Reply to: The House of Commons has voted by 312 to 308 to reject a no-deal Brexit.

[Old Greg]

Is that really a card? "Give us what we want or we'll stay"? It's possible, I guess, but still relies on the UK being able to articulate exactly what it is that it wants.




I suspect you're overplaying the EU reliance on UK contributions. Sure, it will require adjustment by the other member states, and in a closed system it might have been tough but still do-able. But it's not a closed system - all the companies relocating their headquarters to the EU will now be paying tax there. I'm not saying that the EU will come out with a net gain (far from it) but equally I don't think they're as worried about it as you suggest.

EU contributions by member staves are largely paid for by import tariffs and now there will be more of them.

[meridian]

Well there's the 'veto' card for one. Those trying to turn the EU into a superstate will be glad to get rid of the UK that would likely continue to push against that plan. In negotiation the UK could have used that to say if a good deal wasn't forthcoming then brexit would be cancelled and the UK would scupper the EU master plan.

Is that really a card? "Give us what we want or we'll stay"? It's possible, I guess, but still relies on the UK being able to articulate exactly what it is that it wants.

However many billion the UK would continue to pay to be part of the EU in some way would be good enough for some countries that rely on EU net subsidisation. How will the EU fill the shortfall if the UK does leave and take its net contributions with it? Trade tariffs?

I suspect you're overplaying the EU reliance on UK contributions. Sure, it will require adjustment by the other member states, and in a closed system it might have been tough but still do-able. But it's not a closed system - all the companies relocating their headquarters to the EU will now be paying tax there. I'm not saying that the EU will come out with a net gain (far from it) but equally I don't think they're as worried about it as you suggest.

[Hobosapien]

Admirable optimism, still thinking that there are cards that the U.K. holds.
Are they in a back cupboard somewhere?

Well there's the 'veto' card for one. Those trying to turn the EU into a superstate will be glad to get rid of the UK that would likely continue to push against that plan. In negotiation the UK could have used that to say if a good deal wasn't forthcoming then brexit would be cancelled and the UK would scupper the EU master plan.

Very few, if any, countries lean this way. Why would “the EU” want to force an obviously belligerent country to remain inside the tent pissing on everyone?

However many billion the UK would continue to pay to be part of the EU in some way would be good enough for some countries that rely on EU net subsidisation. How will the EU fill the shortfall if the UK does leave and take its net contributions with it? Trade tariffs?

[Yorkie62]

...
Example from yesterday: Brexit Secretary Steve Baker stood up in Parliament and made a speech FOR the amendment against No Deal, and then promptly went in and voted AGAINST it.

It's because he didn't know what he was voting for.

[meridian]

The inept government are ignoring what cards we do or could hold.

Admirable optimism, still thinking that there are cards that the U.K. holds.
Are they in a back cupboard somewhere?

Looks like they will either accept May's deal after all

. Possibly. Though forcing a country to accept a treaty that they are not convinced is in their best interests has never ended well, historically.

or go for A50 extension into next year while they try to arrange a different deal on the back of a cross party consensus, a new referendum, or GE. i.e. softer or no brexit at all.

A50 extension will not be granted if the purpose of it is to open up negotiations again. And let’s face it, how likely is “cross party consensus” if the Tory party can’t even agree within their own Cabinet?
Example from yesterday: Brexit Secretary Steve Baker stood up in Parliament and made a speech FOR the amendment against No Deal, and then promptly went in and voted AGAINST it.

A50 extension will be granted as it means the UK will continue to pour billions into the EU as net contributors, unless some countries see it as a way to force UK into May's deal (seeing as UK government has shown it is tulip scared of 'no deal') if they prefer to get UK out of EU power wise and into their pocket (backstop hell).

Very few, if any, countries lean this way. Why would “the EU” want to force an obviously belligerent country to remain inside the tent pissing on everyone?

[Hobosapien]

Wow, never expected that end game. I always thought we held all the cards and the EU would give us exactly what we wanted. Seems that wasn't the case and we're not as powerful as we like to think

The inept government are ignoring what cards we do or could hold. May forcing them to come around to her bad deal, offering no alternative. Labour still playing politics to get a GE and into power instead of forcing the government to come up with a better plan.

Looks like they will either accept May's deal after all or go for A50 extension into next year while they try to arrange a different deal on the back of a cross party consensus, a new referendum, or GE. i.e. softer or no brexit at all.

A50 extension will be granted as it means the UK will continue to pour billions into the EU as net contributors, unless some countries see it as a way to force UK into May's deal (seeing as UK government has shown it is tulip scared of 'no deal') if they prefer to get UK out of EU power wise and into their pocket (backstop hell).

[Whorty]

By being tulip scared of a 'no deal' exit they are now firmly in EU's pocket. They can extend A50, do another referendum, new election, all just wasting time. EU won't budge as they don't need to.

There are only two ways of exiting the EU: No deal; A deal

May has forced them to accept her deal by the weak opposition not having any better idea of what deal would be accepted that fits with 'brexit', allowing the EU to stand firm while the inept UK government paints itself into the backstop trap. They're now already in it.

UK already in backstop hell as 'no deal' is off the table so only a bad deal remains or extend A50 forever while they try to get a better deal out of the EU.

Check mate, says Drunker.

Wow, never expected that end game. I always thought we held all the cards and the EU would give us exactly what we wanted. Seems that wasn't the case and we're not as powerful as we like to think

[Hobosapien]

By being tulip scared of a 'no deal' exit they are now firmly in EU's pocket. They can extend A50, do another referendum, new election, all just wasting time. EU won't budge as they don't need to.

There are only two ways of exiting the EU: No deal; A deal

May has forced them to accept her deal by the weak opposition not having any better idea of what deal would be accepted that fits with 'brexit', allowing the EU to stand firm while the inept UK government paints itself into the backstop trap. They're now already in it.

UK already in backstop hell as 'no deal' is off the table so only a bad deal remains or extend A50 forever while they try to get a better deal out of the EU.

Check mate, says Drunker.

[Yorkie62]

The Titanic is heading towards the iceberg and the crew have decided to move the iceberg further away from the ship. Why change course for icebergs when you can juts keep kicking them down the road.

FTFY

[Brussels Slumdog]

The Titanic is heading towards the iceberg and the crew have voted to remove the iceberg.British ships don't change course for icebergs.

Sent from my SM-A320FL using Contractor UK Forum mobile app

[scooterscot]

Meaningful vote 3 coming up and ERG will vote for May if she quits...So that will be the deal you get

tough to say which will quit first, May or her voice...

[scooterscot]

You have chosen to leave, why can't we?

Only the worthy are permitted.

[darmstadt]

Meaningful vote 3 coming up and ERG will vote for May if she quits...So that will be the deal you get

[Mordac]

It is over. Go home. Nothing to see here.

You have chosen to leave, why can't we?

[shaunbhoy]

I was parodying your posts - why would you expect them to be coherent?

I don't expect any of your gibberish to be coherent. I am seldom disappointed.