Bring back John Major

[Mich the Tester]

It chose to - it didn't have to.

If the UK leaves the EU, there is no reason to suppose that we cannot negotiate with the EU. The EU is free to adapt its rules based on circumstances outside itself as well as inside.

You can indeed negotiate; the question is how strong your negotiating position will be and whether you'll get a better deal than Cameron can get in his negotiations with Merkel inside the EU. I think he can get a good deal from those negotiations.

Oh and Switzerland didn't have much choice as it's surrounded by the EU and needs free trade with them. In fact what Switzerland has done is give in to all EU demands simply to take part in the economic zone but can't join because the Swiss electorate are opposed to it. Basically they've joined the EU as a non-voting member but nobody in Switzerland's governing parties dares to say that openly.

[Platypus]

OK, so this 'dip'. How deep would the 'dip' be and how much damage would it cause?

As against, how much damage does remaining in cause?

The analysis I've read in this book:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Au-Revoir-Eu.../dp/1849541213

thought that on balance we'd be better off after 2-3 years thereafter on an upward curve instead of as now, on a neverending downward curve.

Of course, no one can accurately enumerate the benefits of being in as against being out. If they could, the argument would be cut and dried!

[Old Greg]

You can indeed negotiate; the question is how strong your negotiating position will be and whether you'll get a better deal than Cameron can get in his negotiations with Merkel inside the EU. I think he can get a good deal from those negotiations.

Oh and Switzerland didn't have much choice as it's surrounded by the EU and needs free trade with them. In fact what Switzerland has done is give in to all EU demands simply to take part in the economic zone but can't join because the Swiss electorate are opposed to it. Basically they've joined the EU as a non-voting member but nobody in Switzerland's governing parties dares to say that openly.

Have they not joined the EU as a non-voting member and with immigration and foreign property ownership controls? (Genuine question - I don't know much about Switzerland).

[Mich the Tester]

Of course, no one can accurately enumerate the benefits of being in as against being out. If they could, the argument would be cut and dried!

Oh OK at least you're honest about that; I can't really enumerate it either, but I don't support radical changes in the status quo without having a much better enumeration of the effects. In fact I generally favour gradual change anyway; sort of 'conservative' if you like.

I just think that at the moment many people in Britain are underestimating how much the European Union idea is in flux and how much opportunity that offers for the British PM to get a better deal, so it really is too early to conclude that Britain should be out. Maybe Britain would be better out of the EU as it is now or as some federalists once hoped it would be, but maybe not; what we don't know is what the EU is going to look like in ten years time. I think it will look very different, much more about free trade and business and less about 'integration' and hopefully with a slimmed down bureaucracy and there's a huge opportunity now for the UK to be part of shaping that. But I see things from a different angle because I'm right here in Euroland and hear the debates, discuss things here and perhaps I see developments that aren't so obvious to people in Britain.

[Mich the Tester]

Have they not joined the EU as a non-voting member and with immigration and foreign property ownership controls? (Genuine question - I don't know much about Switzerland).

Effectively yes, but not officially. Immigration has limited controls; they share the free movement area with Europe but they're stricter about chucking people out if they can't earn a living. In other words, you (assuming you're an EU citizen) can go to Switzerland, spend 3 months looking for a job, find one and stay as long as you like and even benefit from Swiss social security if you have paid in, but if you don't have a means of supporting yourself or you attempt to get non-contribution based benefits they can chuck you out. Just like any EU country can do, actually, but some countries don't seem to do and just whinge about foreigners on benefits instead when they could actually quite legally chuck a lot of them out. They've allowed all this as part of the deal to get free trade with the EU.

Foreign property ownership is dependent on the canton; some allow it, some don't, most people there rent anyway.

[sasguru]

One effect that is almost certain from withdrawal from the EU is that most of the car companies would relocate elsewhere. The Japs are only here as a springboard into Europe, and I bet the Germans would put tariffs on what then become non-EU made cars.
(Nissan, for certain) and Tata (Jag/LR) have AFAIK both said they would move factories elsewhere if we did leave.

[Old Greg]

One effect that is almost certain from withdrawal from the EU is that most of the car companies would relocate elsewhere. The Japs are only here as a springboard into Europe, and I bet the Germans would put tariffs on what then become non-EU made cars.
(Nissan, for certain) and Tata (Jag/LR) have AFAIK both said they would move factories elsewhere if we did leave.

Sure, but we could strike back with internal demand for the Maxi and Metro.

[Platypus]

I just think that at the moment many people in Britain are underestimating how much the European Union idea is in flux and how much opportunity that offers for the British PM to get a better deal, so it really is too early to conclude that Britain should be out. Maybe Britain would be better out of the EU as it is now or as some federalists once hoped it would be, but maybe not; what we don't know is what the EU is going to look like in ten years time. I think it will look very different, much more about free trade and business and less about 'integration' and hopefully with a slimmed down bureaucracy and there's a huge opportunity now for the UK to be part of shaping that. But I see things from a different angle because I'm right here in Euroland and hear the debates, discuss things here and perhaps I see developments that aren't so obvious to people in Britain.

Very good points. But w.r.t. "I think it will look very different, much more about free trade and business and less about 'integration'" I don't agree, much though I'd like you to be right.

I'll wager you a pint! In ten year's time let's see whose round it is!

[Old Greg]

Very good points. But w.r.t. "I think it will look very different, much more about free trade and business and less about 'integration'" I don't agree, much though I'd like you to be right.

I'll wager you 568ml! In ten year's time let's see whose round it is!

FTFY

[Platypus]

and Tata (Jag/LR) have AFAIK both said they would move factories elsewhere if we did leave.

Calendar year to date [October 2013], Jaguar sold 63,410 vehicles up 41% with increases in each major region: the China Region up 139%, North America up 39%, Asia Pacific up 27%, the UK up 19%, Europe up 18% and other overseas markets up 33%

Calendar year to date [October 2013], Land Rover sold 283,525 vehicles up 14% with increases in all major regions: Asia Pacific up 31%, North America, the UK and the China Region all up 14%, Europe up 4% and other overseas markets up 20%

Humm. I doubt they'd move. Their market isn't mainland Europe.