However, the ECB’s credibility problem is modest compared to the Bank of England’s. A recent book All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sunk Britain's Political Class by Sunday Times political editor Tim Shipman, records that the stakes on both sides of the Brexit battle were so high that the Geneva Convention was almost breached, despite of course the veneer of politeness being meticulously observed by all actors at all times. Patrick Minford played a small but significant late part. Many had been sceptical when the Bank of England’s ‘gravity model’ based forecasts for a Brexit sparked recession were published. Minford knew these were not only wrong but carefully constructed ‘fixed’ models intended to influence the referendum. He formed a group of only perhaps ten economists who called themselves “Economists for Brexit,” and enjoyed substantial airtime. Now, more than six months later, the modelling is discredited and Carney has faced resignation calls
The Bank of England upgraded its growth expectations for 2017 on Thursday, offering a much rosier view of Britain's economic prospects than the doom and gloom forecasts it produced in the wake of the Brexit vote.
The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.
Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question.
Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question.
The forecasts published alongside the interest rate decision were for economic growth to edge up to 1.9% this year from 1.8% in 2016. That 2017 forecast was little changed from a 2% prediction made in February
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