Talking down the economy

[Bean]

Why bet against a currency that will disappear when May sends a letter to invoke Article 49?

Because if you hold a short position (as I stated previously), that would give you the most money possible for your short position!!
(Did you engage your brain before posting?)


So follow my directions above, if that is what YOU truly believe will happen.......as I said earlier

[BlasterBates]

The phrase "I'm alright Jack" springs to mind.

Rees-Mogg to make a fortune when Britain leaves the single market

[m0n1k3r]

(Has Soros bet $1 Billion against sterling again? No? Well, he can't be confident in the demise of the UK and GBP then can he?)

Why bet against a currency that will disappear when May sends a letter to invoke Article 49?

[Bean]

Yes, he really needs it to. And how is he doing that? By advocating for Brexit and betting that Brexit will be a disaster for the U.K. And he’s not the only one advocating for a hard Brexit and setting up to profit from it.

Follow the money, Bean.

Well, anyone is free to do the same, if that's what they believe.

i.e.
1) Setup a spreadbetting account with any number of providers
2) Deposit as much cash as your are confident
3) Create the same short-sell position as that guy
4) Wait for your profits

Or are you (and everyone else too) completely in the dark about the end result and therefore not willing to risk your money?

As I said, he NEEDS it to, he needs a 900%+ gain to recover his lost value, otherwise his fund manager credibility is shot and therefore, his career.

(Has Soros bet $1 Billion against sterling again? No? Well, he can't be confident in the demise of the UK and GBP then can he?)

[meridian]

The guy has lost 93% of the value of his fund since 2015.

He doesn't just want it to tank, he really needs it to.

(Patriotism [or lack of] doesn't come into it, he's trying to salvage his cushy job!)

This is his last throw of the dice before the fund closes and his obscurity.

Yes, he really needs it to. And how is he doing that? By advocating for Brexit and betting that Brexit will be a disaster for the U.K. And he’s not the only one advocating for a hard Brexit and setting up to profit from it.

Follow the money, Bean.

[Bean]

Who has something to gain by talking down the economy? Apart from Rees-Mogg, that is.

An outspoken advocate for Brexit, yet betting that the economy will tank. Sounds like a true patriot.

https://www.ft.com/content/27c53024-...0-52972418fec4

The guy has lost 93% of the value of his fund since 2015.

He doesn't just want it to tank, he really needs it to.
(Patriotism [or lack of] doesn't come into it, he's trying to salvage his cushy job!)

This is his last throw of the dice before the fund closes and his obscurity.

[meridian]

Who has something to gain by talking down the economy? Apart from Rees-Mogg, that is.

An outspoken advocate for Brexit, yet betting that the economy will tank. Sounds like a true patriot.

https://www.ft.com/content/27c53024-...0-52972418fec4

British hedge fund manager Crispin Odey is betting on a sharp fall in the value of UK government debt, having amassed a leveraged short position worth more than the entire value of his fund.

Mr Odey, an outspoken advocate for Brexit, now holds a short against long-dated bonds worth 154.8 per cent of the €173m net total value of his European fund’s assets, according to investor documents seen by the Financial Times. Such a position will generate significant profits if UK government debt prices decline, pushing up yields.

The bet against the long gilt future expiring in June, a derivative contract tied to the value of UK government debt, is Mr Odey’s single largest position that he has been holding and increasing in size since November 2016, five months after the Brexit vote.


A spokesman for Mr Odey declined to comment on the trade. Mr Odey, who donated money to the campaign that backed the UK to leave the EU, has expressed bearish views on the outlook for the economy and companies given the devaluation of sterling.

Following several years of painful losses caused by bearish bets gone wrong, Mr Odey’s fund has made a strong start to 2018, gaining 12 per cent. This follows a 49.5 per cent loss in 2016 and a 21.7 per cent loss last year.

The value of assets managed by his flagship Odey European fund have dropped from €2.5bn at the start of 2015 to €173m.

Given the lower volatility of fixed-income assets compared with equities, investors are more willing to take on large amounts of leverage when building significant positions. Longer dated debt, such as that tied to Mr Odey’s trade, is the most sensitive to interest rates and inflation expectations, meaning it will fall the most should they rise.

The yield on the 30-year gilt rose from about 1.8 per cent to 2 per cent this year but has subsequently fallen back to where it stood in early January.

Mr Odey’s fund has also been selling short the shares of companies he believes are exposed to a weaker UK currency, such as the high street retailer Debenhams.

He argued in an investor presentation last year that the UK was at risk of a sharp rise in inflation, and that the economy was likely to suffer in the longer term as a result of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing bond-buying activities.

“In the UK where, after all, we have had a central bank who have, basically, carried on doing QE into uncertainty of Brexit and, of course, what they are now faced with is encouraging individuals to save even less and to borrow,” Mr Odey said.

“Now you have a situation whereby your inflation rate, as we know, in the UK is at 3.1 per cent, you have got the public sector borrowing with a cap at 1.5 per cent, but now there is a lot of pressure to release that cap, because why shouldn’t they get some money.”

The UK economy has performed more strongly than many economists expected since the Brexit vote, with tax receipts higher and public sector borrowing lower than had been forecast.