Reply to: Brexit dividend

[Old Greg]

Well to be fair, that may have nothing to do with Brexit.
A post-Brexit vote consensus trend growth rate for the UK for the next 5 years of about 1.5% (and that assumes a Soft Brexit) rather than its post-war average of 2% tells us that something's wrong though.

Just enjoying the contrast.

[sasguru]

Ireland also has a load of Amazon jobs coming down the track.



https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0618/97...services-jobs/

Well to be fair, that may have nothing to do with Brexit.
A post-Brexit vote consensus trend growth rate for the UK for the next 5 years of about 1.5% (and that assumes a Soft Brexit) rather than its post-war average of 2% tells us that something's wrong though.

[Old Greg]

I don't know about being a mover and shaker, but I've taken a very well paid role working in Brussels as a direct result of Brexit - one that will enable me to command very high rates when I go back to contracting (probably in Europe, since I think the contracting market in the UK will be poor) in a year or two. These roles would have been created in London before Brexit.
Your question about whether 'movers and shakers' are looking at what is best for the UK or simply what is best for them is irrelevant - the two are not mutually incompatibel as Adam Smith worked out centuries ago.
Clearly it's not good that highly paid, skilled jobs are being created abroad while the UK has low productivity and low wage growth with full employment which suggests the jobs being created in the UK are Uber driving and Amazon delivery.

Now that I've told you what I'm up to, perhaps you can enlighten us on why you think jobs aren't moving abroad? What do you do?

Ireland also has a load of Amazon jobs coming down the track.

Amazon Web Services (AWS), a company offering pay-as-you go cloud and data storage services, is to nearly double its Irish operation with the creation of 1,000 high-skilled technology jobs in Dublin.

The firm, a subsidiary of US online retailer Amazon, said it expects to fill the new roles within two years.

The new jobs will be spread across both AWS and its parent company.

They will be in areas including software engineering, network engineering, data specialisation and machine learning and will be located on Amazon sites in north county Dublin, Blanchardstown and Tallaght.

AWS also officially opened its new Irish headquarters today, an expansion of its existing base on Burlington Road in Dublin city centre.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0618/97...services-jobs/

[sasguru]

Are you a 'mover and shaker'? If so can you enlighten us to what you are exposed to?

If you are not a mover and shaker are therefore everything you get is second hand and therefore spun to the preference of the person telling you this.

And finally do you think the 'movers and shakers' are looking at what is best for the UK or simply what is best for them?

I don't know about being a mover and shaker, but I've taken a very well paid role working in Brussels as a direct result of Brexit - one that will enable me to command very high rates when I go back to contracting (probably in Europe, since I think the contracting market in the UK will be poor) in a year or two. These roles would have been created in London before Brexit.
Your question about whether 'movers and shakers' are looking at what is best for the UK or simply what is best for them is irrelevant - the two are not mutually incompatibel as Adam Smith worked out centuries ago.
Clearly it's not good that highly paid, skilled jobs are being created abroad while the UK has low productivity and low wage growth with full employment which suggests the jobs being created in the UK are Uber driving and Amazon delivery.

Now that I've told you what I'm up to, perhaps you can enlighten us on why you think jobs aren't moving abroad? What do you do?

[Old Greg]

Are you a 'mover and shaker'? If so can you enlighten us to what you are exposed to?

If you are not a mover and shaker are therefore everything you get is second hand and therefore spun to the preference of the person telling you this.

And finally do you think the 'movers and shakers' are looking at what is best for the UK or simply what is best for them?

Before you worry about what is best for the UK, you need to first get a grip on the facts. Then we can have a discussion about what is best for the UK, within the context of reality.

The alternative is to try to decide what is best for the UK within the context of fiction, such as:

[original PM]

Most Brexiters aren't in London or the South East where this is happening and most aren't in the mover-and-shaker roles which would expose them to what's happening.
If you work in IT support, say, for some public sector body or utility in the North, it must seem as if nothing is changing very much.
Certainly politicians of whatever stripe in their Westminster bubble haven't a clue.
By the time it becomes obvious what has happened, it'll be too late - and permanent.

Are you a 'mover and shaker'? If so can you enlighten us to what you are exposed to?

If you are not a mover and shaker are therefore everything you get is second hand and therefore spun to the preference of the person telling you this.

And finally do you think the 'movers and shakers' are looking at what is best for the UK or simply what is best for them?

[sasguru]

Incredible that this is actually happening and has been for a while now yet the Brexiteers are still using the "Scaremongering" tactic.

.

Most Brexiters aren't in London or the South East where this is happening and most aren't in the mover-and-shaker roles which would expose them to what's happening.
If you work in IT support, say, for some public sector body or utility in the North, it must seem as if nothing is changing very much.
Certainly politicians of whatever stripe in their Westminster bubble haven't a clue.
By the time it becomes obvious what has happened, it'll be too late - and permanent.

[motoukenin]

How uplifting to watch the UK march into the financial sunny uplands of a Brexit dividend fuelled NHS spending boom.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...it-mark-boleat

Incredible that this is actually happening and has been for a while now yet the Brexiteers are still using the "Scaremongering" tactic.

Makes you wonder what the budget shortfall will be in 2023 and the effect on the individuals/companies that actually pay the most taxes.

[sasguru]

I also find it interesting that the Brexiteers claim how trading under WTO rules with the EU will be no problem, whilst Trump complains that the US has been losing the trade war with the EU for decades.

The EU will be taking the UK to the cleaners.

Tariffs on pharma products have been largely eliminated by 22 countries including all the EU and the US, because clearly they are a tax on the sick (the barriers in pharma are largely regulatory standards which is fair enough - you want to know your meds are safe).
But given Trump's actions so far, I full expect him to repudiate that agreement thus raising the price of medicines for everyone.

[BlasterBates]

Sadly, the reality is that in the pharma market at least, the UK will have to sign up to the same standards as dictated by the EMA if UK or Japanese/other UK-based pharma companies are to market any drugs in the much larger and profitable EU market.
The only effect Brexit will have on the pharma/life sciences sector in the UK is to shrink it - by how much we don't know yet.

I also find it interesting that the Brexiteers claim how trading under WTO rules with the EU will be no problem, whilst Trump complains that the US has been losing the trade war with the EU for decades.

The EU will be taking the UK to the cleaners.

[sasguru]

On the plus side, a post-Brexit relaxation of ethical standards would provide economic opportunities as clinical trial volunteers for those Brexiteers too unfit to work on fruit farms or down the jam mines.

Sadly, the reality is that in the pharma market at least, the UK will have to sign up to the same standards as dictated by the EMA if UK or Japanese/other UK-based pharma companies are to market any drugs in the much larger and profitable EU market.
The only effect Brexit will have on the pharma/life sciences sector in the UK is to shrink it - by how much we don't know yet.

[Old Greg]

Same thing is happening in my sector: pharma/life sciences.
On the plus side there are signicant strengths in research in UK universities. However that can be replicated elsewhere by simply poaching the best researchers.
In the long term the sector will shrink in the UK, the only unknown is by how much - the UK is simply not as big a market as the EU, and the single payer NHS is under significant funding pressure, fake "Brexit dividend" notwithstanding.
Many of the pharma consultancy cos are establishing offices in Brussels and Amsterdam, jobs that would otherwise have been created in the UK.

On the plus side, a post-Brexit relaxation of ethical standards would provide economic opportunities as clinical trial volunteers for those Brexiteers too unfit to work on fruit farms or down the jam mines.

[BlasterBates]

The government's "vision" is simply to be "in office" so that they can keep their comfortable limousines and other perks.

It's all pointing to a coup in the Spring to put Boris in charge after the UK has crashed out of the EU with what looks like will be a really sh*te deal.

[sasguru]

How uplifting to watch the UK march into the financial sunny uplands of a Brexit dividend fuelled NHS spending boom.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...it-mark-boleat

Same thing is happening in my sector: pharma/life sciences.
On the plus side there are signicant strengths in research in UK universities. However that can be replicated elsewhere by simply poaching the best researchers.
In the long term the sector will shrink in the UK, the only unknown is by how much - the UK is simply not as big a market as the EU, and the single payer NHS is under significant funding pressure, fake "Brexit dividend" notwithstanding.
Many of the pharma consultancy cos are establishing offices in Brussels and Amsterdam, jobs that would otherwise have been created in the UK.

[Old Greg]

Is your use of the word 'uplifting', meant to be conveyed in the same way JRM described foodbanks?

You're on the ball today. Good work!