Reply to: An Assessment of the Economic Impact or Brexit on the EU27

[Troll]

Management Summary

The number of EU27 citizens living in the UK at the end of 2016 is estimated at 3.35 million

As we known all along .. too many

The stock of UK fooktards, bitter Scots and assorted flotsam living in EU 27 countries is substantially less, namely 1,217,000
according to OECD data

with substantial numbers in agriculture, retailing, construction, nursing and medicine, home care,.

Just what we don't need - more low grade migrants

the atmosphere surrounding immigrants for the EU has become unsettled to say the least, with
disturbing manifestations of xenophobic tendencies in parts of society.

Shirley not

[PurpleGorilla]

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/...-central-bank/

The Central Bank's Chief Economist has told an Oireachtas committee that Ireland stands out as the EU economy likely to be most affected by Brexit.

Gabriel Fagan told the Special Select Committee on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union that Ireland was more reliant on UK export markets that any other EU country.

He added that certain sectors - agri-food; materials manufacturing and tourism - rely more upon UK markets than others.

Mr Fagan said the overall impact of Brexit of the Irish economy is uncertain, and depends on the nature of any new trade agreement.

In the event of a hard Brexit with no UK-EU trade agreement, Mr Fagan said GDP would fall by 3%.

[PurpleGorilla]

Yes. Look house prices today in the UK. Unshackled fiscal rules are working out a treat wouldn't you say?

Did I say the UK is without problems?

There is another economic crisis coming, you can smell it on the wind. IMHO the Eurozone are really going to struggle, because of a toxic combination of inertia, rigidity, and ironically a lack of fiscal integration. I wish you luck, I really do.

[sal]

I think the impact is understated for the EU, or rather 3-5 countries will feel a greater impact than the rest. This impact will be less than what the UK feels however, 1) we are more agile and dynamic unshackled to a shared currency and tighter fiscal rules, 2) see point one!

You didn't even read the report and decided to repeat the mantra that EU will be worse off than the UK...

The impact for UK in terms of % of GDP is 11.9% for import and 7.1% for exports. For reference the most impacted EU27 state as a % of GDP - RoI the numbers are at 9% for imports and 6.9% for exports.

And this is only goods, ignoring Services, where the disparity is much greater.

But keep dreaming the UK will be less affected than any individual EU27 state

[scooterscot]

I think the impact is understated for the EU, or rather 3-5 countries will feel a greater impact than the rest. This impact will be less than what the UK feels however, 1) we are more agile and dynamic unshackled to a shared currency and tighter fiscal rules, 2) see point one!

Yes. Look house prices today in the UK. Unshackled fiscal rules are working out a treat wouldn't you say?

[vetran]

I think the impact is understated for the EU, or rather 3-5 countries will feel a greater impact than the rest. This impact will be less than what the UK feels however, 1) we are more agile and dynamic unshackled to a shared currency and tighter fiscal rules, 2) see point one!

its the rich man going out with poorer mates story, France & Germany will stump up more when we leave.

[PurpleGorilla]

One imagines the service sectors in this report are indeed the banks, which are moving out anyway.

The remaining is consumables and manufacturing. You then look at what the EU exports to the rest of the world and the UK exports issues suddenly melts away.

I think the impact is understated for the EU, or rather 3-5 countries will feel a greater impact than the rest. This impact will be less than what the UK feels however, 1) we are more agile and dynamic unshackled to a shared currency and tighter fiscal rules, 2) see point one!

[milanbenes]

It would be nice to read the British equivalent document written by the government.

Fairplay to the EU for publishing it.

Milan.

[diseasex]

JUst going down to your level.

At least you still have further to go. I am sure the cretin-in-chief will be along shortly.....

Say that to my face

[scooterscot]

Just a hypothesis, but surely our largest EU27 trading partners will disproportionally be impacted through brexit compared to the rest of the EU27?

One imagines the service sectors in this report are indeed the banks, which are moving out anyway.

The remaining is consumables and manufacturing. You then look at what the EU exports to the rest of the world and the UK exports issues suddenly melts away.

[PurpleGorilla]

An Assessment of the Economic Impact or Brexit on the EU27

The analysis is good but fundamentally flawed.

By contrasting the UK to the EU27 it assumes a universal impact to losses to the EU27.

However we do not trade universally to the EU27 nor do the EU27 with us.

Just a hypothesis, but surely our largest EU27 trading partners will disproportionally be impacted through brexit compared to the rest of the EU27?

For example:



This source suggests Ireland will be most affected (which makes sense) https://www.slideshare.net/mobile/Eu...goods-industry

[scooterscot]

Of course, its a totally unbiased report. Not in any way designed to influence the UK general election.

The report was published before a GE election was called. You vacuous numty you.

[BrilloPad]

You just went full retard.

JUst going down to your level.

At least you still have further to go. I am sure the cretin-in-chief will be along shortly.....

[diseasex]

For a thick Bremoaner cretin, its found at the top. i.e. the usual place

For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK, the losses could be highly significant, over ten times greater as a share of GDP.

Of course, its a totally unbiased report. Not in any way designed to influence the UK general election.

You just went full retard.

[BrilloPad]

Any summary?

For a thick Bremoaner cretin, its found at the top. i.e. the usual place

For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK, the losses could be highly significant, over ten times greater as a share of GDP.

Of course, its a totally unbiased report. Not in any way designed to influence the UK general election.