Britain’s economy has slowed to a standstill, largely because of Brexit

[darmstadt]

Brexiteers don't like facts. They regard them as muddying the water.

You can't argue with them. They have an idealogy and are wedded to it.

[Cirrus]

Or, as we say, 'facts'

He's not very good at charts and numbers.

Brexiteers don't like facts. They regard them as muddying the water.

You can't argue with them. They have an idealogy and are wedded to it.

[sasguru]

Did you not see the GDP chart?

He's not very good at charts and numbers. That's why he's mistaken actual data for a forecast.

[meridian]

Does IMF and *Forecast mean anything?

In other words, the economy has done well, and some worthless nobodies with a vested interest who supported remain are bitter and producing more meaningless remoaner "sky will fall" bulltulip.

Enjoy the miserly losers!

That’s the spirit! Both our GDP and our wages have been rising at a slower rate than other developed nations (historical, not forecast) and we’re behind where we could have been, but glass half full, amirite?

[Old Greg]

Does IMF and *Forecast mean anything?

In other words, the economy has done well, and some worthless nobodies with a vested interest who supported remain are bitter and producing more meaningless remoaner "sky will fall" bulltulip.

Enjoy the miserly losers!

Did you not see the GDP chart?

[DimPrawn]

Does IMF and *Forecast mean anything?

In other words, the economy has done well, and some worthless nobodies with a vested interest who supported remain are bitter and producing more meaningless remoaner "sky will fall" bulltulip.

Enjoy the miserly losers!

[Whorty]

OPM and the other Brexidiots will be along soon enough to tell us that there will be a brexit dividend and it will provide billions for the NHS, a windfall for the Engllish regions, and unicorns as pets for all

[meridian]

Is The Economist a leftist propaganda magazine full of “experts” that nobody wants to listen to? I can’t keep up with what passes for valid news sources these days...

https://www.economist.com/britain/20...ause-of-brexit

Britain
Jun 20th 2018

FOR some time Britain’s vote in June 2016 to leave the European Union appeared to be having little economic impact. Sterling slumped but GDP growth in the second half of 2016 was faster than in the first. Unemployment fell, rather than jumping, as most economists had feared. Yet the notion that the economy would escape Brexit uncertainty was always fantastical.

Britain’s economy has gone from a leader to a laggard internationally, as GDP growth has slowed sharply (see chart). As The Economist went to press, the monetary-policy committee (MPC) of the Bank of England was expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.5%. The economy is deemed too weak to cope with higher borrowing costs.


A few factors explained the economy’s outperformance in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. The government eased fiscal austerity. In August 2016 the Bank of England cut interest rates to 0.25%. Happily, around the same time the world economy entered its first synchronised upswing since the global financial crisis. Britain is an open economy. Its exporters have benefited from strong foreign demand, especially from the European Union, by far the country’s largest trading partner.

The economic impact of the vote for Brexit is turning out to be less of a sting and more of an ache. Sterling’s referendum-induced decline has made imports pricier. Annual inflation exceeded wage growth for most of 2017. Although inflation has fallen from its recent peak of 3.1%, real wages are still barely growing. Today the average employee’s pay-packet is roughly 3% smaller than might reasonably have been expected in June 2016, when real wages were moving upwards. Brexiteers who emphasised how much Britain allegedly pays to the EU will be interested to learn that, across the whole economy, that adds up to around £350m a week in lost earnings. Growth in household spending, which accounts for some 60% of GDP, has slowed.

That has duly made its mark on overall economic growth. In the first quarter of this year GDP rose by just 0.1%, the slowest rate since 2012. Poor weather at the start of the year hit the construction industry but overall had only a “limited” effect on the economy, according to the national statistics office. Perhaps more importantly, the world economy is slowing. Britain’s exports have dropped for the past two quarters.

The MPC’s decision in November to reverse its post-referendum rate cut, which was motivated by a desire to bring inflation back down to its 2% target, has not helped matters. The prospect of rising borrowing costs may have made the public more cautious. More than half of Britons believe that a further tightening of monetary policy is on the way, the biggest share since 2011. Some households seem inclined to pay down debt or save, rather than to spend. Business investment has stagnated, which may also reflect the fact that the moment when Britain is actually due to leave the EU is fast approaching.

Many economists are now wondering whether Britain is heading for outright recession. Some recent surveys have not been encouraging. After a strong spell in 2017, manufacturing output appears to be falling. Retail sales have picked up—but they are poorly correlated with overall consumer spending. All told, it does not seem pessimistic to expect quarterly GDP growth of a meagre 0.1-0.2% in the second quarter of 2018.

There is little chance of the economy bouncing back soon. Consumer confidence remains low. Businesses have only modest plans for investment in the coming months. In 2018-19 the government appears to be ramping austerity up again as it seeks to close its budget deficit despite a new promise to spend more on the health service. Britain seems to be trapped in a period of low growth. And Brexit has not even happened yet.