The majority population of Ireland was oppressed for being Irish, and it is hard to see how the Catholic areas of Ireland could have industrialised at the rate they did under UK rule. Scotland suffers no such oppression, thankfully.

[Old Greg]

There are risks with independence, however to suggest voting No is a risk free proposition is also delusional. The point is with independence we can manage those risks locally in the interests of Scoland

What are the risks of independence?

[VectraMan]

I have no doubt that independence would work out fine for iScotland. But the short-term risks are significant. It wasn't all rosy after independence in Ireland, and they still needed UK support in the short-term.

They needed UK support a couple of years ago. Would Ireland have been better off being part of the union? Economically, probably yes.

[Unix]

Agreed, but not apples and oranges, rather big apples and small apples. So the risks are smaller for Scotland - there's not going to be a civil war - but the risks are still there. You've almost admitted it but seem scared to expand on it in case the MSM is waiting to pounce.

There are risks with independence, however to suggest voting No is a risk free proposition is also delusional. The point is with independence we can manage those risks locally in the interests of Scoland

[Old Greg]

Scotland resources dwarf that of Ireland. Apple and oranges.

Agreed, but not apples and oranges, rather big apples and small apples. So the risks are smaller for Scotland - there's not going to be a civil war - but the risks are still there. You've almost admitted it but seem scared to expand on it in case the MSM is waiting to pounce.

[Unix]

I have no doubt that independence would work out fine for iScotland. But the short-term risks are significant. It wasn't all rosy after independence in Ireland, and they still needed UK support in the short-term.



Battle of Dublin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Scotland resources dwarf that of Ireland. Apple and oranges.

[Old Greg]

Go to Dublin and ask the locals whether they'd like to rejoin the UK

I have no doubt that independence would work out fine for iScotland. But the short-term risks are significant. It wasn't all rosy after independence in Ireland, and they still needed UK support in the short-term.

Collins accepted a British offer of artillery loaned by Winston Churchill for use by the new Irish Army, along with 200 from their store of 10,000 shells at Kilmainham, 3 miles away. It is possible that some British troops were also covertly loaned. Two 18 Pounder field guns were placed on Parliament Street and Winetavern Street, across the Liffey from the Four Courts complex, and after a final ultimatum they began their bombardment on 28 June.

Battle of Dublin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[mudskipper]

Go to Dublin and ask the locals whether they'd like to rejoin the UK

[vetran]

my Dad said that about India.

dont know how to run a country, dont have two pennies to rub together. poor as church mice.
no experience.

he was right about all that, but they never dreamt of asking us back

they were too busy fighting amongst themselves.

[EternalOptimist]

Will it take the Scots 4 years to realise that they have made a huge mistake and this is when they plead to come back into the UK

my Dad said that about India.

dont know how to run a country, dont have two pennies to rub together. poor as church mice.
no experience.

he was right about all that, but they never dreamt of asking us back

[VectraMan]

I think the more likely 2018 referendum will be the 'Please let us back in, we've run out of money' vote.

There's no way they're going to manage to go independent in 18 months. They'll still be arguing over currency in 4 years, so the 2018 referendum will be to scrap the whole idea. And by then the Scots will be so sick of all of it, all the promises broken, all the deadlines that came and went, all the money wasted, that they'll vote overwhelmingly to stay in the union (and possibly execute Alex Salmond by catapult).

[DiscoStu]

I think the more likely 2018 referendum will be the 'Please let us back in, we've run out of money' vote.

[Old Greg]

How is this Yes campaign shaping up, anyway? The polls seem to have it neck to neck with the No vote, for the time being, with some giving a slight edge to the No vote, and the Sunday Telegraph a lead to the Yes campaign. Any I missed?

I was hoping the 3 stooges plus Brown as a guest star, plus Farage (perhaps intentionally in his case), would've sufficed to seal the deal.

The bookies are pricing in about a 25% chance of a Yes vote. However, apparently some of this is covering their positions against existing bets, so the real bookies' % is a touch higher.

[BrilloPad]

**** you all.

I'm sending Churchill on an assassination mission to each and every one of you.

He is a marine.

Thats just his online persona. I meet him IRL. He makes Wilmslow look like Arnie.